Who will succeed Jean-Claude Gaudin on June 28, after the second round of municipal elections in Marseille? In a ballot which promises to be marked in particular by the health crisis linked to the coronavirus, the match is likely to be close, according to a BVA poll carried out for Europe 1 and La Tribune . "The current state of the overall balance of power shows an advantage to the union lists of the left," said the polling institute.
A scenario made (even more) complex by the coronavirus crisis
In detail, the lists of the Printemps Marseille, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, France Insoumise and Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, supported by Michèle Rubirola, are credited with 35% of the voting intentions, against 30% for the lists Les Républicains and Martine Vassal, and 20% for the RN supported and Stéphane Ravier.
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But the institute is quick to add nuance. "The Covid-19 crisis will take place in the June 28 election, as it did in the March 15 election. First, by impacting the lives of voters and consequently their concerns. by having direct consequences (fear of going to vote) or indirect (disinterest for the municipal elections) on the level of mobilization ", writes BVA in its study. Before continuing: "This situation adds complexity to an already particularly complex local election, due to the game of alliances and dissent sector by sector. In this context, only one certainty: the runner-up of Jean-Claude Gaudin (Martine Vassal) is not sure if it will succeed in conserving the city. "
The institute plans a participation of around 45%, well above the 33% of the first round but far above the second round of 2014 (57%). But he insists: the deal could largely change by June 28. "The fear, still present among some voters, of the virus" coupled with "a demobilization linked to a lack of interest in the municipal election after 8 weeks of confinement and the management of issues related to deconfinement (economic issues, back to school, to work, etc.) "may cause the lines to move.
Which mayor to protect the city against the coronavirus?
A little more than one in two Marseillais (55%) believes that the new coronavirus will have consequences that will permanently change their daily lives, including 23% "certainly" (12 points less than in Toulouse). What influence the ballot?
"On the main subjects of concern related to the crisis, it is Martine Vassal who seems the most legitimate in the eyes of the voters," replies BVA. "She thus appears as the candidate most able to protect the city against the economic crisis and unemployment (37% against 23% for Michèle Rubirola) or against the health crisis (33% against 25%). the left, for its part, appears to be the best able to protect the city from the ecological crisis and climate risk (31% against 29% for Martine Vassal) ", continue the pollsters. Almost 40% of people, however, see no candidate able to better manage the crisis.
Methodology
Study carried out by the BVA Institute on a sample questioned by telephone between June 9 and 15, 2020.
Sample of 1,009 people registered on the electoral lists, from a representative sample of 1,400 inhabitants of Marseille aged 18 and over. The representativeness of the sample was ensured by the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age and profession of the interviewee, after stratification by district.
The voting intentions that appear in this report are based on the people registered on the electoral lists in Marseille, some going to vote and having expressed a voting intention, that is to say 330 individuals. For this workforce, for a percentage obtained by survey of 20%, the margin of error is equal to 4.6. The percentage is therefore 95% likely to be between 15.4% and 24.6%. The results of voting intentions do not constitute an element of forecasting the electoral result. They give a significant indication of the state of the balance of power just over a week before the 2nd ballot.
Each respondent was asked about the actual supply of lists submitted to the prefecture for their district. The results were then grouped together to give overall scores (for the entire city of Marseille)
These voting intentions were carried out globally in the city of Marseille while it was a poll by sector. It is therefore a question here of measuring general trends and not of making precise projections for each sector.