American cinemas may remain closed until mid-2021, according to the Hollywood Reporter, who reports analyst Doug Creutz. "Social distancing" would make it virtually impossible to operate in blockbuster rooms. As a result, most majors would prefer to delay the release of their blockbusters by a few months or even years.
Cowen analyst says: the wave of postponements that hit the industry at the start of the summer was just the beginning. In the United States, the situation does not seem to be improving. On the contrary, the crisis seems to have settled well and could last until mid-2021. According to the analyst, no one had imagined until now that the crisis would last as long. The prolongation of social distancing measures and the closure of certain cinemas in the United States would have drastically reduced the sector's profits.
The analyst sees only a slight recovery in early 2021, with the release in theaters of a few films. The biggest productions should wait until summer to make their return to theaters.
Cascading reports
If this were confirmed, it would mean that several major productions could be postponed for a few months, like Mulan or Wonder Woman 1984, which were both expected in theaters at the end of the summer.
“We all thought that the Covid-19 epidemic would end with social distancing measures. We now believe that this will not be the case before mid-2021. And we don't rule out the possibility that the impact will be felt even longer… ”, explains the analyst to The Hollywood Reporter . A situation that could tilt in favor of streaming platforms, like Netflix, which gained more than 10 million subscribers in the last quarter.
In Europe, the fear of a second wave has forced many countries to impose the wearing of masks in buildings, with dramatic effects on the turnover of cinema operators. The Federation of cinemas in Belgium has launched an appeal to the federal government by revealing that cinema attendance has dropped by 25% since the imposition of the mask in cinemas. Some operators could be forced to close shop if the measures are not relaxed.
In the longer term, European cinematographic complexes could also choose to extend their closings while awaiting the supply of new films. Local productions will indeed remain the only alternative for European exhibitors pending a recovery across the Atlantic.
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