"Strong psychological effect": how Brexit could affect the mood of the Irish radicals

Representatives of the Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) strongly condemned the actions of the New Irish Republican Army, due to which Mediahazer journalist Lyra McKee died a few days ago. Parliamentarian Gregory Campbell (DUP) called the militant group "insane."

According to Campbell, there is nothing surprising in the fact that "the murderers and renegades" will try to justify their actions with the current political agenda, although the same structures "committed crimes and terrorist acts twenty years before the referendum on secession from the EU."

“There was no justification for terrorism, nor can there be. Unfortunately, some replicate the topic of violence in an attempt to disrupt brexit, ”the politician recalled, commenting on the statement made by the“ New IRA ”the day before.

• Police inspect the place of death of a journalist Lyra Mackey.
• Reuters
• © Clodagh Kilcoyne

Recall, the employee of the American edition of Mediagazer (USA) Lyra Mackey was injured during the riots that began in the city of Londonderry on April 18. The journalist died in hospital from her injury, the police qualified the incident as a terrorist act. A case was also opened into the murder. Militiamen managed to detain two suspects.

As representatives of the New IRA later stated, McKee accidentally came under fire, which was unmasked by masked men at the police.

“In the course of how (our forces) attacked the enemy, Lyra Mackey was tragically killed because she was standing next to the enemy forces,” the organization said, adding that they bring “sincere apologies” to the relatives and friends of the journalist.

• Reuters
• © Clodagh Kilcoyne

The statement was published in The Irish News, and soon the representatives of the group were interviewed by The Sunday Times. The radicals said that the UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU and the prospect of a tough border on the island prompted Irish youth to join the militarized structure. In addition, in the "New IRA" believe that none of the legal parties now represent the interests of young people.

“There are no more left-wing political parties,” the IRA said, stressing that Sinn Fein had long since become a centrist party.

The radicals explained that with their shares they want to make the world understand that the conflict in Northern Ireland is continuing.

“Our armed actions have only one goal - to be a symbol and propaganda,” the IRA said.

The group understands that their actions are condemned by society, but this is nothing new, because "Irish republicanism has always had few adherents."

The confrontation between Ireland and England dates back many centuries - for the first time British troops conquered part of the Emerald Isle in the 12th century. In 1801, Ireland was incorporated into the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.

After the First World War in Ireland, the struggle for independence intensified. The Irish Republican Army launched hostilities against the British security forces.

In 1921, the southern districts of Ireland gained independence (since 1949 - the Republic of Ireland); only six northern counties remained in the United Kingdom, populated mostly by Protestants. Now this region is called Northern Ireland, the situation here remained turbulent until 1998, when the signing of the Good Friday Agreement (Belfast Agreement) put an end to armed clashes between Catholics and Protestants, as well as the terrorist attacks of the IRA. The key provision of the treaty was the elimination of the rigid border between the Republic of Ireland and the Irish territories of the United Kingdom.

However, the IRA announced officially the refusal of armed methods of warfare only in 2005.

"Reverse effect"

The Belfast Agreement did not satisfy all IRA members. There was a split in the organization, which resulted in the emergence of the “Real Irish Republican Army” (Real IRA), which advocated the continuation of the struggle for unification. In 2012, the structure was named “New IRA” (New IRA), it is listed as a terrorist organization in the United States and the United Kingdom.

“We have not solved the problems that existed even before the signing of the Belfast Agreement. Now they are talking about holding a referendum on the status of the border, but this decision remains for the British minister. The UK still has the right to impose a veto on Irish sovereignty, ”said one of the group members in an interview with The Sunday Times.

• Members of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), 1977.
• AFP

The organization is a serious threat, experts say. The recent attack in Londonderry - not the first armed uprising of the "New IRA" in recent times. In March, the radicals sent homemade bombs to London airports, railway stations, and the University of Glasgow in Scotland.

As the head of the Center for Political Integration of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Lyudmila Babynina noted in an interview with “New IRA”, it is leading purely terrorist activity, promoting young people to join their ranks.

“It is the young people who do not know what the situation looked like when violence on the street was normal. Young people are easier to radicalize than those who remember the past level of violence and do not want to return it. As for the objectives of the "New IRA", they are trying by their actions to push the authorities to hold a referendum on the unification of the two Ireland. But this, of course, will cause the opposite effect, ”the expert noted.

In January, the group blew up a car next to the courthouse in Londonderry. The police managed to evacuate all the people after they received a message about the impending attack. The organizers of the explosion threatened with new violent actions against the authorities of the United Kingdom.

In January, the British Cabinet approved funding for peacekeeping activities in Northern Ireland in the amount of £ 300 million (about $ 382 million). The project is called PEACE Plus, it will replace the PEACE program ending next year.

However, in London they are not in a hurry to completely erase the history of the conflict from memory. On April 28, Scotland Yard resumed its investigation into the death of British Conservative Party MP Airy Niva. One of Margaret Thatcher’s closest associates was blown up in his car by IRA members in 1979.

“If any potential clues are discovered, the police will carefully examine them to bring the perpetrators to justice,” said British Interior Minister Sajid Javid.

According to the doctor of political sciences, professor of Moscow State University Andrei Manoilo, the resumption of a criminal investigation of a case fifty years ago is directly related to today's aggravation in Ulster.

“By resuming the procedural actions in the 1979 case, Scotland Yard was granted the right to conduct operational search activities in relation to all who identify themselves as an IRA. The police acted reasonably, because a new generation of extremists appeared who are trying to prove to everyone that they are the successors of the IRA, ”the expert explained in an interview with RT.

Endless deadlock

The ideas of the armed struggle for the reunification of the Irish do not find a wide response in Northern Ireland, but in general, the future of the region is worrying very many, experts say.

According to Manoilo, dissatisfaction with the plans of London along the Irish border in Northern Ireland is really great, because the problem is not solved, but only postponed for a while.

“The existing peace treaty suggests that there should be no borders between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Brexit automatically violates this contract and creates a border. The Irish are alarmed and worried, although this does not mean that they are ready to take up arms as the New IRA suggests, the expert added.

• Brexit supporters rally, March 2019.
• Reuters
• © Dylan Martinez

The presence of the United Kingdom as part of the EU made it possible to preserve the transparency of the border on the island for goods, capital and people, but the upcoming Brexit put the question of reformatting the border regime in front of London.

Retaining the same level of transparency of the borders, the UK, in fact, will retain the old order of turnover of goods and capital from the EU, which will negate the results of brexit. In addition, the UK may encounter problems when searching for new trading partners because of the “window” on the border with such a powerful trade association like the European Union. Another option, in which the new customs border will pass through the Irish Sea, is unacceptable for London - this would mean the economic separation of Northern Ireland from the state.

The creation of a rigid border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in turn, will not allow Dublin and Brussels. Although it was originally planned that the UK would withdraw from the EU at the end of March 2019, London had to take a postponement until October 31 to find an acceptable solution on the Irish border.

According to Manoilo, the fact that brexit provoked a lot of problems could have been assumed in advance, but the leadership of the Conservative Party was thinking at that moment about its political interests.

“When David Cameron’s personal rating began to fall, he wanted to show everyone that he was a politician who could squeeze concessions from the EU. He began to blackmail the EU with Brexit, and when he realized that the project should be curtailed, the point of no return was passed, ”the expert recalled.

Now London has no idea how to solve the issue of the Irish border, said Babynina. This uncertainty and the hypothetical probability of a new division of the Irish provoke radicals to intensify, the expert notes.

“The activity of the“ New IRA ”is not supported by anyone, including the Irish nationalists, but the thought of restoring the border scares everyone. This can not only damage the cross-border business, contacts of people, but also produce a very strong psychological effect. The appearance of checkpoints will immediately remind you of the roadblocks that were here until the end of the last century and were the targets of the attacks, ”the expert concluded.