Who doesn't have good resolutions at the beginning of the year? Many people are currently trying to optimize their eating, drinking and fitness habits. Next Tuesday, the European Union wants to reposition itself on the topic of climate neutrality and present a climate target for 2040.
So far, a first intermediate step on the path to climate neutrality has been set: by 2030, i.e. within six years, the EU's CO2 emissions should fall by 55 percent compared to 1990, according to the target. The “Fit for 55” legislative package is intended to ensure this under the umbrella of the Green Deal.
The 27 member states should save greenhouse gases in the energy, transport, industry and agriculture sectors. The Union wants to be climate neutral by 2050 at the latest, meaning that it will no longer release any climate-damaging emissions into the atmosphere.
The interim target for 2040 is a further step towards this. According to a draft from the European Commission, which is available to SPIEGEL, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU should be reduced by 90 to 95 percent compared to 1990 by then. There are also two other options in the paper such as an 80 percent target and 85 to 90 percent target. However, “Option 3”, a reduction of 90 percent, is preferred.
It is said that this is the only way to fulfill the obligations of the Paris Climate Agreement. The ambitious “Option 3” also corresponds to the recommendations of the EU Climate Advisory Board (European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change) and is also considered sensible by experts and scientists.
Intentions are good, implementation would be better
These are good intentions, but what is more important is the implementation. Just a few weeks ago, the Climate Advisory Council warned that the EU must do more. The measures taken so far have not been enough. CO2 emissions must be reduced more consistently, particularly in the areas of transport, buildings, agriculture and forestry. There are too few financial incentives for farmers to use climate-friendly farming methods.
A fact that, by the way, plays almost no role at all in the current farmers' protest discussion. While all other sectors are already being held accountable, farmers and livestock farmers have so far had to do very little or nothing at all.
The European Court of Auditors fears that the EU will not be able to achieve its climate goals set for 2030. What is particularly worrying is that there is no sign of sufficient funding to achieve the goals, a June report said. This applies particularly to the private sector.
Less than ten percent of the estimated total investments actually necessary are planned in the EU budget from 2021 to 2027 in order to achieve the climate goals for 2030. The investments would therefore have to come largely from national and private funds. But there is a problem there.
The best example of the finding is the budget crisis in Germany, probably the richest country in the Union. Here too, the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) has just been cut.
The CO₂ has to go – but where?
The EU Commission and the Climate Advisory Council at least agree that a whole range of measures are necessary, including the expansion of EU emissions trading. In order to become climate neutral, the Brussels authority is also calculating with immature savings methods, such as underground CO2 storage. Up to 450 million tonnes of CO₂ could be captured and stored annually by 2050, according to a Commission draft law announced this week. By 2030 there should be 50 million tonnes of CO2.
As a reminder: So far there are only four operating plants for storing CO₂ in the EU and three in Norway. The quantities stored there are negligible. 17 additional plants are currently being planned in the EU member states, some supported by the Commission. The CO₂ is to be stored in underground storage facilities in the North Sea and the Mediterranean, among other places.
Only around a year ago, Danish Crown Prince Frederik inaugurated the “Greensand” project in the port city of Esbjerg. The stored CO₂ is transported via pipeline to the Nini West platform and pressed into an old oil deposit.
Now this so-called CCS technology (Carbon Capture and Storage) is expected to become more important - also because 16 years is extremely short to reach the new 90 percent target (even at 80 percent you would have to hurry). That's why the EU Parliament, Council and Commission will be negotiating the Net Zero Industry Act next week, which is intended to advance the CCS industry in the EU.
The technology urgently needs a boost if Brussels is really serious about storing 50 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030. For comparison: the Danish project launched a year ago only stores eight million tons per year in the best case scenario.
Climate protection not at any price?
The technology remains controversial among environmentalists and scientists. Liquefying CO₂, then transporting it via pipeline or ship and pressing it is extremely energy-intensive. They also fear dangers from leaking deposits - which many geologists vehemently deny.
One thing is clear: CCS can only make a tiny contribution to saving the Union's currently around 3.6 billion tons of CO₂ emissions. Nevertheless, experts consider the contribution to be useful in sectors in which climate protection is particularly difficult from a technical point of view.
“The EU goal of climate neutrality by 2050 can only be achieved if several hundred million tons of CO₂ are captured industrially by the middle of the century and then either stored or reused,” says Oliver Geden from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP).
The EU Commission not only expects the capture of CO₂ from factories, such as cement plants, but also with CO2 capture from the air and so-called biomass power plants (DACCS and BECCS). However, these savings techniques are still in their early stages. They are also energy-intensive or take up a lot of space.
This week, a study in the journal “Science” warns against overestimating the potential of such “climate plantations.” This means the targeted cultivation of plants that grow quickly and bind a lot of CO₂. The idea behind BECCS is to then burn them and store the CO₂ released underground. However, this could push other planetary boundaries even further, such as the loss of biodiversity and also endanger food security, the authors warn.
In order to achieve the global savings from climate plantations estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an area three times the size of the USA would be required. “It is obvious that this cannot be achieved under any circumstances,” explains Felix Creutzig from the Berlin climate research institute MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change), a co-author of the study.
“The paper justifiably points out that climate protection scenarios should always contain information on the land area required for biomass, regardless of whether it is for forest areas or energy crops,” says Oliver Geden, who was not involved in the study. Governments would have to make transparent what contribution different methods of CO2 removal should make to achieving net zero targets. “It is currently not possible to realistically estimate what relative shares BECCS, DACCS and other CDR methods could achieve by 2050.”
When the EU Commission announces its new 2040 target next week, it won't just be about a number. But rather the question of how the Union wants to do climate protection, what is realistic in the next 16 years and what will be supported. It is the beginning of a gigantic restructuring. The next few years will determine whether the plan will be successful – but also whether this transformation is socially and ecologically compatible.
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Stay confident
Yours, Susanne Götze,
science editor