Intelligence report: What is behind the alleged Russian plans for nuclear weapons in space?

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Rocket launch at the Russian Baikonur cosmodrome

Photo: Roscosmos Press Office / ITAR-TASS / IMAGO

The excitement began with a vague statement. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner said on Wednesday that his committee had provided "information about a serious threat to national security."

Shortly afterwards, the American media unanimously reported that the information from the secret services concerned new Russian nuclear capabilities. Several MPs reassured that it was not an acute crisis. Nevertheless, speculation quickly arose: Is Russia working on a nuclear space weapon?

Experts agree that a nuclear explosion in space would have catastrophic consequences. It would destroy satellites in its immediate vicinity and create large amounts of space debris. This scrap would also endanger other satellites. In addition, the detonation would produce an electromagnetic pulse, i.e. high-energy radiation. It could disable all satellites in a larger area - both foreign and our own.

Satellites are a lucrative target

States have long sought control of space because of the promise of geopolitical power. More than 9,000 satellites orbit the earth, transmitting telephone conversations, sending navigation signals and weather data. They are a worthwhile target for the military. Experts therefore warn against the military build-up of space.

American concerns about Russian nuclear weapons in space are also not new. As early as 1963, during the Cold War, the American foreign intelligence service CIA prepared a report on possible Soviet orbital nuclear weapons. It said there was no indication that the Soviet Union was planning to use nuclear-armed satellites “in the near future.” However, the country was already technically capable of doing this at the time – and “at a relatively low cost”.

During the Cold War, both the United States and the then Soviet Union sent intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads into the upper atmosphere for test purposes and detonated them there. Out of fear of ever-increasing radioactivity in the environment, Great Britain, the USA and the Soviet Union signed the so-called Partial Test Ban Treaty in the summer of 1963, which banned nuclear weapons tests in space, among other places.

The Outer Space Treaty from 1967 is also intended to prevent the use of nuclear weapons in space. It prohibits “putting an object into Earth orbit that carries nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction.” So far, Russia has not withdrawn from these contracts.

Hardly any technical hurdles

Technically speaking, it would be easy to detonate a nuclear bomb in space. “Virtually any rocket could deliver a small nuclear warhead into orbit,” says Carl Schuster, former chief of planning at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. He believes it is possible that a nuclear weapon from space could be deliberately lowered into the stratosphere and exploded there. The electromagnetic pulse could then paralyze the power and mobile phone networks.

Russia rejected reports of new nuclear capabilities in space on Thursday. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said they were an attempt by the US government to get Congress to approve more money for Ukraine and to fight Russia. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov became even clearer and spoke of a “malicious forgery.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was surprised by the discussion during a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels. This news was new for him, he said. He wanted to discuss this with his partners, but warned against hasty conclusions. "We have to clarify the technical questions and then see what follows from that," said Pistorius at the event.

Focused microwave beams

According to experts, a nuclear bomb is not necessary to shoot down an enemy satellite. Not only Russia, but also the USA, India and China have been experimenting with conventional bullets for decades. In 2007, for example, China dismantled a former weather satellite into thousands of pieces. The remains of the device still fly around the world today.

Military systems are also being developed that are intended to disrupt satellites or their communications with focused laser or microwave beams. There is little public information about how exactly this technology works. The long-distance radiation is probably aimed at the electronics of satellites, so that they continue to orbit but are no longer functional.

China has put a lot of effort into these so-called soft-kill options, says US expert Schuster. This means there will be no debris. In addition, an attack would only be recognized with a time delay. “That could enable Beijing to plausibly deny such an attack,” said Schuster.

Nuclear reactor on board

According to US media reports, the intelligence documents mentioned do not explicitly speak of a nuclear weapon, but rather of a “nuclear anti-satellite system”. It is possible that the statement does not refer to the type of weapon, but rather to the drive. This is pointed out by Juliana Süß, a space security analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Russia has been working on nuclear satellite propulsion for decades,” says Süß.

The expert refers to Russian documents according to which Russia is developing a nuclear-powered satellite with a military purpose. The mini nuclear power plant on board is intended to provide the necessary propulsion energy. The electronics of other satellites will then be disrupted using high-energy radiation.

Juliana Süß does not believe that Russia will actually launch a nuclear weapon into space in the near future. “Russia has less to lose than the USA because it operates fewer of its own satellites in orbit,” she says. In the end, the country would also do massive damage to itself. In the event of a nuclear detonation in space, “there would only be losers,” says Süß.