"Step to an open war": what can the expansion of the control zone of Ukraine in the Black Sea lead to

The Verkhovna Rada on December 6 in the second reading adopted the law “On the Adjacent Zone of Ukraine”. In international maritime law, this term refers to the part of the water area adjacent to the territorial sea. The contiguous zone is not under the sovereignty of any state, but the country claiming its rights to it exercises here border and customs control.

According to the document, the water area in the Black Sea will be doubled to 24 nautical miles. According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, this is the maximum space that a state can assign to its adjacent maritime zone.

As one of the authors of the document, the ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from the Petro Poroshenko Bloc faction, and now Minister for Veterans Affairs Irina Freese, explained, this bill will allow "de facto to double the territory of control in the Black Sea."

"Goes on provocation"

In November of this year, when the draft law on the contiguous zone was adopted in the first reading, it was criticized by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova. In particular, according to her, the provisions of this document are not applicable to the Sea of ​​Azov, since its legal status is governed by the Russian-Ukrainian Agreement on Cooperation in the Use of the Sea of ​​Azov and the Kerch Strait of 2003.

• Satellite photo of the Azov Sea
• NASA

This agreement is indefinite and does not imply unilateral withdrawal. Therefore, the Sea of ​​Azov is considered to be the inland waters of both Russia and Ukraine, and cutting out a special “Ukrainian zone” in it contradicts international legal legislation.

"Issues of delimitation of the adjacent zones of Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea should be resolved by agreement of the parties, as provided for by international law, including existing bilateral treaties," Zakharova added.

As noted in an interview with RT professor of Moscow State University. Mv Lomonosov Andrei Manoilo, Ukraine is striving unilaterally to secure for itself the 24-mile sector in the Sea of ​​Azov in addition to the advantages that Kiev received under the 2003 treaty.

“Therefore, they did not cancel this agreement,” the expert explained in an interview with RT.

At the same time, the ground for a potential conflict is also created by the non-recognition by Ukraine of the fact that the terms of the contract have partially changed, and the Kerch Strait now fully applies to the internal waters of Russia.

“Now Ukraine is proving to be provocative and trying to test how stable this new regime is,” says Andrey Manoilo.

"Direct fire contact"

According to the official Kiev, the adoption of the law on the adjacent zone is necessary to ensure the security of the country, in particular, the fight against smugglers.

According to the new document, Ukrainian border guards will have the right to inspect all ships appearing in the adjacent marine zone of Ukraine. The explanatory note to the document notes that the threat, in particular, is Russia, which allegedly leads “illegal economic activities involving the merchant fleet under the Russian flag and the flags of third countries”.

In addition, under the new law, Ukrainian border guards are allowed to use weapons without warning during a clash at sea with military of other countries or armed groups.

As Oleg Bondarenko, Director of the Foundation for Progressive Policy, noted in an interview with RT, the new Ukrainian law increases the likelihood of clashes in the waters of the Black and Azov Seas.

“Any provocation makes it even more possible to have a direct fire contact,” notes Bondarenko.

So, according to experts, from now on, civilian vessels can also become objects of close attention of the Ukrainian security services. According to international standards, they will be in the open sea, but the border guards may well consider that the ships are in their zone of control.

Back in the spring of 2018, the detention of the Russian vessel “Nord” by Ukrainian security forces in the Sea of ​​Azov marked another aggravation in relations between Moscow and Kiev. Now, as experts predict, the number of such incidents is likely to increase. Not excluded and provocations against the Russian military and border guards.

• Seiner "Nord" captured by Ukrainian border guards
• © State Border Guard Service of Ukraine

“This is another step towards open war, and we must understand that Ukraine is trying to unleash this war by passing such laws,” Bondarenko said.

The RT source in the Batkivshchyna party also suggested that the law passed by the Rada allows the commander in chief to use force at sea.

“All these actions can lead to conflict in the Black or Azov seas. And it will be profitable Poroshenko. At this, you can win the election, and the fate of the sailors in this case are left behind the brackets, ”explains the source RT.

According to experts, over the past 24 hours this is not the only initiative aimed at aggravating relations with Russia. December 6 Poroshenko announced the relocation of units of the Ukrainian troops "to the most dangerous areas" along the Russian-Ukrainian border. On the same day, the Ukrainian parliament decided not to renew the friendship agreement with Russia, which expires on April 1, 2019.

“Extend Special Mode”

Immediately after the adoption of the law on the contiguous maritime zone of Ukraine, the speaker of the Supreme Rada, Andrei Parubiy, met with the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European, Eurasian and Ukrainian Affairs, Laura Cooper. Paruby told her that the new law "strengthens the defense capability" of Ukraine on the border with the Russian Federation.

These words were heard against the background of messages from the American media about the decision of the United States to send a warship to the Black Sea to support Ukraine and show its strength to Russia.

The leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Blokhin, in an interview with RT, noted that the United States’s support for Ukraine’s actions leads to further tension in the region.

“What is happening in Ukraine now is an attempt to escalate the situation simply to the impossible,” he said.

“Poroshenko is doing everything to impose a special regime in the country. It is clear that during the current period of martial law, he will not be able to raise his rating to an acceptable height, ”says Blokhin.

The representative of the "Radical Party" in an interview with RT, in turn, noted that Poroshenko is pressing on Western partners, who are demanding that the sanctions against Russia be strengthened.

“The situation in the Azov and Black Seas has stabilized, and the ships have gone. But now new problems will begin, since the approval of such legislation is fraught with new conflict. Poroshenko thus sends a signal to the United States and the EU with the demand to help - otherwise the war could allegedly start, ”the interlocutor underlines RT.

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According to Manoilo, “the Ukrainian authorities are thinking about a new attempt to break through the Kerch Strait.”

“This time, since there will already be Americans in close proximity, it is quite possible that Ukrainians will organize a second attempt on their own, but under the umbrella of Americans. Either the crew will be mixed, Ukrainian-American, so that it will not be easy to arrest, ”the expert notes.

"Who will give such an order?"

The decision of the Verkhovna Rada has political connotations, said a RT source in the Ukrainian Navy.

“If you follow the letter of the law, the Ukrainian military should use force. And next to the Crimea, which Ukraine considers its own. But who will give such an order? This is a direct clash with the Russian army, which is much better equipped than ours. Therefore, no one will fulfill the requirements of the law, ”he says.

RT source in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also claims that the Ukrainian military will not use weapons. According to him, the country understands that this will lead to an escalation of the conflict and to great losses on the Ukrainian side.

“The deputies sent a signal to the Kremlin that Ukraine intends to use the Black and Azov Seas at its discretion. For the same reason, before the vote, Ukraine conducted tests of anti-ship missiles. But whether it will give the result is unknown. It seems that the Russian leadership does not believe in the readiness of the Ukrainian military to attack Russian ships, ”the defense official said.

Ukraine was unable to create a navy, so the restrictions adopted by the Rada are surprising, says a RT source in the Self-Help party.

“As always, the noise was raised, but there is no point. I really fear that Ukraine might attack Russian ships. The consequences in this case will be the saddest, because our soldiers are not ready for real clashes with the Russian army, ”the deputy concluded.

According to Bondarenko, against the background of conflicting signals from Kiev, Moscow will most likely be engaged in strengthening its maritime borders in the Azov-Black Sea region.

“Russia in this situation can only watch what is happening. We will defend our borders according to our laws, ”the political scientist concluded.