Analysis: The tug-of-war over pensions puts the finger on Lööf's dilemma

The number of pensioners is increasing and thus also an increasingly important group of voters to convince.

This is one of the reasons why pensions have risen as a priority issue for the parties ahead of the autumn elections.

V, S and SD have all charged for an election battle over the pensioners' finances.

And already in mid-June, when the Riksdag is to vote on the spring budget, round one of that battle will be decided.

On the one hand, there are guarantee supplements that the Left Party got through to release Magdalena Andersson (S) as Prime Minister.

This means an average of SEK 750 more in the wallet for one million pensioners who are timely enough to be paid out a couple of weeks before election day.

On the other hand, there are the right-wing opposition's proposals that strengthen the pensioners' finances through an increase in the guarantee pension and housing supplement from October.

The Center Party decides

The decision lies with the Center Party.

Do those who in the autumn and cast their votes in the final vote, the proposal from M, KD, L and SD wins.

In that case, it means that the Center Party would for the second time act so that an SD-negotiated budget proposal goes through the Riksdag.

Not uncomplicated for a party if expensive and sacred promised never to give SD influence.

Especially not if they want to keep the female metropolitan voters who have been appealed to by the party's stubborn SD opposition.

If the Center Party votes instead of the government's proposal, they would support a proposal that the Left Party has passed.

And that would place them more clearly on the red-green side before the election, which is not optimal for a party that goes to the polls for a government solution in the "broad center" where both M and S are intended to be included.

Thus, the pension dispute also puts the finger on the Center Party's dilemma in the government issue.

Hoping for compromise

Now Annie Lööf (C) hopes for the pension group where the bourgeois and Social Democrats sit.

That the government withdraws its guarantee supplement and negotiates a compromise.

To further strengthen the demand, the Center Manager points out that it is the pension group's task to manage the pensions and that an important part of it is to avoid bidding on the pensions in an election campaign.

But it is a big deal that the maneuver succeeds.

A settlement would probably require both a substantial increase in the guarantee pension and a model that ensures the so-called respect distance between those who have worked a full working life and those who have low pensions because they have worked less.

An equation that will be difficult to solve in the short time left until the budget vote.

In addition, one must probably consider the will of M, KD and L to solve the Center Party's hardships as extremely limited.

SD and V must accept

Another factor that speaks against a solution in the pension group is that both SD and V must accept the agreement.

And why would they do that when they are not allowed to sit at the negotiating table?

Especially not as both parties see the already negotiated proposals as great successes.

Most indications are that the Center Party will eventually be forced to profess color.

And no matter how they turn out, the choice entails disadvantages.

It is not easy to stick to the principles when the political game plan changes.