“Summer will be increasingly hot”: Russian climatologist on the causes of abnormal drought in Europe and global warming

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- Climatologists cannot objectively assess the scale of droughts in Europe, which were several hundred years ago.

They are guided only by indirect data, so such statements should be treated with skepticism.

But the drought is very severe, since the level of many European rivers has dropped so much.

Speaking from the point of view of meteorology, the main reason for the current drought is a blocking anticyclone (a strong and practically immovable anticyclone that does not let wet and cool air masses from the Atlantic into the territory it occupies and provides an atmosphere transparent to sunlight. -

), which has been over Europe for a long time.

Such an anticyclone in summer always leads to heat waves.

July in Europe was dry and hot, so soil moisture decreased and, accordingly, drought set in in August.

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- The occurrence of a cyclone and a heat wave are associated with the dynamics of the atmosphere.

And such phenomena over Western and Eastern Europe are observed quite often.

Often, scientists some time after such anomalies say that with the help of climate models they could predict the formation of such anticyclones, heat and drought in a month or more.

Intensive research is being carried out in this direction, but so far, unfortunately, progress has not been as great as we would like.

As we can see, the discussed anticyclone was not predicted in advance, which means that both models and forecasting methods need further development.

Of course, global warming also affects the heat.

Temperatures are rising all over the planet, including Europe.

Over the past 50 years, the overall summer temperature in Europe has risen by 1.5 - 2°C.

In addition, some studies show that due to global warming, anticyclones may increase in summer, while they contribute to increased heat.

According to climatologists, every year the summer will be more and more hot, not at all the same as 30-40 years ago.

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• © Vitalij Cerepok / EyeEm

— Why is there no drought in Russia, unlike in Europe, this year?

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There is a theory that anticyclones are part of a wave in the atmosphere, standing in one place.

In this case, a temperature wave is also formed with anomalies of different signs along the latitudinal circle.

We can see this by analyzing the climate throughout Russia.

In particular, it is now hot in its European part, while in Central Siberia, on the contrary, it is cold, in Eastern Siberia it is hot again, and so on.

I note that there are studies that link heat in the middle latitudes with anomalies in the northern or southern latitudes.

For example, a large zone of low temperature has been observed in the North Atlantic for several years now.

It is possible that this could also have contributed, but so far these are only hypotheses, although they are sufficiently substantiated theoretically.

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- The average climate of the Earth is made up of the climates of regions averaged over the entire surface of the planet.

Thus, the European drought will be balanced to some extent by the cold anomalies of Central Siberia and North America and the global effect will not be so strong.

However, as I believe, these anomalies will be, though small, but positive, over the years slowly but surely forming global warming at a rate of about 0.1°C for 10 years.

Climatologists say that the main cause of global warming is human activity

“Global warming can be prevented only by joint efforts.

It is necessary to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which are formed mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels - coal, oil, gas, etc.

This is the aim of the Paris Agreement signed in 2015.

It is expected that with a decrease in the growth of gas emissions somewhere by the middle of this century, the temperature increase will also slow down.

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• © Ezra Bailey

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— The August heat wave in Moscow will probably be close in terms of monthly averages to the anomaly of 2010, which, in general, however, was much more extreme.

Then the temperatures in the capital in July reached 40°C.

Now there is more panic.

You can't call air hot at 32°C.

In New York City, for example, average monthly daily temperatures in July and August reach 30°C, and people do well in such a climate.

Although July was relatively hot in Moscow, precipitation fell throughout the month.

What cannot be said about the extreme heat of 2010, when there was no rain for a month and a half.

It must be understood that one heat wave is different from another.

For example, last week there was also an anticyclone, but the air from the south did not enter the European part of Russia.

It was hot in the sun, but as soon as a person went into the shade, he became comfortable and cool.

This week, the anticyclone has shifted, and we are receiving hot air from the Caspian deserts.

Therefore, it is dry and hot, and the shadow does not save.

If such weather had stood for another two or three weeks, it could have led to the development of soil drought.

How does

- If the temperature rises to 35 - 40 ° C, then such heat is dangerous for humans.

All chronic diseases are exacerbated, in particular, cardiovascular and pulmonary.

During anticyclones, various pollutants accumulate in the atmosphere, for example, in megacities, these are gases emitted by transport and enterprises.

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• © Martin Ruegner

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- During extreme droughts, pestilence occurs when entire populations of animals die out.

Fortunately for Russia, such conditions did not arise this year.

Moreover, July 2022 was quite wet, and gardeners note that this year there will be a good harvest.

To worry about the extinction of animals in Europe, in my opinion, is also not necessary.

In 2003, there was a strong wave of heat, but even then it did not lead to a radical change in flora and fauna.

— You have already said that there is a tendency for summer temperatures to rise.

What consequences can this lead to?

“The trend of rising temperatures and the number of heat waves is evidenced by data over the past decades.

There are climate models that calculate all sorts of scenarios for future climate change with an increase in the greenhouse effect.

And they show that around the globe, the number of heat waves and their intensity will increase.

Among the negative consequences of this, I can single out droughts, an increase in mortality, fires, melting glaciers, as well as problems in the energy sector.

Power plants need to cool the coolant, and this can be difficult if the temperature rises significantly.

As a result, energy production will drop sharply.