About 800 thousand American civil servants were left without wages this month due to the fact that representatives of the Republican and Democratic parties are unable to agree on the draft budget. Although the congressional refusal to agree on the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico was formally a pretext for the shatdaun, the real reasons for the budget crisis are exclusively in the political field, experts are sure.
Since the 2016 campaign, the democrats have not been able to find a strong figure in their ranks that can challenge the charismatic Trump in the upcoming elections in 2020. Instead, analysts believe, the Democratic Party has directed all forces to "drown" the current head of the White House - for this the Democrats are now tightening the shatdaun.
For his part, Trump clings to populist slogans about building a wall on the southern border. However, unlike opponents, on some issues the American president is ready to make concessions. Speaking on the eve of the White House, Trump announced the consideration by Congress of a new plan to overcome the government crisis as early as next week.
The package of proposals prepared by the White House will be put to the vote of the legislators by the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell.
"Not a compromise, but hostage taking"
To overcome the shatdaun Donald Trump offers a compromise to the opponents of the Democratic Party: the head of state does not give up the requirement to allocate $ 5.7 billion for the construction of barriers on the border with Mexico, but he is ready to make concessions under the DACA program, which provides for protection from deportation for children of illegal migrants, as well as for immigrants who have received temporary protected status in the USA. In the event that the Democrats go to the proposed deal, Trump promises to extend the program for three years.
In addition, the head of the White House agrees to take other measures to protect the children of migrants, including the possibility of applying for asylum in the United States abroad, as well as a program for family reunification.
Speaking of border structures for the construction of which the White House requires to allocate almost $ 6 billion, Trump explained that we are not talking about a concrete structure from the “sea to the sea”, but only about steel barriers in “special priority places”. This year, the head of state promised to limit himself to building only 230 miles (about 370 kilometers) of the wall.
In addition, Trump offered to send $ 805 million for the purchase of equipment to detect drug smuggling at the border, as well as expand the staff of the border guards by 2,750 people, and increase the number of immigration judges by 700 people.
Also attached is an additional allocation of $ 800 million from the budget for urgent humanitarian needs.
However, the results of the vote to be held next week are already predetermined - the Democrats made it clear to the head of the White House that they did not intend to compromise. As the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said, the president has included in his plan earlier rejected proposals, which in the camp of the Democrats are considered "unacceptable". And Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer compared Trump's proposal with "taking hostages."
“It was the president who abolished the protection of migrants under the DACA and TPS programs. To offer some protection back in exchange for a wall is not a compromise, but hostage taking, ”he said.
However, even before Trump announced his initiatives, Assistant Minority Leader in the US Senate Richard Durbin suggested that the Democrats would not approve the president’s proposal. On the availability of a plan to overcome the shatdaunu Trump said more on January 12, commenting on the message of The Washington Post about the "chaos" allegedly reigning in the White House.
" In fact, there is practically no one in the White House except me, but I have a plan for the shatdaun," Trump wrote on Twitter.
According to experts, Trump is aware of the fact that the Democrats are unlikely to go to the proposed conditions.
The promotion of its own crisis resolution plan is an image move, both sides are now engaged in a tense struggle, in which the issues of the wall on the Mexican border or the protection of migrant children from deportation are used only as political trumps.
As political analyst Alexander Asafov said in an interview with RT, all of Trump’s actions should now be viewed as part of the election campaign, which has actually already begun in the United States. More recently, the situation with the children of migrants has been the subject of sharp criticism of the current administration by the unfriendly press. Therefore, now Trump used the occasion to show that he is ready for some concessions on a matter of principle for the Democrats. He himself will never make concessions on the issue of the wall - Trump will actively use this topic for PR purposes right up to the elections, the expert is sure.
- People near the wall on the border of the United States and Mexico
- AFP
- © Guillermo Arias
“This is his election promise, and in many respects precisely because of this, the notorious white silent majority voted for him,” Asafov said. - Building walls on the border looks more like medieval practices, but for the voter this looks like a perfectly logical measure. Therefore, Trump will get a lot of points due to this topic. And he also tries to use shatdaun to improve his image: even the story of how he treated athletes in the White House with fast food tells about it - this is how the president showed that he is close to the people. ”
A similar point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by Yuri Rogulev, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States at Moscow State University.
“Of course, the real reason for the shatdaun is not related to disagreements on budget planning, it's not about money - this is pure politics on both sides. Trump has now offered a compromise to show himself as a negotiable politician and to stand out against the background of the Democrats, ”the expert explained.
"Too easy"
Recall the government crisis began in the United States on December 22, after members of the Democratic Party, which has a majority in the lower house of the US parliament, refused to approve budget items for the construction of the wall on the southern border of the country. The presidential administration earlier requested $ 5.7 billion for these needs, and the head of state refused to sign the budget without including these expenses.
Thus, the country began the longest shtadown in the history of the United States - the suspension of the work of government departments and agencies that received funding from the Congress. At the same time, institutions responsible for ensuring security and related to vital areas - the police, air traffic control services, etc. - continue to operate. Those departments that have their own sources of income, such as the Postal Service, continue to work.
However, since December 22, every fourth federal government agency, including the State Department, the Department of Commerce and a number of other departments, is idle in the United States. 800 thousand employees went to forced vacation. However, ordinary workers will not suffer from this crisis - the lower house of congress has already approved a bill on the payment of compensation for downtime.
The previous major crisis in the work of the government occurred in 2013. Then the cause of disagreement between Republicans and Democrats was the health care reform initiated by Barack Obama, later called Obamacare. The Republican Party considered the costs of the reform unjustified.
The 2013 Shatdown lasted just over two weeks. According to experts, one of the motivations that pushed Republicans toward concessions was the fear of losing popularity before the elections - as polls show, the population most often does not support the excessive principledness of politicians, leading to a budget crisis.
January 12, 2019 in the United States was broken the historic record of the duration of the shutter over the past four decades. The previous record was set at Bill Clinton - then the work of the government was paralyzed from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996.
The protracted government crisis is putting pressure on Donald Trump's rating as well. According to a survey conducted from January 8 to January 11 by The Hill and the research company HarrisX, the support of the head of state declined compared with December by three percent - from 47% to 44%. Only 22% of respondents said that Trump had “decisive support”; the same number of survey participants reported partial approval of the head of state’s actions. 41% of the study participants disapproved of the president’s policy at all, and 15% of citizens didn’t share his point of view.
According to a survey conducted by journalists and researchers from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist and published on January 17, 53% of the country's residents did not approve of the actions of the head of the White House; in December, 49% of respondents held such views.
- Shatdaun protesters
- Reuters
- © Carlo Allegri / File
Dissatisfaction with the actions of the head of the White House is growing among Republicans. Previously, Republican Senator Lindsay Graham publicly turned to Donald Trump with a proposal to start the government’s work for three weeks in order to try to negotiate a compromise with the Democrats during this time. If this does not work, then the president will have the opportunity to impose a state of emergency in the country. However, Trump rejected this idea.
“I rejected it (offer. - RT ), yes. I am not interested. I want to solve everything completely, and not to put it off until later, ”Trump quotes the Washington Examiner edition.
Also, Trump rejected the idea of solving the problem of shatdaun by imposing a state of emergency in the country. The politician said he did not intend to resort to this measure, although he does have such a right, since it would be "too simple."
“Stubborn Idiot”
Meanwhile, the protracted shatdaun can cause damage to the US economy that exceeds the amount of the estimated costs of building the border wall.
Advisor to the President of the United States on economic issues, Kevin Hasset, said earlier that blocking the work of federal agencies would result in a loss of approximately $ 1.2 billion per week for the state if the shatdown is not terminated.
The principled confrontation between the Democrats and the Republicans has already affected the US overseas contacts - on January 18, the White House announced the cancellation of the trip of the American delegation to the World Economic Forum in Davos. As explained by the official representative of the American administration, Sarah Sanders, the decision was made "out of respect for 800 thousand magnificent American workers who do not receive a salary."
In addition, as it became known to The New York Times (NYT), if the budget crisis is not overcome, in two weeks, American courts at the federal level can stop their work. About this journalists told sources in the judicial system.
According to Yuri Rogulyov, if the US government crisis is prolonged, it will be disadvantageous for neither the president nor the democrats.
“But since the initiator of the shatdaun is still Trump, the Democrats are probably counting on a considerable part of the popular discontent to turn against him. The calculation is based on the fact that if the crisis lasts until February, then not only 800,000 state-finishers can suffer, the consequences will be much wider. And if they affect already tens of millions of Americans, then people will not care who is to blame - the president or the democrats - there will be tremendous discontent. And Trump understands this, ”the expert stressed.
But the Democratic Party is exacerbating the situation, taking the ultimatum position.
According to Rogulyov, although this story will hit the Democrats' ratings, their main task now is not to improve their own image, but to discredit Trump in order to prevent him at any cost for a second term.
“The Democrats are firmly committed to either breaking Trump, forcing him to abandon the construction of the wall, or to put him in an awkward position, to expose a stubborn idiot. The fact is that the Democrats simply have no one to stand against him in the elections - they do not have really strong and bright candidates. Democrats also understand this, so they concentrated all their efforts on drowning Trump himself, ”stressed Yuri Rogulev.
- Donald trump
- Reuters
- © Yuri Gripas
But in practice, it may turn out that the head of the White House, and not his opponents, can benefit from this situation. According to Alexander Asafov, despite the recorded fluctuations in electoral moods, Trump has a very good rating for a politician who is so actively attacking. Therefore, the blame for the protracted shatdaun Trump expects to easily pass on to his opponents, accusing the Democrats of intractability.
“It’s unlikely that a shatdaun will really cause serious damage to the American economy, so the parties still have time to play political games. And the budget crisis will end when it begins to threaten the American economy and the state on a large scale. In this case, the shatdaun will be very quickly folded, ”summed up Asafov.