Zoom Image

Last generation: Climate activists of the environmental movement have been blocking traffic in Munich for weeks

Photo: Lennart Preiss / picture alliance / dpa

On Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will open the IAA Mobility car and traffic fair in Munich – and climate activists have already announced that they want to disrupt the processes: Numerous organizations are planning demonstrations, blockades and "actions of civil disobedience". For example, activists from "Extinction Rebellion" want to abseil from a bridge near BMW World on Monday. In view of the climate crisis, the auto show in Munich is "sheer mockery," according to the climate activists. After "another extreme year with fires, droughts and floods worldwide," the IAA is no longer acceptable.

All peaceful demonstrators are welcome in Munich, said Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU), but at the same time announced: "We will not tolerate any crimes!" Anyone who coerces people in traffic, damages other people's property or obstructs rescue workers must "expect consistent intervention by the police".

More and more climate activists in preventive detention

According to the organization, the number of members of the Last Generation held in prison as a precautionary measure has now almost doubled to 27 members. Most of them will probably not be released before the end of the IAA. In some cases, "long-term custody" has already been confirmed by the courts.

If the Last Generation continues its actions, the police will have no choice but to exhaust "all available legal means," warned Thomas Hampel, president of the Munich police headquarters.

A total of 38 associations and organisations have called for a large-scale demonstration #blockIAA on Sunday, 10 September. At the same time, as was the case two years ago, a bicycle demo is to take place.

In 2021, around 20,000 people took part in the bicycle rally, and another 5000,<> anti-IAA demonstrators took part on foot. At the joint final rally on the Theresienwiese, climate activists had tried to break through a barrier, police officers used batons and pepper spray.

The future of an electric car?

The first shows of the IAA took place even before the official opening: BMW, for example, presented the "Neue Klasse" on Saturday, an electric car that is to be launched on the market in 2025. CEO Oliver Zipse said at the presentation: "The assumption that combustion engines are always more profitable than electric cars is completely wrong." BMW is already making money with every electric car, and the "New Class" will be "very profitable". In an interview the day before, he had sharply criticized the EU's farewell to new gasoline and diesel cars by 2035. By 2035, there will be no nationwide infrastructure for electric cars in Europe.

In fact, enthusiasm for e-cars has lost significant momentum, especially in Germany, which is probably due in part to lower government subsidies, but also to long delivery times and high inflation. According to industry experts, the market share of electric cars in new registrations in Germany is likely to decline sharply in the coming year. The management consultancy Deloitte expects e-car sales in Germany to slump by a third in 2024. Instead of the targeted 15 million electric cars, only 2030.11 million will probably be on the road in Germany by 7.

At Volkswagen, whose boss had announced that the brand would be converted into a pure electric brand in Europe by 2033, the major IAA innovations also come primarily from the combustion engine world. A new generation of the Passat and a Tiguan will be shown. The VW boss does not see this as a contradiction to his electric offensive: "We have always said that efficient combustion engines will continue to play an important role in the transformation."

The climate activists of Fridays for Future, on the other hand, accuse car manufacturers of "whitewashing their vest with an apparently ecological and sustainable image".

Competition from China

There is also a rumble in the internal relationship between car manufacturers and suppliers: the manufacturers are making high profits, while their mostly medium-sized parts suppliers are keeping their heads above water with financial aid. This makes the headwind in China, the most important car market, all the more inconvenient. There, the business is currently shifting with power in the direction of electric drives. This will also be visible at the IAA. Industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from the market researcher Center Automotive Research already senses "the IAA of the Chinese" and a "turning point that will make Europe an interesting market for Chinese electric cars".

The trade fair is the start of the battle for market share in Europe. The Chinese market leader BYD will manufacture and sell around 2.5 million vehicles worldwide this year – that is the level of BMW and Mercedes. Because BYD only builds electric cars, the manufacturer benefits from economies of scale such as electric top dog Tesla, according to Dudenhöffer.

In order to get promising electric models on the road faster, VW is now developing joint models based on Chinese technology together with the local e-car manufacturer Xpeng. The Ingolstadt-based subsidiary Audi also wants to deepen its ties with partners in China because things are not running smoothly.

Mercedes had to lower its prices for the electric flagship EQS late last year – the share price collapsed sharply. Even if things are going even better in the premium segment than in the mass business, this shows that even the German luxury brands are no longer invulnerable in China.

vet/dpa