Covid-19: the number of deaths would be largely underestimated according to a study by The Lancet

A man walks past a mural honoring Covid-19 pandemic caregivers in Acapulco, Mexico, May 1, 2020. © Francisco Robles / AFP

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The Covid-19 pandemic would have caused more than 18 million deaths worldwide between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2021, more than three times the official toll, according to a study published in the journal

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A balance sheet largely revised upwards.

The official figure counts 5.94 million deaths worldwide between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021. But the study published in the journal

reassesses this figure and estimates it at 18.2 million deaths linked to the Covid-19 over this same period, more than triple the official balance sheet, based on calculations based on excess mortality.

NEW—Global death toll of #COVID19 pandemic may be more than three times higher than official records, estimates of excess deaths indicate.

Read the analysis in full: https://t.co/nHQSrT0qal @IHME_UW pic.twitter.com/7V7sROowuR

— The Lancet (@TheLancet) March 10, 2022

The authors of the study have indeed worked on the difference between the number of people who died, whatever the cause of their death, and the number of expected deaths, based on past data.

The difference between the excess mortality and the recorded Covid-19 deaths could lie in the under-diagnosis of coronavirus infections, and/or by deaths from other diseases higher than anticipated under the effect of changes in behaviors or less access to care, according to the researchers.

However, the authors recognize certain limits to their study and consider that further work is necessary to measure the excess mortality directly due to Covid-19.

Among the most affected regions, the Andean countries of Latin America, eastern and central Europe, the south of sub-Saharan Africa.

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