On Sunday, April 21, Ukraine will host the second round of presidential elections. In a fight for the presidency, showman Vladimir Zelensky and current president Petro Poroshenko will meet. The candidate, for whom the majority of voters will vote, will have to take the oath in the Verkhovna Rada no later than June 3, after which he will be able to assume his presidential duties.
On the previous voting on March 31, none of the contenders for the post of head of Ukraine gained more than 50%. The leader then became Vladimir Zelensky. For him voted for 30.24% of voters. Petro Poroshenko, who came second, scored 15.95%.
Election shows
On April 8, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine officially allowed candidates to campaign for the second round. By the time the opposition Poroshenko and Zelensky was already in full swing. Contenders for the main post of the country more than once managed to enter into a correspondence squabble and even publicly pass tests for alcohol and drugs.
Petro Poroshenko, by the way, passed the samples already twice. At the same time he claimed that the World Anti-Doping Agency WADA would investigate them. However, a completely different organization was involved in the study of the presidential biomaterial, albeit with a similar name - VADA (Voluntary Anti-Doping Association).
In addition, Zelensky and Poroshenko distinguished themselves by a confusing history with public debates at the Olympic Stadium. First, the showman called the president to a duel, and he accepted the challenge. And then they began to act as if they were not going to meet. Poroshenko, for example, refused to come at a time designated by the opponent - April 19 at 19:00.
But the guarantor of the Ukrainian constitution appeared at the stadium on April 14, although Zelensky did not give consent to the debate that day. The result was Poroshenko’s triumphal controversy with an empty tribune, which even in The New York Times was called surreal.
As a result, the candidates were scheduled to have two meetings on April 19 - at 19:00 at the Olympic Stadium and at 21:00 at a debate in the National Public Television Studio (NOTU). But how it all ends, no one can predict.
But both opponents succeeded in absentee disputes with each other. At the same time, candidates did not hesitate to make harsh statements. Speaking of Zelensky, Petro Poroshenko hinted at the artist’s connections with the odious oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and noted that the change of president in Ukraine would be beneficial to Russia and personally to its head, Vladimir Putin. Even on pre-election billboards that appeared in Ukrainian cities, instead of Zelensky Poroshenko, the Russian leader “opposed”. And at some point, a video appeared in the Internet in which Vladimir Zelensky was hit by a truck. The headquarters of the candidate accused Poroshenko of the team in black PR.
On April 16, the Poroshenko-controlled Security Service of Ukraine reported on an inspection for financing the Zelensky campaign from Russia and the DPR.
- RIA News
Zelensky, in turn, accused the current leader of corruption, primarily in connection with the Ukroboronprom case. At the same time, on TV channel “1 + 1”, the third season of the Servant of the People series was held, in which Zelensky’s hero - Ukrainian President Vasyl Goloborodko - opposed the Poroshenko-like oligarch Dmitry Surikov. In the meantime, billboards depicting the nape of the president and the words “Konets” appeared in the style of Poroshenko’s election campaign on the streets of Ukrainian cities.
Folk preferences
According to public opinion polls, Vladimir Zelensky has the greatest chances of winning the second round. Thus, according to the study of the sociological group “Rating”, announced on April 11, among those surveyed who intend to vote in the second round and have already made their choice, 71% are going to cast their vote to Vladimir Zelensky and 29% to Petro Poroshenko.
According to a survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, published on April 16, the gap between Zelensky and Poroshenko became even wider. For the comedian, 72.2% are ready to cast their votes on the choice of Ukrainians, 25.4% for the current president. Confidence in the victory of Zelensky was expressed by the leader of Batkivshchyna, Yulia Tymoshenko, and the former president of Georgia and the former governor of the Odessa region, Mikhail Saakashvili.
“It is obvious that Petro Poroshenko has virtually no chance of winning the presidential election. The gap is very large, and it is almost impossible to overcome it in a few days, even if you win the debate. Ukrainians do not vote for Vladimir Zelensky - they have expressed their protest against the work of the current president for the past five years. I think Poroshenko’s team just missed the appearance of Zelensky and allowed him to get such a high rating, ”told RT at the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.
RT source in the presidential administration of Ukraine claims that the current head of state is set to win.
"He constantly says that he will win the election, and so far it looks like a dream, because even the closest associates are confident of Poroshenko's defeat," the source said.
Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries Volodymyr Zharikhin believes that, most likely, Petro Poroshenko will not be able to retain power by legal means.
“But there may be other factors: Poroshenko can arrange massive fraud, or in one way or another disrupt the elections,” Zharikhin warned in a conversation with RT.
Scripts for Poroshenko
At the same time, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of Russia, Bogdan Bezpalko, believes that in the event of a defeat, Petro Poroshenko may try to "negotiate with the people who are behind Zelensky."
- Zelensky and fans
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- © Serg Glovny / ZUMAPRESS.com
“Within the framework of these agreements, he can continue political activities,” the expert notes, stressing that Petro Poroshenko’s Bloc (BPP) now has the largest faction in the Verkhovna Rada.
From it depends on the composition of the government. Six months before the elections, that is, from May 2019, according to the Constitution of Ukraine, the Rada cannot be dissolved, experts say. So, Zelensky, if he wins the presidential election, will have to coexist with the parliament uncontrolled by him.
And after the elections to the Rada, according to a survey of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, BPP can enter the top three parliamentary parties after the political force of Zelensky “Servant of the People” and the Opposition Bloc - For Life.
“Most likely, politicians will be able to agree, and they will leave the appearance of a struggle among themselves to the public,” Bogdan Bezpalko notes.
If Poroshenko fails to find points of contact, then the current president will have only one way out - to flee the country.
“The most radical option, which is now often discussed, is that he will leave Ukraine and give up everything he has gained by“ overworking, ”the political scientist is sure.
In turn, a RT source in the presidential administration of Ukraine states: Poroshenko will make an attempt to get as many seats as possible in parliamentary elections. Interlocutor RT in Blok Poroshenko explains: among other things, it will help the former president to obtain deputy immunity and avoid possible criminal prosecution. In the fight against Zelensky even current opponents, in particular Yulia Tymoshenko, can support him.
“After the victory of Vladimir Zelensky, a huge shaft of criticism will fall upon him not only from Petro Poroshenko, but also from Yulia Tymoshenko and Oleg Lyashko. They will all fight for ratings, and Zelensky will be a good target, especially since without an agreement with the majority he can do nothing, ”the RT source in the Poroshenko administration claims.
Foreign policy
According to experts, in the event of the victory of Vladimir Zelensky in the second round, Ukraine is unlikely to change the pro-Western course taken after the 2014 coup d'état. A humorous candidate is in favor of European integration and membership in NATO, in the latter case, albeit after a nationwide referendum.
“We haven’t yet seen Zelensky as the current politician,” notes Vladimir Zharikhin. “I have to focus only on his statements: he is not going to make any changes in foreign policy, relations with Russia are unlikely to change.”
On April 15, at the headquarters of Vladimir Zelensky, they declared non-recognition of the 2014 referendum in Crimea and the intention to push Russia to “return” the peninsula and even pay some “compensation”. Earlier, representatives of the leader of the Ukrainian election race stated that, having become president, Zelensky would begin direct negotiations with Russia on Donbas, and also connect the UK and the United States to the Norman format. The candidate himself on the air of the Ukraine TV channel suggested “reforming the Minsk format” and conducting negotiations with Moscow “in the presence of Western representatives”.
It was to the Western representatives that Zelensky, like Poroshenko, paid a visit on the eve of the elections. The current president managed to communicate with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron also took Zelensky. But the German leader refused to meet with the main contender for the presidency of Ukraine.
“Zelensky went to the bride, he is actually considered the winner, and of course, European politicians have wondered what he is. And Petro Poroshenko went, apparently, for support, ”Bohdan Bezpalko stresses.
According to the expert, for Europe it is important that Ukraine remains an economic colony of the EU, but at the same time in a geopolitical and military sense, a completely calm territory.
It is not clear what Vladimir Zelensky will do, the source of RT in the Popular Front party said.
“At first he says that he is ready to negotiate with Vladimir Putin and stop the war in the Donbas, but then his rhetoric changes dramatically. In fact, everything now depends on the position of the United States, whose administration can force the new president to pursue an anti-Russian policy and continue rapprochement with the West, ”the source told RT.
"Redistribution of property"
“As for domestic policy, Zelensky, as a completely inexperienced politician, may not cope with the situation, and an increase in instability in the country is likely. A new redistribution of property is possible, says Vladimir Zharikhin. - Behind his back is Kolomoisky, who has something to share and regain from what Poroshenko had taken from him. ”
- Polling station in Ukraine
- Reuters
- © Kacper Pempel / File
If the power somehow miraculously remains in Poroshenko’s hands, then, as the political scientist believes, “prohibitions of the Russian language, unwinding of the confrontation with Russia, attempts to solve the Donbass problem by military means” will continue.
Source RT in the party "Self-help" claims: in the event of his victory Petro Poroshenko will take revenge on opponents.
“Poroshenko never forgives insults, so Igor Kolomoisky will not be good,” the source said. - He can say goodbye to all of his assets in Ukraine, and the proceedings against him in international courts will continue. Poroshenko practically crush political opponents inside the country and take control of the press. Why be shy? For the third term, he will definitely not qualify. ”