These are the great reunions in flesh and blood.
Representatives of the OPEC + countries - the 23 main oil producers - meet in "face-to-face", Wednesday, October 5, in Vienna, for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
The 13 member countries of OPEC - led by Saudi Arabia - and their 10 oil-producing allies, starting with Russia, want to give this great rally as solemn a stamp as possible to "underline the importance of decision that will be taken there," notes the Financial Times.
Save petro-profits
The overwhelming majority of observers expect the announcement of a significant drop in oil production quotas in order to boost crude prices.
A drop that could range from 500,000 to 1.2 million barrels less per day.
"At their last meeting in early September, the OPEC countries had already sent a signal by lowering production by 100,000 barrels per day," said Olivier Appert, expert in energy issues at the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri ).
It was only a drop of oil less in the ocean of the 100 million barrels produced per day, but the goal was probably to prepare the minds.
OPEC+'s stated desire to drive up prices has already started to take effect.
The only rumors around the probable announcement of a drop in production led to a rise in the price of crude oil by 4% in two days.
Seen from Europe, this decision may seem paradoxical or at least against the tide: while energy prices continue to soar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Russia or Venezuela s worried about their petro-profits?
In reality, they have what.
"Oil prices have fallen to levels below those before the outbreak of war in Ukraine," said Olivier Appert.
This tumble is partly due to Beijing's stubbornness to apply its "zero-Covid policy".
It has led to a sharp drop in economic activity and has therefore made China less energy intensive.
In addition, the general decline in demand for oil due to an increasingly sluggish world economy is also contributing to the fall in prices.
Oil prices didn't even skyrocket after the sanctions on Russia.
First, because Russian exports have also "been less affected for the moment than expected, since other countries, such as India, have taken over from Europe", notes Olivier Appert.
This means that the supply of oil has not fallen and that black gold has not become rarer.
In addition, in the context of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russia's new customers are in a strong position to obtain rebates on the price of oil.
And there is no clearing on the horizon that could reassure oil-producing countries and their allies that the trend will reverse.
They therefore decided to take matters into their own hands by betting on a massive drop in production quotas to put an end to the downward spiral.
A policy that plays into the hands of Riyadh… and Moscow
But it's a risky bet, both from a geopolitical and an economic point of view.
And especially for the leader of this oil cartel: Saudi Arabia.
Indeed, Riyadh has for decades projected the image of an unwavering ally of the United States.
However, its desire to strongly support oil prices in the current context goes against Washington's strategic interests.
So much so that "it could create a [diplomatic] breaking point with the United States," said the Financial Times.
First, a rise in oil prices weakens American efforts to suffocate Russia economically.
The sale of black gold was the main source of export revenue for Moscow, far ahead of gas ($123 billion for oil in 2019, compared to $23 billion for gas).
Any rise in the price of this hydrocarbon will therefore have a disproportionate impact for Russia, even if it should sell it off.
Saudi Arabia therefore risks appearing as Russia's objective ally in the face of economic sanctions.
A fall in production can, as such, help Moscow to continue to finance its war in Ukraine.
Above all, it would not be the first time that Saudi Arabia has been caught red-handed making diplomatic infidelities in Washington for the benefit of Moscow, recalls the New York Times, in an investigation into new Russian-Saudi ties.
As Russian tanks prepared to cross the Ukrainian border in mid-February, Saudi Arabia wrapped up a series of juicy investments - more than $600 million - in Russia's three main energy giants (Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil).
Within Opec, Riyadh has also been campaigning for several months to offer a more important role to Moscow.
Much more concrete gestures than the highly publicized "check" between US President Joe Biden and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in July.
Apart from these photos, the tenant of the White House "had not obtained much from this trip to Saudi Arabia in terms of commitment to oil production", recalls Olivier Appert.
At the risk of angering Washington?
As if that weren't enough, the likely decision by OPEC+ to cut crude production comes at the worst economic time for the United States.
Rising oil prices are likely to fuel inflation, as they are expected to drive up prices at the pump.
This is clearly not news that is likely to please Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve, engaged in a fierce struggle to try to stem inflation that has reached levels not seen in nearly 40 years.
This OPEC+ meeting could therefore expose the diplomatic divide that is being created between the two historic allies.
And it is no coincidence that Saudi Arabia is now taking the risk of appearing as the big bad guy of the moment for Washington and its allies by chance.
"There was an agreement in force since 1945 between the United States and Saudi Arabia which stipulated that the first ensured the protection of the second in return for a supply of energy. But this situation has changed, in particular with the eruption of shale gas and oil in the United States", notes Olivier Appert.
From now on, the United States has become the world's leading oil producer and therefore has less need of its Gulf partner.
“Already in 2010, Barack Obama pointed out that the change in the oil context allowed him greater diplomatic latitude with regard to Saudi Arabia,” explains the Ifri expert.
Riyadh has understood this well and, in a sense, the ease with which the country is about to make a decision that will promote its profits and Washington's number one enemy at the moment illustrates this awareness.
Riyadh seems to have understood this well, as illustrated by the ease with which the country is preparing to make a decision that will favor its profits and those of Washington's number one enemy.
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