"The Epoch of Competition": how the US is preparing for a possible conflict with Russia and China

A group of US Air Force experts from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) prepared the report Air Force in an Era of Power Rivalry. The 210-page document is dedicated to air doctrine, bundling, and the development paths of the US Air Force.

The main adversary in it is Russia - the document contains 432 references to the Russian Federation, on average, twice on each page (for comparison, China is mentioned only 271 times). “Russia can strike at targets anywhere in Europe”, “Scenario of the future conflict in the Baltic Sea”, “Scenario of the Russian aggression in the Baltic States” are just some of the headings of various sections of the document.

One of the central themes of the report is a potential conflict between the US and Russia in Europe, in particular, in the Baltic. Its cause, according to the authors, should be Moscow’s desire to regain the status of a “great power”.

“In Europe, a resurgent Russia seeks to regain the status of a great power by attempting to establish control over the states of the former USSR and the Warsaw Pact countries, thereby undermining the integrity and authority of NATO. Russia's loss of control over these territories after the end of the Cold War led to the loss of the traditional buffer zone, and also increased its perception of vulnerability on the country's western border, ”the report authors say.

Further, they say that to achieve their goals in the post-Soviet space, Russia uses “military, economic, informational and other instruments of influence.”

“Among the latest examples of this kind are the Russian attack on Georgia in 2008, the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine. Hope for Russia's liberalization after the Cold War sharply disagrees with the current open praise by the Russian leadership of the advantages of conservative authoritarianism and calls for the establishment of a "post-Western" world order, the report says.

Fleet problems

Among the authors of the report are former commanders of American aviation with a rank not lower than colonel. In order to be ready for possible conflicts, and especially with Russia, CSBA experts suggest the Pentagon and the US Congress to invest more in modernizing the fleet.

“It will take years to rebuild America’s air force after nearly three decades of“ vacation ”to purchase advanced aircraft. Further delay will threaten the fact that the US Air Force will lag behind the military development of China and Russia, "the report says.

• In one of the conflict scenarios presented by the authors, Russia invades Lithuania.

Domestic analysts say that such reports are usually required only to justify an increase in the budget for the Pentagon. And an impressive part of this money will go to the production of new weapons.

“The American experts in the report considered the threats that may arise in the boundless future and never be realized. Lobbying efforts in allocating funds depend on such “expert” assessments: the longer the report, the more money with its help will be available for new programs, the more diligently the congressmen will seek funding, ”the expert from the International Institute for Humanities said in an interview with RT. Political Studies Vladimir Bruter.

Acquaintance with purpose

While CSBA experts are developing conflict scenarios and plans to modernize the fleet and infrastructure of the US Air Force, the US command is already conducting training sessions, which should prepare pilots for aerial clashes with a potential enemy.

• Su-57 multifunctional fighters during demonstration flights
• © Alexey Filippov / RIA News

Thus, in March, the Air Force Directorate placed an application for contractors to create air targets that would have the characteristics of such “advanced enemy aircraft”, such as the Russian Su-57 fighter and the Chinese J-20 and FC-31 (also known as J-31).

In addition, the US Air Force also announced a competition for recruiting helicopter instructors Sikorsky HH-60 Pave Hawk for training in flight tactics and maneuvers in the airspace of “theaters of operations with the presence of enemy helicopters” - Soviet and Russian percussion machines MI-24.

American aviation portals reported that in January 2017, witnesses managed to capture a training battle of an American F-15 fighter and a Soviet Su-27 in the sky over Nevada, where several US Air Force bases are located.

In September 2017, an airplane crashed at Nellis airbase, resulting in the death of the commander of the Red Hats squadron, which performed training flights as a conditional enemy. Information about the incident was classified, and as a result, US military and aviation experts suggested that a Soviet or Russian-made fighter could have participated in the flight.

Tripartite conflict

In addition to the confrontation with Russia, the authors of the report point to the likely conflict between the US and China in the Pacific region.

“As part of the process of restoring its power, influence and well-being, China seeks to expand control over the disputed territories within the“ first chain of islands ”in the western Pacific, undermine confidence in the United States as a guarantor of regional security and ultimately establish its dominant role there,” - the document says.

• The authors of the report assess the possibility of a collision between the USA and China

Recall that the water area of ​​the South China Sea and the groups of the Paracel Islands located in it and the Spratly archipelago are contested by several states at once: China, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines.

The islands are of strategic importance, as they pass the sea routes connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans through the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. Ships from Europe, India, and the Middle East to Japan, China, and Korea go this route.

American warships regularly pass by disputed islands as part of operations to maintain "freedom of navigation." The PRC disputes such actions, calling them an encroachment on the sovereignty of China.

In turn, the experts of the US Air Force in their report argue that Beijing "lures and intimidates the allies and partners of the United States in the region."

“These actions are based on the large-scale military buildup that began back in the 1990s, which ensured China’s substantial superiority over its neighbors and allowed it to partially compensate for the US military advantage that had been preserved for many years. Chinese military modernization programs, supported by measures to strengthen control over important areas in the South China and East China Seas, are designed to cast doubt on the ability of the US military to exert decisive influence within the “first chain of islands” to protect its allies and partners in the region, ”the report says.

Destabilization Rate

According to military expert Yuri Knutov, the United States is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia or with China, but at the same time, Washington adheres to the “Trojan horse strategy,” which does not imply open military confrontation.

“Americans destabilize the situation with the help of sanctions. The Pentagon is working on scenarios in which the US Air Force will disable the main defense systems of anti-missile and air defense, and in the resulting chaos will block the main strategic and offensive forces of Russia or China. It is for this scenario that the US armed forces are being completely restructured, ”said the expert.

Yuri Knutov also stressed that the administration of the 45th President of the United States enjoys the support of lobbyists of the military-industrial complex, and in return it increases spending on new weapons and provides billions in profits to corporations.

“Trump came to power with a developed program that included the reformation of the navy and air forces, the nuclear triad. This report is needed so that there is no reason to reduce military spending.

The US president is trying to please the American military lobby: he makes donations to the military-industrial complex, created a program to increase military spending, and began an arms race in which he is trying to drag Russia. For Moscow, the main thing now is to create new types of weapons that would be superior to the American ones, ”the expert concluded.