Rome (AFP)
The prospect of early elections in the autumn is moving away in Italy after the formation, by a Tuesday vote, of a majority between the 5 Stars Movement (anti-system) and the Democratic Party (center-left) but the strength of the team is not guaranteed.
Question: What happened in the Senate on Tuesday?
Senators of the PD and those of the M5S, furious against Matteo Salvini who broke without warning their alliance on August 8, voted as one man against the proposal of the leader of the League (far right) to overthrow this week the government of Giuseppe Conte by a motion of censure. They agreed to ask the head of the executive, close to the M5S, to only come "speak" August 20 in the Senate, and try to resolve the political crisis.
This combination of circumstances was marked by the great return of the former Prime Minister (February 2014 / December 2016) Matteo Renzi, still the heavyweight of the PD. For him, "Captain Fracasse Salvini missed his appointment" by breaking the 14-month coalition with the M5S to get early elections in October-November.
The one his fans call "The Captain" has counterattacked, proposing to the M5S, which is one of the battle horses, to come to terms with the time to vote next week a very sharp reduction in the number of parliamentarians ( to 600 elected against 945, a European record) then to return just after the ballot box.
Matteo Salvini announced on Wednesday that he will try again to overthrow the Conte government next Tuesday. "On August 20 we will vote mistrust against the Prime Minister" because "the democratic and transparent way" is "that of elections".
Question: Why is an advance poll taking place in the fall?
Salvini's surprise proposal to vote for the parliamentary weight loss that converges with that of Renzi is likely to approve the text on Thursday or Friday next reading in the Chamber of Deputies. For the M5S, the wages saved must go to "more useful things", "schools, roads and hospitals".
And Mr. Renzi has now promised, his party, the PD, will bring his voice to the project.
But this reform will still have to be validated by a constitutional referendum, which requires three months of organization and three others for the conduct of the polls, then it will be necessary to redraw the constituencies, pointed out the specialists.
This would delay by six months at least one vote. Meanwhile, the current M5S-League government would be paralyzed, and unable to agree on the 2020 budget, crucial for the eurozone's third-largest economy, heavily indebted, is on the brink of recession.
For Mr Renzi, before any vote, it is necessary not only to approve the parliamentary reduction but also a finance law to recover 23 billion euros that are missing from the public accounts, and avoid a scheduled automatic increase in VAT in January.
To do this, Mr Renzi proposed the formation of a transitional government, which could see the PD join the M5S, while recognizing that "it costs him on the human level", because before and after the fall of his government in December 2016, he suffered waves of "insults" from them.
Question: how lucky is a new majority to emerge and what do the Italians want?
On paper, a majority M5S-PD is possible but the Five Stars are divided into two camps, the left wing close to the president of the Lower House Roberto Fico who would be favorable and the right wing of Mr. Di Maio more reluctant.
According to media reports, Fico is working on the hypothesis of a "legislature" government that could be led by a respected M5S figure such as former anti-corruption magistrate Raffaelle Cantone.
For Stefano Folli, editorialist of the newspaper Repubblica, "a government restricted to the PD and M5S that would be born with the ambition to last a legislature until 2022 is the most realistic hypothesis", "provided that it finds a basis for coherent program ".
Di Maio leans rather for a broad reshuffle to the profits of the Five Stars, and the advent of a government Conte bis, without vote of censure.
According to recent polls, if Salvini's League (credited with 36 to 38%) entered into a pact with its old allies of Forza Italia (center-right) and Frères d'Italie (far right), the group would win more 50% of the votes.
But in the Italian system, "governments are born, die and are reborn in parliament," says former Prime Minister Enrico Letta, referring to a "very creative Italian policy."
© 2019 AFP