The race towards Carthage

Mohamed Ali Latifi - Tunisia

Competition for the presidential elections in Tunisia will intensify in November, while observers are likely to decide whether to win the next president and get to the Carthage chair.

This comes at a time when most of the leaders of the movement (the parliamentary majority) on more than one occasion that it has not yet determined a candidate for the presidential elections, and that it will support a candidate in accordance with the recommendations of the Shura Council, and believe political observers to be Renaissance - which maintained its internal cohesion unlike the rest Its opponents - the leading political player who controls the balance of electoral competition.

Observers are likely to reverse the popularity of Tunisia's call, which has seen divisions and disagreements that led to the emergence of the party "Long live Tunisia", which will nominate Youssef the witness, the "Tunisia project" which will nominate Mohsen Marzouq, as well as the end of the consensus between the Tunisian Appeal Movement and the Renaissance and the emergence of new opponents and competitors ; All factors will directly affect the course of the presidential race.

Institutions agree
In this context, the MP of the Renaissance movement Sami Al-Fatanasi confirmed to Al-Jazeera Net that his movement will win in the upcoming presidential elections for the candidate whose institutions will be agreed upon. Al-Fantasi said, "Personally I will nominate Al-Baji Kayed Al-Sabsi instead of Al-Moneef Al-Marzouki. "He said.

On the issue of the urgent desire for the rules of Tunisia's appeal to nominate Béji Kayed Sibsi for a second term, which is rejected by a part of the Tunisian street due to the age of Sabassi and his health, political analyst Salah al-Din al-Jourshi said that will inevitably lead to a decline in the votes that will be won by the Sebsi during the next station.

He added that the split of the Tunis Appeal party - which won in 2014 - will negatively affect the results of the vote, where the votes are likely to split between his son Hafez Qaid al-Sibsi and the party of living Tunisia supporter of the witness.

Al-Jourchi predicts that the balance of Carthage's leadership will change based on political tactics, in which strong parties will use their expertise and experience to ally themselves with al-Nahda, especially with the end of their agreement with the Tunis appeal. This means that the candidate of Tunisia's appeal will not win the support of the movement. The founding witness of the party Tahia Tunisia and the current President of the Republic Baji Kayed Sebassi.

According to this ongoing conflict, former president Moncef Marzouki, who withdrew from the second round against his Sebaist rival in the 2014 elections, is also likely to be among the most prominent beneficiaries, especially in light of his positions in support of the Renaissance movement.

The fortunes of the witness
Political maneuvering is part of the presidential election contest, but the discount is usually tied to the interests of each political party and its location in the elections.

In this regard, the political analyst Mohamed Bououd said that the opposition and strong criticism faced by Prime Minister Yusuf witness of all parties, including the Renaissance movement, which asked the witness not to employ state institutions to serve his interests, is just a political tactic.

He added that Rashid Ghannouchi's announcement to back down from the government of the witness and to think about changing the government is just a simple disagreement that does not mean a break between the witness and the renaissance, considering that the bet of renaissance on government stability will not risk her severing her relationship with the witness or refusing to support him in the upcoming presidential elections. Differences over appointments or use of state means, as he put it.

Bouad said that the witness - who seeks to win al-Nahda's debt, which he supports in supporting the Carthage document against all political opponents who demanded his departure - has become reliable in his election battle in the presidential race for his recent war on corruption and on part of the angry public of the son of President Baiji Kayed al- And also those who have withdrawn their confidence from the President of the Republic of Sibsi.

Independents and Opposition
According to figures and the results of the recent municipal elections, the balance of power has changed with the emergence of new parties that have achieved remarkable progress, most notably the democratic trend. In contrast, the results of other parties have maintained their previous legislative and presidential positions, such as the Popular Front.

On the other hand, observers are likely to withdraw the candidate of the Popular Front (a left-wing coalition of nine progressive and nationalist parties), the biggest critic of the government, which accuses Al-Nahda of involvement in the formation of a secret apparatus, in the first round, because of differences between its components on the candidate for the presidency, They did not achieve results in the recent elections.

"The Front hopes to achieve better results than it achieved in the last elections, considering that the Front is counting on its project and its electoral program in the coming stages, and that the people draw lessons from the past," said Jilani Hamami, leader of the Popular Front in his statement to Al Jazeera Net.

For his part, Mohamed Abbou, spokesman for the Democratic Party and his presumed candidate for the presidential elections, ruled out the possibility of rapprochement with Tunisia's appeal or the Ennahda movement, saying that his party is criticizing the Nahdha movement and the current government and is currently seeking to win the votes of the Tunisian voters. In the upcoming elections.

Abo, whose party had previously rejected the alliance with the opposition Popular Front Forces, said the presidential candidate would be announced at the party's scheduled April 21 meeting, saying the Democratic Party would not abandon its positions, which he described as static.

On the other hand, political observers consider that the Free Constitutional Party, led by Abeer Mousi, as one of the remnants of the former regime, which shows the results of the institutions of opinion polls rise in the level of intentions to vote, will not produce surprising results.

On the level of the Tunisian Appeal Party, and on its position on the possibility of re-compatibility with the Ennahda Movement, the MP for the Tunis appeal Ramzi Khamis said in a statement to Al Jazeera Net that "his party ended its relationship with the Renaissance Movement, and does not think about political alliance with it again, considering that the appeal will seek to restore His inner home, and to restore the confidence of his vast constituency, which he voted for in the 2014 elections.

Observers believe that al-Sibsi may resort to an alliance with the constitutional movements to rearrange the house of his internal party, in a manner that may repeat the presidential scenario of 2014, in which he confirmed that the nomination of a large number of contestants will split votes.