Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, December 10th (Fu Yumei) One stone stirred up waves.
As "North and South Volkswagen" fell into rumors of production suspension, topics such as "chip shortages affecting China's auto production" and "my country's auto chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 10%" have been pushed to the focus of public opinion.
What is the status quo of the automobile lack of "core" test is coming?
Will discontinuation become the norm?
When does the "stuck neck" phase stop?
Yuan Chengyin, general manager of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center and secretary-general of the China Automotive Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance, said in an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client that to improve the situation of China’s independent automotive chip "stuck neck", it is urgent to build autonomous vehicles The chip innovation ecology promotes the self-reliance of domestic chips.
What is the status quo of the lack of "core"?
Recently, news reported that SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen both entered a state of suspension in December due to insufficient chip supply.
In response to this, Volkswagen China responded to the media saying that although chip supply has been affected, the situation is not as serious as the rumors and is currently seeking solutions.
A related person from SAIC Volkswagen told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client: “Due to the shortage of global chip supply, the production of individual models of SAIC Volkswagen has been affected to a certain extent. At present, Volkswagen and Volkswagen China are coordinating with relevant suppliers and actively adopting As a response, customer delivery of related vehicles has not been affected."
However, the above-mentioned people also indicated that the insufficient supply capacity of automotive chips is a current global industry problem, which has had a certain impact on global automotive manufacturers.
What is the car chip that caused the focus of public opinion?
"Automotive chips are the core hardware for new energy vehicles to achieve intelligence and electrification." Yuan Chengyin revealed that the field of automotive chips covers a large area, including perception, control, computing, communication, storage and other categories, "even more complex than cars. a lot of."
"Compared with traditional chips used in mobile phones and other electronic devices, the requirements for automotive chips are more complex and strict. It takes at least 2-3 years for a chip to complete vehicle certification." Yuan Chengyin cited as an example, the requirements for ordinary industrial chips The temperature is between -20 degrees below zero and 40 degrees above zero, and automotive chips must meet the requirements of minus 40 degrees to above 125 degrees above zero.
In addition, automotive chips are related to vehicle operation issues, and must have features such as high safety, high reliability, and high adaptability, and even require zero defects, control costs, and maintain high cost performance.
"High-threshold" automotive chips are not directly available for use in vehicles, but first connect with layered component suppliers and then provide them to vehicle companies.
The most important part of the current shortage of automotive chips is the functional chip MCU (Micro Control Unit), which makes it impossible to produce the two modules of ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) and ECU (Electronic Control Unit).
In the domestic market, especially in joint venture car companies, Bosch and China are the main Tier 1 suppliers.
Information from the mainland shows that its current inventory of ESP is about 10,000 sets, which is far from market demand.
The relevant person in charge of Bosch China responded to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that there is indeed a shortage of chips in the industry. Bosch is also maintaining close communication with suppliers and customers to actively ensure supply.
According to data released by the market research organization Strategy Analytics, in 2019, the number of global in-vehicle MCU installations exceeded 2.5 billion.
In the domestic automotive chip market, foreign manufacturers dominate, and China's automotive chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 10%.
Yuan Chengyin said that according to the latest situation they learned, the overall self-sufficiency rate is now less than 5%.
"The gap of MCU must be solved. Because this is the real brain of the whole vehicle, it is related to the research and development and manufacturing of high-performance smart cars." Yuan Chengyin emphasized.
Will the lack of "core" stop production become the norm?
Although the rumors of "North and South" Volkswagen’s suspension of production have not been verified, it has also raised public questions: If the wave of chip supply continues to occur, will the suspension of model production become the norm?
On the 8th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as China Automobile Association) responded to the chip shortage and its impact on the auto industry through its official media.
Li Shaohua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association and Minister of Industry Development, said that it is certain that the problem of chip supply shortage is real, but it is not as serious as some media reports.
The superimposed influence of multiple factors has caused the contradiction between chip supply and demand to be concentrated in this time period.
"With the continuous improvement of the electrification, intelligence, and connectivity of automobiles, the value of automotive chips continues to increase, and the global demand for automotive chips will increase faster than vehicle sales. This will directly cause the supply and demand of chips. Imbalance.” Li Shaohua said that the imbalance between supply and demand of automotive chips is not the latest contradiction, nor is it only reflected in the Chinese automotive industry. This is a common issue facing the global automotive industry and related industries.
Yuan Chengyin believes that if the shortage of chip supply continues, not only the "North and South" Volkswagen will face the pressure to stop production, but the entire car circle will be affected.
"This year's situation is too special. First, the second spread of the epidemic has caused some factories in Southeast Asia and Europe to shut down. Second, the demand for chips in various fields has increased rapidly this year, resulting in the occupation of some car chip production capacity. But this is not It will be a long-term state, and the suspension of production should be just an accident."
The executive dean and professor of the Institute of Digital Economy of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Pan He and Lin Xiangzhongxin Jingwei Client analyzed that the current shortage of automotive chips reflects the problems of the global supply chain.
The decline in chip export capacity in some countries due to the epidemic has caused a short-term shortage of chips for some companies that rely on foreign companies.
In an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, Fang Yinliang, Roland Berger's global senior partner and vice president of Greater China, also believes that the outbreak of the lack of cores in automobiles is related to the market conditions during the epidemic.
"After the epidemic has stabilized, everyone will pay attention to boosting demand. In fact, after the demand rebounds, the supply chain cannot respond in time."
Fang Yinliang said that in terms of the entire industrial chain such as chip design and manufacturing, each link has corresponding technology, which requires the cooperation of suppliers in the chain.
In the epidemic, the cooperation of suppliers has been blocked, and the investment field has become relatively conservative, making the short-term conflict of chip shortages prominent.
On the corporate side, several car companies such as BYD, Xiaopeng and Ideal all responded to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client saying that their current production has not been affected by the shortage of chips.
BYD said that the current shortage of semiconductor-related products mentioned in some public reports does exist in the automotive industry, but BYD has a complete industrial chain in new energy batteries, chips, etc., which can not only be fully self-sufficient, but also have a margin for external supply. .
The ideal aspect said: "We have planned the purchase of chips in advance, and production has not been affected."
The Passenger Car Market Information Council recently wrote an article that although there is currently information about shortages on the supply side, it has been common for car memory or chips to be out of stock for many years. Based on the experience of the computer industry, this will not be right for the time being. The production and sales of automobiles have too much impact.
Li Shaohua analyzed that due to the shortage of chip supply, the production of some companies may be greatly affected in the first quarter of next year.
However, for the whole year of next year, the impact of the chip shortage will not be too great, and it is still difficult to make a quantitative estimate.
It is worth noting that, in addition to the shortage of chip supply, many automotive chip suppliers worldwide have issued price increases notices.
Following Renesas Electronics, leading automotive chip manufacturer NXP also stated that due to the impact of the epidemic, NXP faced the dual impact of severe product shortages and increased raw material costs, and decided to increase product prices across the board.
Will this cause an increase in vehicle prices?
Fang Yinliang believes that the supply of spare parts is only part of the car's pricing system and will not become a decisive factor in car prices. What is more important is the recognition and competitiveness of its products in the market.
Say goodbye to the previous situation where enterprises "do it alone"
"The automotive chip market is gestating huge market opportunities and potential space. It is also a competitive arena for the electrification, intelligence, and networking of automobiles in the future. Chinese companies are bound to seize the opportunity." Yuan Chengyin predicted.
The data shows that China's independent automotive chip industry only accounts for 4.5% of the global scale.
The scale of China's auto industry accounts for more than 30% of the global market.
There is a huge gap between the proportion of automotive chips and the proportion of the automotive industry.
Yuan Chengyin revealed that automotive chips include several core links, including chip design systems, evaluation standards, quality systems and certifications, and automotive manufacturing processes.
"In fact, in addition to the design aspect, other links are currently basically dominated by foreign companies. Especially in terms of car regulation and technology, we are in a state of close to a blank state. Therefore, we must realize that China's independent car chips are still being stuck. 'Neck' stage."
The State Council issued "Several Policies to Promote the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and Software Industry in the New Era", which mentioned that China's chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 70% by 2025.
In Yuan Chengyin's view, the most important thing at present is to build a complete innovation ecology and cooperation chain, and bid farewell to the previous situation of enterprises "working alone".
Promote the coordinated development of upstream and downstream industries through refinement and cooperation in various fields along the chain.
In the work of China's auto chip industry innovation strategic alliance, Yuan Chengyin felt that Chinese auto chip companies are also eagerly seeking ways to cooperate.
Over 150 companies have joined the alliance three months after its establishment.
"We have to work hard in all aspects of the automotive chip supply chain. Only in this way can we truly break through the bottleneck systematically and structurally. Under demand, risks and challenges coexist." Fang Yinliang said.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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