In Nigeria, the presidential election began one week late. 84 million men and women are registered to appoint a new president out of 73 candidates. Muhammadu Buhari, the incumbent, and challenger Atiku Abubakar have the biggest chance.

Why is the choice crucial?

Already 200 million people are estimated to live in Nigeria, one in five Africans. The UN predicts a doubling of the Nigerian population by 2050, because life expectancy is steadily rising and child mortality is falling.

And many people in the country have to express themselves in adverse circumstances. Half of the residents today have less than two dollars a day available. Many who can afford it flee from the mol hole of the 16-million-megacity Lagos, from the ethnic and economic violence in the center of the country or the Islamist terror of Boko Haram in the destitute north.

IRC / AP

Smoking debris in a refugee camp in northern Nigeria

In Germany, the fourth most asylum seekers came from Nigeria in 2018.

But it is not just the question of how many Nigerians seek their luck elsewhere that is crucial. The whole region of West Africa depends on Nigeria. To put it bluntly: If the huge economy runs cold, West Africa gets the flu. And since Muhammadu Buhari ruled, it seemed that Nigeria was getting worse and worse.

The incumbent

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Muhammadu Buhari (left)

Although Buhari, 76, wants a second term, he has not had much success so far. It started four years ago with the promise to defeat the Boko Haram terrorist group and combat chronic corruption in Nigeria's government apparatus.

He missed the first goal. The terrorists continue to dominate all over the country and start again and again deadly attacks against the security forces. Buhari initially cracked down on corruption. In the meantime, however, even his own party accuses him of making a very differentiated choice of friend and foe in corruption cases.

The Muslim Buhari was a military dictator in Nigeria in 1983, today he is a weak president. In a memorable BBC interview a year after Buhari's election, even his wife, Aischa, said that if it continued with governance until the next election, she would no longer support her reelection.

Her main criticism: Buhari was then isolated in his government team. In the interview, the First Lady complained that neither her husband nor she knew the key figures of the government team properly. Decisions would be made on pressure from people who did not act in the spirit of the APC party.

The challenger

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Atiku Abubakar (left)

Atiku Abubakar, 72, is the top candidate of the neoliberal People Democratic Party, which has its supporters, especially in southern Nigeria. Abubakar was vice president of his country from 1999 to 2007. From this time come serious corruption allegations.

Because of these allegations, he is actually subject to an entry ban for the United States. The brief was lifted in January so that the possible next head of state in Washington could audition. For the short-term visa Abubakar should have paid a lobbying firm $ 80,000, which then enforced the exception at the US Congress. Abubakar denies the corruption allegations. His most important election promise is the privatization of the oil sector, and that would be a drastic step for Nigeria - especially in Abubakar's prehistory.

How will it end?

Actually, it was supposed to be voted last Saturday, but hours before the polls opened, everything was postponed by a week.

Recent polls before the election saw some benefits for Buhari. On the other hand: Both candidates come from the Muslim north and wrestle for the votes there. In southern Nigeria, Abubakar's PDP could get more votes, as in previous elections, and it could be enough for the challenger.

AFP

Buhari (l.) And Abubakar (archive image from 2014)

What applies to the whole country: People are disappointed by the political class and the two big parties. It can be dangerous if Buhari just wins, and then the PDP doubt and contest the result. Or the other way around.

Another alarm sign: The country's chief judge, Walter Onnoghen, was arrested in early January. He had not given his assets correctly and hidden millions abroad, which was banned under Buhari. It would be onnoghen, as chairman of the Supreme Court, to decide on the legality of the election in a contest.

The spontaneous postponement of the election has not relaxed the situation, on the contrary: Many people are furious because they had driven to vote back to their home region and then could not vote. And Buhari has once again increased the stakes with brutal rhetoric: anyone who tries to falsify the result will "pay with his life".