Olaf Scholz is optimistic about next year's federal election. The SPD was ahead in the 2021 federal election with 25.7 percent of second votes.

In the most recent surveys, the Social Democrats got 14 to 16 percent in the Sunday question, putting them in third place behind the CDU and AfD. Several state elections this year are likely to test the mood for the federal election, with elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg. The election will take place on September 24, 2025.