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News summary on the way home from work, Subsletter Evening.
The government is a little hesitant to use the word Corona 6 pandemic, but in fact, the 6th pandemic has begun, and the first pandemic has come since the new government was launched.
President Yoon Seok-yeol's principle of quarantine is 'scientific quarantine' in one word. Can scientific quarantine overcome the pandemic?
70,000 people at once... Teenagers and 20s 35%
As of the announcement date, the number of corona confirmed cases has risen to 41,310 (16th/Sat) → 40,342 (17th/sun) → 26,299 (yesterday/Mon), and after entering the re-spreading phase, it stayed in the low 40,000 range at most. But today (the 19th), the number has risen sharply.
73,582, the highest number of confirmed cases in 83 days since April 27 (76,765).
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If you look at the graph, it is a gentle U-shape, but since the so-called 'doubling' phenomenon, in which the number of new confirmed cases increases by about two times compared to a week ago, has been going on since the beginning of this month, you can expect that the slope of the graph will become steeper in the future.
What is noteworthy about the age of the confirmed patients is that the proportion of those in their teens and 20s is high.
People in their 20s account for 19.2% and teenagers at 16.3%, which together account for 35.5%.
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Although the number of confirmed cases is rapidly increasing, the number of critically ill patients and deaths, an important indicator for judging the risk of an outbreak, is maintaining a stable level compared to the previous Omicron pandemic.
The current mutant virus spreads quickly to many people, but it's not poisonous.
The dominant BA.5 mutation… "Radio power and immunity evasion ↑"
Let's learn more about the current virus.
'BA.5', a descendant of Omicron, is the most detected.
If the detection rate exceeds 50%, it is considered to be a dominant species.
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However, if we look at the detection rate of 'BA.5' by dividing domestic infection and overseas inflow, the detection rate of domestic infection in the second week of July was 47.2%, which is the highest compared to other mutations, but it is slightly below 50%.
However, the rate of spread is terrifying, as it increased by 23.5 percentage points from 23.7% in one week.
It seems only a matter of time before it becomes the dominant species among domestic infections.
It is highly probable that it has already exceeded 50%.
The properties of BA.5 have already been known through several briefings by the quarantine authorities, and it is said that it has 35.1% faster propagation power than stealth Omicron (BA.2) and 3 times stronger than Omicron mutation in its ability to neutralize antibodies.
It has excellent ability to penetrate the antibody formed by infection and the antibody formed by the vaccine and penetrate into the body.
This can lead to an increase in breakthrough infection or reinfection.
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As BA.5, which has strong transmission and immunity evasion ability, is leading the relapse, the infection reproduction index, a measure of the epidemic, is also rising.
The Infection Reproduction Index is an indicator of how many people a patient infects nearby people.
After falling to 0.74 in the first week of June, it rose for the sixth consecutive week.
All graphs are to the right.
An increase in the trend forecast… 6th pandemic begins
The epidemic is spreading, and Lim Sook-young, head of the situation in charge of Bang Dae-bon, asked whether the current situation is the 6th pandemic at a regular briefing and said, "The spread is continuously increasing, so I judge it as a fashion.." In fact, the 6th pandemic started. I acknowledged
At the same time, I revised the epidemic forecast, and the main content is that the number of confirmed cases is likely to increase to 100,000 in August, and the peak can be formed at around 250,000 (200,000 to 280,000) in mid-to-late August. .
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We are also judging the current situation as a fashionable situation.
So, as I said, as analyzed in our press release, as the current outbreak continues, we and many researchers are saying that it will probably peak between mid-August and mid-August.
And the width of the occurrence is probably more than 200,000, and up to 270,000 to 280,000 is possible, we are judging.
On the 13th, the government predicted that the peak of this epidemic would form at the level of 185,000 people at the end of September.
However, there is also an analysis that the trend may progress at a faster rate and on a larger scale than the revision expected.
Experts are most concerned about the timing of the overlapping of summer vacation and vacation season, and the fact that immunity formed by vaccination or infection has declined and there is no vaccine to respond to mutations is also mentioned as a factor in the spread.
Is the 'double peak' trend coming?
In addition, the mutation of BA.2.75, also known as 'Centaur', which is known to have stronger transmission power than BA.5 and good immune evasion ability, is also a threat.
It is known that 'Centaur' has stronger immune evasion than BA.5.
On the 14th, the first confirmed case of BA.2.75 mutation was confirmed in Korea, and although no additional confirmed cases were found, the quarantine authorities have not yet been able to figure out how the first confirmed person was infected.
Since the first infected person has never traveled abroad, we can only guess that they were infected in the community.
So far, the presumed pre-infected persons investigated so far have not yet been identified.
(..) (Additional confirmed cases) The size of the outbreak will increase over time, but it is not yet easy to predict how much it will spread, as many factors are at work in the local community in Korea.
(Park Young-joon, head of the epidemiological investigation team, Bang Dae-bon)
Once BA.2.75 (centaur) has landed in Korea, it will be a matter of time for this mutation to spread due to the nature of the mutation. is also coming out.
It means that soon after the peak due to BA.5, another peak due to BA.2.75 will appear.
Ssangbong type can be explained by the size of the overall trend getting bigger and the duration longer.
'Scientific quarantine' meets the pandemic, put on a test bed
This is the first pandemic since the inauguration of the new government.
“The basic philosophy of our government in response to Corona is scientific quarantine. Scientific quarantine is where the decision-making governance to respond to the coronavirus is made by experts, and prevention and treatment based on scientific evidence,” he explained, explaining what scientific quarantine is. We should focus on autonomy and responsibility rather than sacrifice and coercion, and do our best to monitor the lives and health of the people with a focus on severe management.”
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Corona is at the crossroads of re-spreading.
The basic philosophy of our government in response to the coronavirus is scientific quarantine.
Scientific quarantine is when the decision-making governance in response to the coronavirus is made by experts, and prevention and treatment are based on scientific evidence.
On the 13th, the government announced a plan to respond to the corona outbreak.
We should focus on autonomy and responsibility rather than sacrifice and coercion of the people, and do our best to take care of the lives and health of the people with a focus on severe management.
The main body of scientific quarantine is the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
They have the most expertise and have accumulated know-how in fighting infectious diseases.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) Director Baek Kyung-ran said something similar to President Yoon, saying, "The state-led quarantine centered on control is not sustainable and it is not a goal to aim for."
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I do not think control-oriented, state-led quarantine is not sustainable and is not a goal we are aiming for.
The South Korean government should stabilize the quarantine situation and minimize inconveniences in the daily lives of the people.
In particular, given the difficult economic situation, we will strive to minimize the negative impact on people's livelihoods.
While the focus is on protecting the high-risk groups who are vulnerable to severe illness and death, the emphasis is on voluntary and participatory lifestyle prevention.
There is a dissatisfaction of the kind of 'Are you saying that each of us should live on our own?'
There are also complaints that the concreteness of scientific quarantine is not visible.
On the other hand, there are opinions that the pattern is different from the Omicron epidemic earlier this year and the response should be different in that the recent surge in confirmed cases has not yet led to a surge in severe cases and deaths.
If we focus on catching the spread, the suffering of the self-employed and small business owners will follow, and if left to individual autonomy, it will spread so rapidly that the government cannot handle it, and all measures can become a 'backbook'.
The battle between viruses and scientific quarantine is just the beginning.
a piece of the day
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Look at the bottom right of the photo.
The tour of the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom has resumed, and the North Korean military is shooting something with a camera toward the south through a gap in the Panmungak window on the north side of Panmunjom.
(Photo = Yonhap News)
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