"Explosive situation": what are the prospects for the creation of the army of Kosovo

On December 14, a final vote should be held in the parliament of the unrecognized republic of Kosovo on the issue of creating its own army.

“This is the day when the Kosovo parliament will vote for bills on the transformation of the Kosovo Security Forces into armed forces,” the speaker of the unrecognized republic, Kadri Veseli, wrote on his Facebook page.

However, this Kosovar initiative was negatively received by both Belgrade and Pristina’s western partners. In particular, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned the Kosovo authorities against such a step, saying that this would negatively affect the prospects for the integration of the unrecognized republic into the alliance.

“I drew the attention of Mr. Haradinaj (Prime Minister of Kosovo - RT ) to his plan to transform the security forces of Kosovo into an army. I noted that this action is unsuccessful in time, goes against the recommendations of most NATO countries and will have negative consequences for the prospects for Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic integration. I stressed that if the mandate of the Kosovo security forces changes, then NATO will have to reconsider the level of its interaction with them, ”Stoltenberg said on 6 December in a telephone conversation with the head of the Kosovo government.

If Pristina still decides to create army units, this can sharply stir up tensions in the Balkans. The Serbian side is confident that Albanians are creating an army to expel the Serbian population from the region, experts say.

Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic stated on December 5 that the formation of an army in Kosovo could provoke an armed conflict. Brnabic expressed the hope that Serbia “would never have to use its army,” but called such an option possible. According to the head of the Serbian Cabinet, the Albanian leadership of Kosovo must “think again.”

“We cannot stand by and silently watch how new ethnic cleansing is conducted,” the head of government warned.

"Violent Defender of Albanian Interests"

Plans to build your own army in Pristina have been hatched for a long time. A consistent supporter of this idea is the former field commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), Ramush Haradinai, who last year took over the post of prime minister of the unrecognized republic.

This initiative was already considered in the Kosovo parliament in mid-October. Then in the first reading 101 out of 102 parliamentarians spoke in favor of the draft law on creating a full-fledged army, representatives of the “Serbian List” boycotted the vote.

Belgrade’s concern over the fate of the Serb community living in the northern part of Kosovo is well founded. Pristina not only ignores the obligations undertaken by the European Union to create a community of Serbian municipalities, but also holds force actions.

Recall that the agreement on the creation of Serbian municipalities was reached by the parties in 2013 in the framework of the Agreement on the principles of the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina. However, the Kosovo side postpones the fulfillment of this condition. As Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, noted earlier, this is the “main flaw” in the current situation.

The oppressive impression on the Serbs was made by a succession of power actions carried out recently by the Albanians. In March of this year in the town of Kosovska Mitrovica, located in the northern part of Kosovo, the special forces of the unrecognized republic's Interior Ministry seized the director of the Serbian government office on Kosovo and Metohija Marco Juric, who arrived in the region to participate in a round table on peace settlement. Subsequently, the official was transferred to Belgrade.

Another high-profile event took place in September, when Kosovo Special Forces temporarily took approaches to the accumulation lake and the HPS Ghazivod, which are controlled by Belgrade. In response, Serbia led the troops into full combat readiness, fortunately, then did not reach a direct clash.

Less than a month before these events, the parties negotiated for a possible compromise. In particular, the point was that Belgrade and Pristina could exchange territories inhabited by ethnic Serbs and Albanians. This issue was discussed in August by the presidents of Serbia and the unrecognized Kosovo, Alexander Vucic and Hashim Thaci. Politicians then declared their readiness to change borders for the sake of peace and called on the EU to support this idea.

• Alexander Vucic
• Reuters
• © Djordje Kojadinovic

According to experts, the talk was about the transfer of the Pristina Preschevskoy Valley in Serbia with the Albanian population. In exchange for this, Serbia would transfer the regions of northern Kosovo inhabited by Serbs to Belgrade’s control, Politico reports. This idea was supported in the European Union and criticized in Berlin: in the opinion of the German Foreign Minister Heiko Massa, a similar exchange is capable of opening old wounds in the Balkans.

However, the plan stalled even before the parties had time to discuss the details amid growing tensions in the region. In October, the question of creating their own army was submitted to the Kosovo parliament, to the great outrage of the Serbian side.

On November 20, Interpol again rejected Kosovo’s application to join the organization, which caused an uproar in Pristina. The Kosovo leadership accused Belgrade of failing, although more than 50 countries, including Spain and China, voted against adopting a self-proclaimed republic.

Already on November 21, the authorities of the unrecognized state of Kosovo announced the introduction of customs duties in the amount of 100% on any deliveries from Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. This step of Pristina caused discontent not only in Serbia, but in Brussels. The Kosovo authorities called on the EU Commissioner for Expansion Johannes Hahn, as well as the head of European diplomacy Federica Mogherini and US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to cancel the decision.

However, the Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj said that Pristina will not abandon these measures until Serbia recognizes the independence of Kosovo.

As Pavel Kandel, head of the Center for Ethnopolitical Conflicts at the Institute of Europe, RAS, explained in an interview, one of the reasons why the situation is developing in a confrontational plane was the disagreement between the President of Kosovo, Hashim Tachi, and Prime Minister Ramus Haradin. Although in the past both of them were militant commanders and went to the last election in a single bloc, their political interests seriously diverge.

• Ramush Haradinai
• Reuters
• © Hazir reka

“Now Tachi and Haradinaj are trying to demonstrate to each other their intransigence towards Serbia,” the expert believes. “The idea of ​​border correction was promoted by Thaci, but the rumors about this agreement provoked great indignation both in Serbia and in Kosovo, and the parties had to abandon this idea, everyone was forced to play back. Behind the provocations of the Albanian side, it is Haradinai who wants to establish himself as a fierce advocate for Albanian interests. ”

The authorities of the unrecognized republic also have another motive - inflating the situation, Pristina hopes to "push through" the EU and get the long-awaited visa-free regime, which all countries of the Western Balkans already use, the expert believes.

“But this is unlikely to succeed - very few people in Europe want to open borders for Kosovo Albanians,” added Kandel.

War or peace

The fact that Pristina embarked on an escalation of tensions is a matter of concern for foreign patrons of the unrecognized republic. Speaking on December 5 in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called this decision of Kosovo "untimely." According to him, these actions of the Kosovo side can complicate the EU mediation mission.

Moscow said that such a move by Kosovo would be "a direct and gross violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1244, the only international legal act in the field of Kosovo settlement." According to the document, the presence of an exclusively multinational contingent led by the international community is allowed in the province.

Pristina’s actions at the Foreign Ministry of Russia described it as another “destabilizing and provocative step” following the introduction of the customs blockade. The creation of an army in Kosovo can turn into the gravest consequences for the Balkans, warned the Russian diplomatic department.

“We hope that the international forces for Kosovo will fulfill the mandate entrusted to them and, if such a structure emerges, they will immediately take comprehensive measures to neutralize and disarm it,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

For his part, Hardinay said that the creation of an army would have no effect on the fate of the Kosovo Serbs: allegedly, the troops are needed only to help the allies in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, against the backdrop of critical statements by the NATO leadership on the issue of the Kosovo army, this version looks at least debatable.

In his article, published on November 28 in the American edition of The Washington Post, Hardinay criticized the idea of ​​a territory exchange between Kosovo and Serbia, calling it an “indecent proposal” of Belgrade. Haradinai also accused Serbia of intending to create an “ethnically pure” state and stated that Kosovo would not “give up its sovereignty” and violate its territorial integrity for the sake of recognition from Serbia.

However, one should not trust all the statements of the Kosovo politician, experts say. Pavel Kandel does not exclude that Kosovo will refuse to create an army, since the United States and the EU are now opposing this. Such tensions can cancel the efforts that were previously made to draw Serbia into the orbit of the EU and NATO, the expert said.

“The West has once forced Pristina to submit to the question of Montenegro, so the last word still does not belong to Kosovo. In fact, without the help of Western partners, Albanians will not be able to create armed forces, since this requires funds that Pristina does not have, ”explained Kandel.

According to the expert, without external financial injections, the case will be limited to simply renaming the Kosovo Security Force.

“At the same time, it is also necessary to understand that a significant part of loud statements is made from media considerations, we are not talking about an open military conflict,” stressed Kandel.

However, speaking of the existing preconditions, it is necessary to take into account not only public statements by politicians, but also those moods that now exist in Serbian society, says Professor MGIMO, political scientist Elena Ponomareva.

As the expert explained in an interview with RT, today large groups of the Serbian public are against negotiations with Pristina on the recognition of Kosovo’s independence, regarding such initiatives as a betrayal of national interests. And creating your own army and the emergence of security forces in the northern regions populated by Serbs can put the region on the brink of armed conflict.

“All this creates the prerequisites for the fact that the Serbian side, even at the level of ordinary citizens, can fight back Kosovo - after all, if the Albanians go too far, they may run into voluntary resistance. Therefore, the situation is now truly explosive. An additional risk factor is that the large external players - Russia and the United States are now limited in contacts with each other, ”Elena Ponomareva summed up.