[Correspondence] Super typhoon, how often will it become more frequent in the future?

Readers, have you seen the sky recently?

After the typhoon passed, the sky was very clear and clear.

I hope that all your worries and worries will disappear like the clear sky.

If you look at the news, many people involved in the typhoon are working to repair the damage so that the flood victims who have suffered from the typhoon can spend even a little more comfortable holiday holidays.

We will also send a message of support to the flood victims so that they can return to their normal lives as quickly as possible.

Today's Mabu News summarized how powerful Super Typhoon Hinnamno was and how much damage it caused.

And we went one step further and looked at how many more super typhoons like this could come to Korea in the future.

This is the question Mabu News asks its readers today.

Super Typhoon Hinnamno that swept the Korean Peninsula

First, let's take a look at the amount of rain that Hin Nam-no sown in Korea.

1,059.0 mm of precipitation was recorded in Witse Oreum in Jeju, 447.5 mm in Gyeongju and 385.5 mm in Ulsan.

In Seogwipo, Jeju, the highest wave of 21m was observed since observation began in 2015.

Due to the strong wind, a boat moored in an empty lot in Seogwipo, Jeju, flew into the middle of a nearby road.

Pohang suffered the most.

The amount of rain that this typhoon threw in Pohang was a whopping 418.2 mm.

In 2021 alone, the precipitation in Pohang was 1,405.7 mm, so this time Hinnamno rained almost 30% of the annual precipitation at once.

As a result, seven rivers overflowed.

POSCO's operation was 'all-stopped' due to flooding and power outages.

This is the first time since 1973 when the Pohang Works pulled out molten iron.

In Indeok-dong, Pohang, there was also news of a fatal accident in an underground parking lot.

A total of 12,159 flooded houses and shopping malls nationwide (as of 22:00 on the 7th).

The size of farmland that suffered damage was also counted as 7,141.1 ha.

It is not yet the sum of the damage in all regions, but there is a possibility that it will increase in the future.

As POSCO stopped operating, there are reports that the amount of property damage accumulated so far has increased like a snowstorm, exceeding 1 trillion won.

Not only property damage, but also casualties are considerable.

Of the 15 casualties that were tentatively counted, 11 of them died.

The Korea Meteorological Administration is planning to submit an opinion to the Typhoon Committee to expel the name of Namno Hin, the first time in 19 years since Typhoon Maemi.

When Hinnamno landed in Geoje, the central pressure was 955.9㍱.

In terms of intensity, it is the third highest record in history after Sarah and Cicada.

For reference, Sara recorded a central pressure of 951.5 ㍱ and Maemi recorded a central pressure of 954.0 ㍱.

It landed in Geoje at 4:50 a.m. on the 6th, and exited the sea off Ulsan at 7:10 a.m.

Experts believe that the damage did not spread to the worst since the high pressure in the north pushed Hinnamno faster than expected, and the time spent in Korea was short.

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Just as Hinnamno caused damage this time, typhoons cause particularly great damage among natural disasters.

If you look at historical natural disaster data, you can estimate the magnitude of the typhoon damage.

The graph above is a graph of the amount of damage from natural disasters drawn using disaster annual data.

I visualized the amount of damage by year from 1916 to 2020.

Data from 1945 to 1957 do not exist and are therefore empty.

If we convert the amount of damage based on monetary value in 2020, 2002 was the year that recorded the most damage.

Can you see the overwhelmingly rising bar of 2002?

The amount of damage was 8,106.2 billion, 419,267 won.

Since the budget for diplomacy and unification is 6.4 trillion won in the 2023 government budget in Korea, you will get a sense of how much damage it is.

The typhoon accounted for 84.8% of the damage over 8 trillion won.

Those are the traces of Typhoon Rusa, which hit Korea in August 2002.

It was the same in 2003, second place.

Typhoon Maemi, which landed in September, left over 5 trillion in damage.

Q. But why do typhoons only come to Asia?

If you read articles about typhoons in the summer and fall, you must have thought of that.

Why do typhoons only come to Asia and not to other countries?

In fact, typhoons are also occurring around other continents.

Only the name is different.

Typhoons, hurricanes, cyclones, etc...

They are all members of the same tropical cyclone family.

A tropical cyclone is a tornado phenomenon created by the air above the warm sea, and has different names depending on the region where it occurs.

Tropical cyclones that form in the North Atlantic or Northeast Pacific are called hurricanes.

What happens in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon.

Because Korea is damaged by a tropical cyclone that occurred in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, it comes with a name tag of 'typhoon'.

Those that form in the Indian Ocean, Southern Hemisphere and Mediterranean Sea are called cyclones.

It used to be called a willy-willy going to Northeast Australia, but it was abolished in 2006 and merged into Cyclone.

The seeds of the typhoon are rising more and more

Unlike other typhoons, this Hinnamno is probably a super typhoon that occurred quite north.

To analyze a little more in detail, Mabu News analyzed the international typhoon data once.

The data used are IBTrACS data created by the National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

By analyzing this data, you can check the routes and information of typhoons from 1884 to 2022.

In the map below, only super typhoons were selected from the IBTrACS data and the starting point of the typhoon was marked.

Before I look at the map, I'm going to clean up the super typhoon first.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the United States classifies typhoons according to wind strength. A typhoon with a maximum wind speed of 130 knots or more per minute is called a super typhoon.

The dots on the map below are all super typhoons that recorded maximum wind speeds of over 130 knots.

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If you look at the map, you can see that the dots are clustered on the eastern coast of the Philippines.

It's kind of like the cradle of a typhoon.

The point to focus on is the point located above the 25th parallel (25°N) north latitude marked by the dotted line.

There are only two super typhoons recorded above 25°N.

They are Hinnamno, who came this time, and Typhoon Noru, which caused damage to Japan in 2017.

Typhoons usually originate from the warm Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines, starting at 26.1°N for Roe deer and 25.8°N for Hinnamno.

And the two typhoons showed a very different movement path from the typhoon we knew before.

If you calculate the latitude of the starting point of the super typhoon by year, it is noticeable that it is gradually rising.

You will notice at a glance that the trend line in the graph below is gradually rising.

The average latitude of super typhoons in the 1950s was 9.36°N.

On the other hand, in the 2010s, it increased to 10.40°N.

The IPCC report also warns that the path of tropical cyclones is likely to move further north in the future.

But what's wrong with going up north, so why are you even warning me?

From now on, let's talk about that.

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Once the typhoon's starting point is higher, it may be more likely to reach peak intensity at higher latitudes.

In the past, there was a possibility that the power would decrease in the process of starting from below and coming up to the land.

This creates the possibility that countries located at high latitudes will be harmed.

In particular, Korea, China, and Japan will be hit by more powerful typhoons than in the past.

So, what causes the latitude of super typhoons to rise?

The reason is that the sea water is getting hotter.

Typhoons are born in warm seas.

Although the overall temperature of seawater has risen due to the effects of global warming, it has risen a lot, especially in the seas around Southeast Asia and East Asia.

Typhoons began to occur in this area as the relatively original birthplace of the Pacific Ocean became less hot and the seawater in Southeast Asia and East Asia became hotter.

Korea is in danger

If the area where super typhoons are occurring is getting higher now than in the past, what will happen in the future?

I brought you one of the future climate studies.

This is a paper published in Science Advances in April 2022. Here, we compared past data from 1980 to 2017 and future data from 2015 to 2050 to predict how many more typhoons will occur and where they will pass than in the past.

For future data, the climate was predicted using the standard greenhouse gas scenario (SSP) presented in the IPCC 6th Climate Change Assessment Report.

As a result of the analysis, it was found that if we do not reduce greenhouse gases in the future, more powerful typhoons will occur than in the past.

On the other hand, weak typhoons have decreased.

The problem is that when we analyzed the countries that are more exposed to this increased powerful typhoon, Korea is included in the top ranking.

In Korea, the frequency of typhoon exposure is predicted to increase by 935% compared to the past, which ranks fourth in the world after Australia, Yemen, and Papua New Guinea.

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The figure calculated above is a relative calculation of how many more people will be exposed to strong typhoons in the future compared to the past (1980~2017).

So it will be easier to understand if you look at the absolute growing population figures together.

If you calculate the number of people who will be more affected by typhoons in the future than in the past, it comes out to about 59.4 million people.

It has been analyzed that the three countries in East Asia, Korea, China and Japan, will expose 442.4 million people to typhoons in the future.

There are voices of scientists warning of the worst-case scenario in which typhoons and heat waves come together due to climate change.

I'm thinking of a scenario where a typhoon destroys the power grid, causing a large-scale blackout, and then a heat wave hits it, adding to the damage.

But scientists say that we do not know in the future.

The probability that a heat wave will last for more than five days in a row after a typhoon is only 2.7% in the past climate environment.

An extreme scenario in which a heatwave lasts for more than 12 days is almost impossible.

But what about future climates where carbon emissions continue?

The percentage soars to 20.2% and 7.5%, respectively.

Experts are raising their voices that it is necessary to preemptively prepare for complex risks that have not been experienced in the past.

Q. But the number of typhoons (tropical cyclones) has decreased?

If we analyze all the tropical cyclones that occur worldwide, the frequency of occurrence in 1900~2000 decreased by 13% compared to 1850~1900!

A little surprising, isn't it?

The cause of this change is that atmospheric circulation is slowing down.

Due to climate change, the Hadley Circulation, which rises at the equator and descends at mid-latitudes (around 30°), and the Walker Circulation, an east-west atmospheric circulation along the equator, are weakening.

The relatively stagnant atmosphere has made it more difficult for tropical cyclones to occur.

The decrease in the number of typhoons is not all that good news.

The frequency of occurrence is decreasing, but the intensity is increasing.

And as mentioned above, the location of the typhoon is moving up to an area where more people live, so the damage is likely to increase.

???: "How much more do I have to prove?"

The fight to contain the 1.5 degree rise is over.

The battle for human existence has begun on this planet.

Scientists and strikes.

Readers, have you ever seen a sentence in which two words exist together?

In April, scientists focused on climate research stopped their research and held a large-scale protest.

The reason for the protest is that I wonder how much more proof it will take for climate policy to change.

Among the scientists who participated in the protest were scientists who participated in the UN IPCC, and some climate scientists from NASA.

In fact, no proposition is 100% true for scientists.

Always keep in mind the possibility that it can be turned over.

Scientists publish the data used in their research because they believe that science must be reproducible by anyone, and that the propositions they have proven can be overturned at any time.

As a result, there is no way to definitively determine a certain situation.

It is unusual for such scientists to go on strike for action for the climate crisis.

Can we be 100% sure that a climate crisis is coming?

Of course not.

Maybe not.

Some point out that the actions of these scientists are only a bleak prospect approaching eschatologically on the other hand.

As they say, the climate may not change significantly in the future.

But can we just trust in the uncertainty and let go?

Since typhoon forecasts are not 100% certain, can we do a rough management of the crisis?

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Uncertainty exists, but the direction of many studies is the same.

If we don't change, the climate crisis will get worse and more severe natural disasters will come.

As we felt during this typhoon, all we can do in the face of a huge natural disaster is not to leave the house, be careful and be careful.

If it doesn't change, your chances of doing heavy damage will increase.

Scientists are warning that Korea, in particular, could suffer even greater damage. 

This is the letter Mabu News has prepared for you today.

Today, we looked at the typhoon data and the super typhoon to come.

The question Mabu News asks its readers today is this.

How much do you readers feel about climate change?

Seeing the rain pouring down like a squall in Southeast Asia sometimes makes me feel like the weather is different from what it used to be.

Let our readers know what you think in the comments below.

Thank you for reading this long post today.

(*This article is an edited article from the Witchcraft Newsletter.)

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 : Hye-    min Ahn

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 : Do-yeon Kim, Hae-ram Joo