"Fireworks" are waiting for them to go northward
Author: Our reporter Yuan Yufei
This year's No. 6 typhoon "Fireworks" was generated on July 18, and it has been 11 days since July 29, bringing a wide range of heavy rainfall to eastern regions such as Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Anhui.
At present, the second landing of "fireworks" has brought heavy rainfall to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Northeast China.
What are the characteristics of the rain brought by the "fireworks" this time?
How long will it last?
The reporter interviewed Zhang Tao, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, Lei Lei, chief forecaster of the Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Yi Xiaoyuan, chief forecaster of the Tianjin Meteorological Observatory, Yu Wentao, director of the Tianjin Meteorological Observatory, and Xie Jun, chief of the Climate Prediction Section of the Tianjin Climate Center. .
"Fireworks" affect North China, and there have been many heavy rains in Beijing since July
In the next few days, what are the main rainfall periods and affected areas brought by "fireworks"?
In this regard, experts analyzed and pointed out that the Central Meteorological Observatory's forecast showed that after the typhoon "Fireworks" weakened into a tropical depression, it will continue to move northward, affecting North China and other places, and it is expected to bring a significant rainfall process to the Haihe River Basin.
Among them, the Tuhai Majia River, Heilonggang Yundong Water System, the middle and lower reaches of the Daqing River, the main stream of the Haihe River, the lower Beisan River, the lower Luanhe River, and the lower Zhangwei River have accumulated precipitation of 70-120 mm, and locally 150-200 mm. The site will exceed 250 mm.
The outer cloud system of the tropical low pressure "fireworks" has begun to affect Beijing.
From July 29 to July 30 in Beijing, there were heavy rain to heavy rain during the day, with more rainfall in the east and less in the west.
According to Lei Lei, due to the influence of the outer cloud system of the tropical low pressure "fireworks", there have been rains in Beijing since the morning of July 29. The largest rainfall occurred at the Chaoyang Sihui Bridge, reaching 32.2 mm.
At present, Beijing is in the blue warning of thunder and lightning, blue warning of heavy rain, and yellow warning of geological disasters and meteorological risks.
Lei Lei said that according to the Central Meteorological Observatory's forecast, the "fireworks" will move north to east at a speed of about 20 kilometers per hour, and will move into the Bohai Sea on the morning of July 30, gradually degenerating into an extratropical cyclone.
"Beijing has experienced heavy rainfall since July, and the soil has a large water content. The risks of secondary disasters such as mountain torrents, landslides, avalanches, and mudslides in mountainous and shallow mountainous areas are relatively high. Please raise the public’s awareness of preventing heavy rains and secondary disasters and do not go there. Activities in dangerous areas, river courses, and hidden danger areas of geological disasters." Lei Lei said.
Meteorological experts reminded that the tropical depression after the "fireworks" weakened will continue to affect the northern regions. Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and other places have heavy rainfall, and some areas have accumulated heavy rainfall.
The public needs to guard against the adverse effects of floods in small and medium-sized rivers, mountain floods, geological disasters, urban and rural waterlogging, and farmland waterlogging that may be caused by heavy rainfall.
In addition, the autumn harvest crops in Northeast China have entered a critical period of water demand. This precipitation process will help alleviate the drought in some areas such as central and eastern Heilongjiang, central Jilin, and central and northern Liaoning, and benefit the growth and development of autumn crops; Low-lying fields cause short-term waterlogging.
Severe flood conditions may occur in parts of the Haihe River Basin
Since the flood season, how has the precipitation in the Haihe River Basin been?
Is there a risk of flooding?
According to Yi Xiaoyuan, since June 1st, the average rainfall in the Haihe River Basin is 337.2 mm, which is nearly 70% more than the normal period (194.7 mm), ranking second in the same period since 1951 (347 mm in 1977).
Each river system was 20% to 2.5 times more than normal, of which the Zhangwei River had 715.9 mm of precipitation, 2.5 times more than normal, and the Luan River was 402.9 mm, 80% more than normal, both of which were the highest in history.
Experts said that the mountains and plains of the Haihe River Basin almost directly intersect, and the river source is short and rapid. Once a regional rainstorm occurs, floods are easily formed.
Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention of flood disasters that may be caused by heavy rainfall in the river basin, and be highly vigilant against the possibility of severe flooding in the Haihe River Basin.
In particular, strong convective weather such as strong local rainfall, thunderstorms and strong winds will affect people’s lives and property safety, urban operations, agricultural production, and major project construction. We will prevent tides in coastal cities, silt dam defenses, flood control in flood storage and detention areas, and cities. Water drainage and other work.
In addition, the mountain area in the Haihe River Basin accounts for 60%, and the disaster points of mountain torrents are wide and sudden.
In addition, affected by climate change, extreme rainstorms occur frequently in hilly areas, and the defense situation of secondary geological disasters such as mountain torrents and mudslides is complex and severe. In particular, it is necessary to prevent casualties and property losses caused by them.
Yu Wentao suggested further strengthening monitoring, forecasting and early warning, decisively carrying out the transfer of threatened personnel, strengthening publicity and training exercises, issuing transfer clear cards, and effectively improving the public's awareness of disaster prevention and avoidance and self-prevention and mutual rescue capabilities.
According to Xie Jun, in order to further enhance the Haihe River Basin's meteorological service guarantee capabilities, Tianjin Meteorological Bureau will further strengthen departmental linkage with the Haihe Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, upgrade and improve the video consultation system and the comprehensive sharing platform of river basin weather forecasts, and strengthen surface rainfall and satellites. Cloud images, radar-based data, soil water content, commonly used numerical forecasts and other meteorological data, as well as hydrological data such as water regime information of reservoirs, river courses, and weir gate stations are shared. At the same time, the radar quantitative precipitation estimation, 1 to 10 days intelligent grid forecast products, etc. are connected with the flood forecasting system of the Sea Commission to further extend the flood forecast forecast period and improve the pertinence of forecast services.