“This process can no longer be stopped”: a Russian scientist on the melting of glaciers and the rise in the level of the World Ocean

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- The Barents Sea is almost completely ice-free, even in winter, so high waves often occur on it.

Its southwestern part does not freeze due to the warm current passing through the area.

In turn, storms lead to the destruction of the coast and floods in the coastal zone.

This phenomenon is also observed in other seas in the northwest of the Russian Federation.

In particular, in Karsky, where in summer the area of ​​ice cover is reduced several times and storm waves are formed.

The shores of the Kara Sea consist of frozen rocks, which thaw due to global warming, and waves destroy them.

The scale of destruction depends on the size of the water area: the larger the body of water, the higher the waves can be.

For Russia, this is a very big problem.

When the shores of the Barents and Kara Seas recede and collapse, weather stations have to be moved, ports have to be moved, etc.

• The coast of the Barents Sea near the village of Lodeynoye in the Murmansk region

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• © Pavel Lvov

In some areas, the problem can be solved by building special structures made of concrete or stone, which change the direction of the waves.

However, if the entire natural coast collapses, melts, then this process cannot be stopped.

In addition, warmer waters coming from the Atlantic spread in the Barents Sea at a depth of more than 100 m and, due to global warming, mix more intensively with the overlying cold layers, increasing their temperature. 

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— The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which includes thousands of the best scientists from around the world, publishes reports every seven to eight years on the state of the climate system.

In 2022, they published a document stating that the global air temperature, when compared with the second half of the 19th century, rose by about 1.1 ° C, which is associated precisely with human activities.

Changes caused solely by natural processes - volcanic and solar activity, the tilt of the earth's axis - are only hundredths of a degree per century.

If we consider the statistics for the last 50-60 years, we will see that the temperature has risen regardless of natural processes: the average temperature on the planet is still growing faster than it would have happened without human intervention.

This means that the main role here is still played by the anthropogenic factor.

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- Many countries tried to switch to renewable energy sources until 2022, but current geopolitical events have largely slowed down this process.

Now states have begun to return to the use of coal, one of the dirtiest energy carriers.

When it is burned, black carbon is emitted, polluting the atmosphere.

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• © Arctic-Images

However, even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease, the climate system will still change, this process is irreversible.

The ocean accumulates huge reserves of thermal energy.

As water gets warmer, it takes up more volume due to the effect of thermal expansion.

Therefore, the level of the World Ocean will still rise for at least another 200-300 years, since heating will slowly spread to its deep layers.

“It was

- The processes of melting glaciers in Antarctica or in the central part of Greenland take place at depths in the layer up to several kilometers.

There, glaciers are more like a layer of liquid water, so it is not known for certain what the scale and speed of their melting are.

Glaciers in Greenland, for example, are melting quickly, but in Antarctica the trends are different.

If we consider the Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica, we can see that ice is growing there.

This is due to the fact that the rate and volume of precipitation exceed the rate of melting.

However, in comparison, the glaciers in Greenland are melting faster than in Antarctica.

Accordingly, the rise in the level of the World Ocean due to the increase in the volume of melted water is largely determined by the melting of island ice.

How does

— The ocean has currents at all depths to the very bottom.

The places where deep waters are formed (homogeneous waters extending to depths of 3-4 km. -

) and from where they spread to other areas are local, very small in area.

One of these places is just near Greenland.

If, for example, desalinated water enters this area as a result of the melting of a glacier, then the mixing stops and deep waters do not form.

A similar situation may be near Antarctica.

Deep waters are important in that if they formed on the surface, sank to the bottom and leave with a deep current, then surface warm water comes in their place.

This process is like a continuous conveyor belt.

If deep water does not form near Greenland, for example, and is not carried away from north to south, then warm water that replaces it does not come from the south either.

The advantage of the European climate is that warm water comes with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current, which carry it north to the Norwegian Sea, and then with the North Cape Current to the shores of Russia, into the Barents Sea.

Cyclones form over such currents, which carry heat with westerly winds.

Therefore, winters in Europe are relatively warm.

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• ©NASA/Keystone Press Agency

If the glaciers melt intensively, then the water will become fresher, deep waters will not form and warm currents will not go north.

Accordingly, the climate in Europe will change, cyclones will acquire other trajectories.

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- The level of the World Ocean over the 20th century increased by 18-20 cm. It is predicted that in 80 years this figure will reach 80 cm or a meter.

For some places, such an increase is insignificant, but for others it is dangerous.

Rather, it should be noted here the negative consequences not only from the rise in the level of the World Ocean, but also from the increase in the frequency of dangerous phenomena, in particular typhoons, storm waves and surges in the coastal zone.

Measures to prevent negative consequences and destruction have been taken for quite a long time.

For example, in the 1950s, dikes were built at the mouth of the Thames and in Holland to prevent floods.

In the St. Petersburg area, a gate was installed that closes during storms, since this city in Russia is most prone to floods.

New York, Miami, New Orleans are under threat in the USA.

In China, Hong Kong.

The entire territory of Bangladesh is also in danger, since the mouth of the Ganges River is very low-lying places and they can be covered with a large surge from the Indian Ocean.

There are still small islands in the Pacific where people still live, and if the islands are flooded, then the inhabitants are supposed to be relocated, for example, to New Zealand.

However, engineering facilities that can deal with this problem are very expensive.

Not all countries can afford this, so it will not be possible to protect cities from the onset of water everywhere.  

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• © AscentXmedia

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- The maximum of the last glaciation was 18 thousand years ago.

Since then, after the melting of glaciers, the level of the World Ocean has risen quite quickly by 130 m.

Now the changes are not so significant, and they occur more smoothly.

We expect that global temperature will rise by a maximum of 1.5 °C in 20-30 years, and the level of the World Ocean by another 20 cm.

Of course, due to climatic changes, for example, in the Mediterranean, Central Asia, the southern regions of Russia, there will most likely be a drought, and in the northern regions the climate will become more temperate and suitable for agriculture.

There will also be migrations of peoples from one region to another.

But humanity will still eventually adapt to new conditions, as it happened before.