The Meteorological Agency's rain forecast accuracy, which was over 95%, drops in the summer... why?

Heavy rain that fell in the metropolitan area last week, there were a lot of places that came much more than the weather agency forecast.

Every time this happens, the forecast accuracy of the Korea Meteorological Administration is rising to the cubic level.

According to the National Meteorological Administration and the Legislative Investigation Agency of the National Assembly on the 12th, the accuracy of precipitation between January and May of this year reached 95.7%.

However, during the summer months, the forecast accuracy drops to around 10 percentage points.

The Korea Meteorological Administration explained that 'the atmosphere is unstable in summer, making it difficult to accurately predict the time and place of precipitation.

There is also an aspect that the hit rate is higher than the real thing due to an optical illusion effect.

If it doesn't rain on a day without rain forecast, it is counted as a hit, so if you exclude this hit without rain, the hit rate is less than 50%.

The Board of Audit and Inspection, which audited the Korea Meteorological Administration in 2017, also pointed out that 'the method of calculating the accuracy of the Meteorological Agency is not wrong or intended to inflate, but the evaluation method of the weather forecast is insufficient and does not meet the public's expectations'.