It is called the "Shadow Fleet" or the "Ghost Fleet".

Behind this very promising term in the media, there is a phenomenon capable of undermining the architecture of the international sanctions against Russian maritime oil exports which entered into force on Monday 5 December.

"Russia has quietly built up a fleet of around 100 aging tankers to deal with sanctions on its oil," the Financial Times said on Friday 2 December.

The Wall Street Journal added the following day that for some months there had been a race among certain small shipping companies - particularly in Asia - for second-hand tankers, especially those capable of navigating "frozen waters such as 'they are found around Russian ports that overlook the Baltic Sea'.

"Ghost" supertankers

The aim would be to set up a parallel sector – the “shadow fleet” – to the traditional network of tankers in order to continue to export Russian oil as if international sanctions did not exist.

These establish, from Monday, a ceiling of 60 dollars per barrel of oil above which Russia cannot export its precious hydrocarbon in the world (in addition to a total embargo on exports by sea from oil to Europe).

To ensure compliance with this rule, the United States and its allies prohibit marine insurance companies from insuring a cargo ship carrying black gold destined to be sold for more than the maximum price.

The overwhelming majority of tankers should resolve to do so since insurance is the key to doing business with the oil majors, having accounts in the major international banks and benefiting from most of the services offered by the maritime groups of the major Western countries, recalls the Wall Street Journal.

Except the tankers of the "shadow fleet".

"These are old ships that should theoretically soon be dismantled but are bought back to go back to sea without having taken out insurance with companies dependent on a G7 state, in order to be able to continue to trade with countries hit by international sanctions. “, explains Lawrence Haar, specialist in energy economics at the University of Brighton.

These ships are not content to ignore an insurance policy recognized by the G7 States.

"They can also turn off their transponder [which transmits their position in real time, editor's note] so as not to be spotted at sea", specifies Lawrence Haar.

Hence the name "phantom fleet" used by some media.

The price of old tankers explodes

This phenomenon does not date from the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia.

It also concerns Iranian oil, especially since former US President Donald Trump put the sanctions against the Iranian energy sector back on the agenda in 2018. "This is also the case for Venezuelan oil. “, adds Lawrence Haar.

It is difficult to estimate the extent of the phenomenon, but the American maritime business consulting firm Capital Link judged, in November 2022, that for the category of supertankers alone (a little less than 900 in operation), there were around 7. % who were part of this "shadow fleet".

This phenomenon has only increased since 2019. "Major commercial transport ship companies estimate that the number of 'shadow' supertankers has increased threefold over this period", underlines the Financial Times.

And it would have flown away since the start of the war in Ukraine.

End-of-life tankers can sell for up to twice as much as a year ago.

"This summer, a Greek shipowner was able to sell a 22-year-old icebreaker tanker for $32 million, while a similar ship sold for just $17 million last year," the Wall Street Journal said.

Inflation that denotes the importance of demand.

This would be proof that this "shadow fleet" is "becoming the main tool the Kremlin is acquiring to hope to circumvent international sanctions on oil exports", estimates Francesco Sassi, specialist in geopolitics of the at the RIE research institute in Bologna, dedicated to the energy industry.

It's hard to say if that's enough.

Admittedly, between the hundreds of oil tankers that Moscow has acquired in recent months and the small companies ready to offer Russia the same services that they already provide to Iran or Venezuela, this "shadow fleet" may seem imposing.

However, "this cannot be enough to allow Russia to export as much oil as before the war", assures Francesco Sassi.

However, Moscow may not even need it immediately.

"The cap set at $60 shouldn't hurt Russia's export revenue, given that the price is close to the discount price that Moscow is already charging to sell its oil to India or China," he said. Lawrence Harr.

A "shadow fleet" as an insurance policy

This maximum price set by the United States in agreement with the main European countries had provoked the ire of certain nations, such as Poland and the Baltic States, which were campaigning for a much lower ceiling.

For these countries, it was the only way to really hit Moscow in the wallet.

But Washington had assured that this sanction was only a starting point.

It would be quite possible to tighten this screw if necessary.

Hence the interest, in Moscow's eyes, of this "shadow fleet", an asset that "Russia is keeping in reserve in case Western countries decide to further lower the ceiling price", explains Lawrence Haar .

If these "ghost tankers" were to haunt the seas, it would not be good news for maritime trade, underlines Francesco Sassi.

"The safety of navigation at sea could worsen since these ships are all at the end of their life," he concludes.

With an increased risk of oil spills?

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