China News Service, July 1. According to Taiwan's "United News Network" report, Taiwan's "Foresight" magazine published an article on the 1st saying that Taiwan's economic authorities adjusted electricity prices on the grounds that "international fuel prices have risen and Taipower has suffered losses."
As the "nine-in-one" election is imminent at the end of the year, only 22,000 households using high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage electricity and 360,000 households using more than 1,000 kWh of residential electricity will be "operated".
But this is only a drop in the bucket. According to the calculations of energy experts, even if the price increase increases the revenue by 29 billion (NTD, the same below), Taipower will still lose hundreds of billions of dollars this year, and the cost of power generation in the next few years will increase, at least all It's a "hundred billion" jump.
Therefore, after July 1, Taiwan will usher in the second and third price increases, and the whole people may usher in an era of "non-stop rising electricity bills".
The article pointed out that electricity and electricity prices were originally purely scientific issues, but after the rotation of political parties, Taiwan has long been distorted into ideological issues.
This time the electricity price increase, Taiwan's economic authorities adjusted it on the grounds of "increasing international fuel prices", which is understandable.
But even if fuel prices don't rise, Taiwan is imperative.
The reason is very simple, it is caused by unbalanced and unrealistic new energy policies.
Ye Zong-kuang, a professor at the Department of Engineering and Systems Science at Taiwan's Tsing Hua University, said that what the Taiwan authorities need to review most is the current energy policy.
Taipower's power generation costs have soared this year, mainly due to the excessive proportion of thermal power generation (including coal and gas).
The overall proportion of thermal power generation in Taiwan has increased for two consecutive years, and the proportion of thermal power generation last year was as high as 83.4%.
After the nuclear No. 2 Unit 1 ceased operation in July last year, the proportion of thermal power will definitely increase throughout this year, resulting in the possibility of "no drop at all" in the cost of power generation.
Ye Zongkuang further pointed out that nuclear power generated 27.8 billion kWh of electricity last year, and the cost per kWh was 1.39 yuan, which was much cheaper than thermal power and green power. Looking back at the past, when the six nuclear power units were in normal operation, the annual power supply exceeded 40 billion kWh. The cost is only 1 yuan per degree.
If it weren't for the sharp drop in the proportion of nuclear power caused by the aggressive new energy policy, today's electricity price adjustment would have the opportunity to avoid a "bursting" increase, and it would not affect the operation of enterprises.
The article pointed out that this time, Taiwan's economic authorities have only raised prices by 15% for high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage users, and by 9% for users with residential electricity above 1,000 kWh. Last year, the export value was as high as 446.45 billion US dollars, a record high, with an annual growth rate of 29.4%.
The adjustment of electricity prices will inevitably affect the willingness of industrial development and investment, and even further impact people's livelihood and consumption, and there may be doubts about economic recession.
"If the big manufacturers pay a little more for electricity, it will help Taiwan's energy development, but this is only a drop in the bucket and cannot cure the root cause at all." An industry operator told the truth.
According to data released by Taipower, Ye Zongguang pointed out that last year Taipower generated and purchased a total of 248.8 billion kWh of electricity, the fuel cost per kWh was 12426 yuan, and the fuel cost expenditure was 309.15 billion yuan.
He also predicts that the electricity generation and purchase this year will reach 260 billion kWh, the fuel cost per kWh of electricity will soar to 1.9235 yuan, and the fuel cost expenditure will expand to 500.11 billion yuan. This year may increase the fuel expenditure by 190.96 billion yuan compared with last year. After the electricity price increase on July 1, it can increase the revenue by 29 billion yuan, but it is still difficult to make up the gap. After adding and subtracting, Taipower's debt at the end of this year is at least 161.96 billion yuan.
What's more, Taipower's balance sheet does not include the bad debts of nuclear four, and the initial estimate is at least 320 billion yuan.
The article said that July 1 was only the first time the electricity price was raised, and it will be raised several times in the future, no one knows.
However, it will eventually be passed on to the whole people.
The article pointed out that although the DPP authorities have admitted that the energy policy in 2025 cannot be completed, the goal of "non-nuclear homeland" may be delayed to 2027.
However, the unbalanced energy policy will definitely create a new financial black hole in the next few years, which is estimated to exceed 300 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that the project report of Taiwan's economic authorities admits that the electricity price will rise by 254.4 billion yuan in 2025 based on the assumption that "fuel costs remain unchanged".
But what makes people wonder is, since "the fuel cost remains the same", why should the electricity bill be increased?
Chen Licheng, an energy expert from Taiwan, pointed out that in addition to rising fuel costs, the most important factor affecting electricity costs is the change in the power structure, that is, the proportion of cheap electricity has decreased, while the proportion of expensive electricity has increased.
The two major focuses of the new energy policy of the Cai authorities are "replacing nuclear power with green power" and "replacing coal power with gas power", both of which use expensive power generation methods to replace cheap power generation methods.
In the past, when the six nuclear power units were in normal operation, 40 billion kWh of electricity could be generated every year, and the cost of generating electricity per kWh was only 1 yuan.
Chen Licheng said that the Cai authorities plan to replace nuclear power with the same carbon-free green power. For example, the average cost per kilowatt-hour of offshore wind power and solar power is 5 yuan. Replacing nuclear power with this kind of green power will increase the annual power generation cost by 160 billion yuan.
This astronomical figure has nothing to do with international fuel prices, but a change in the "structure of electricity".
"Replacing cheap coal power with expensive gas power will increase the cost of electricity generation by 90 billion yuan a year, which is the basis for the calculation of 254.4 billion yuan in the project report," Chen Licheng said.
Chen Licheng said that since the Cai authorities have admitted that the current green power progress is lagging behind and cannot complete the "non-nuclear homeland" goal in 2025, the electricity price increase of more than 300 billion will also be delayed until 2027, but this account cannot be escaped. of.
"The Cai authorities have already washed their heads, and the people of Taiwan are waiting to bear the bitter fruit of the electricity price increase of more than 300 billion."
The article said that after the electricity price adjustment in Taiwan on July 1, if the power structure remains unchanged, there will be a second and third price increase in the next few years, otherwise Taipower may declare bankruptcy.