Svrsletter Evening (2/11): It is said that 'distancing' is eased... next week?

News summary on the way home from work, Subsletter Evening.

The government seems to be easing quarantine measures, including social distancing.

We are sending out a message of mitigating quarantine with several assumptions.

Even in an epidemic situation where omic mutation is rapidly spreading, it is more clearly suggesting the policy of paradigm shift in quarantine.

This means that the policy will be focused on the prevention and management of severe cases rather than controlling the number of confirmed cases.  

Kim Bu-gyeom "I will make a courageous decision anytime"

Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom hinted that social distancing could be eased.

I made some assumptions, but look at the remarks made by Prime Minister Kim at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting.

“It is also a very important task to minimize economic and social damage by closely analyzing and evaluating the quarantine situation and adjusting social distancing. I promise to make a courageous decision at any time.”

Even if the number of confirmed cases rises, it is implied that distance measures can be relaxed if there is no significant increase in the number of severe cases and deaths and the medical system is stable.

Judging by the use of the expression 'courageous decision', it seems that drastic measures to ease quarantine were in mind.

Lee Ki-il, 1st Commander of the Central Script, explained the meaning of the Prime Minister's remarks in detail.

"There is still a week left (until the current social distancing ends), but despite this, it is an expression of our will if we can (adjustment)."

Can social distancing be eased next week?

First Controller Ki-il Lee explained that the distance adjustment could be made earlier than planned and next week, of course, on the premise that the decision would be made after comprehensively judging the Omicron epidemic situation and quarantine policy.

The key to the current distance is 'the maximum number of private gatherings is limited to 6 people and business hours are limited to 9pm', and this measure started on the 17th of last month.

It was scheduled to end on the 6th, but it will be extended by two weeks and will continue until the 20th.

When announcing the extension of the distance, the government said, "We discussed the adjustment of distance in the future as much as possible without further strengthening." I mean, it's alleviating.

However, looking at the government's announcement today, it seems that easing can be done without waiting until the 20th. 

Paradigm shift in quarantine

After the Omicron mutation became the dominant species, the stance of the quarantine policy is changing clearly.

Rather than controlling the number of confirmed cases, the direction has been focused on the management of critically ill patients and deaths.

This change of direction was publicly discussed on the 4th, when the government said, "Even if the number of confirmed cases increases, if the seriousness and fatality rate remain stable and the medical system has enough room, the quarantine regulations will be lifted step by step and try to restore daily life again. “We will fully review the possibility of transitioning to a routine quarantine and medical system similar to seasonal flu while evaluating the medical system’s capacity, final aggravation rate, and fatality rate.”

This is the result of comprehensive judgment on the fact that the severity and fatality rate remain at one-third of the existing delta mutation, and the response system such as bed capacity remains stable.

"It's too early... to be cautious about mitigating quarantine" 

There are still many people who are concerned about the government's efforts to ease the distance by using the term 'seasonal flu'.

There are also voices of concern within the government, but the head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Jeong Eun-kyung appeared at the National Assembly on the 7th and said, "It is much more contagious than seasonal flu, and the fatality rate is more than twice as high, so it is too early to manage it like seasonal flu. I understand that it was explained with the meaning of responding to the

“It will eventually become endemic, but uncertainty is still high,” said Commissioner Jeong Eun-kyung.

There are many experts who say that the Omicron mutation can give a message that it is similar to a cold and that there is a lack of preparation, and that we should be careful about implementing With Corona.

In an interview with Yonhap News Agency, Professor Cheon Byung-cheol of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Korea University said, "At a time when the number of confirmed cases increases, we need to buy as much time as possible to prepare so that social functions do not become paralyzed. It seems that preparations are not yet sufficient, but the public is optimistic that Omicron is like a cold. I'm worried that it will be taken as a message of management."

Jeong Jae-hoon, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine, also said, "I think it's dangerous to make a big change until it reaches the pinnacle of fashion."

Jung Jae-hoon "The peak of the epidemic in March… More than 200,000 new confirmed" 

The most worrisome thing in the decision to ease quarantine is the strong transmission power of Omicron.

There are many predictions about when the peak of the epidemic will come and how many new confirmed cases will be.

Professor Jung posted a long article on SNS, 'What have we endured for two years?' I said it would

- As a result of our team's prediction, it is expected that the peak of the epidemic could reach a maximum of 200,000 daily confirmed cases in Korea.

In addition, the month of March is expected to reach the peak of the trend.

In Korea, since the number of people who acquired immunity through past infections is small, the scale (larger) of the epidemic is rather long.

- Fortunately, due to the reduction in the severity of Omicron itself and the effect of booster vaccination, the critical care system in Korea seems to be barely able to handle it.

Professor Jeong also said that a very serious epidemic will reach our society in the next two months, and that he has been preparing for two years to withstand the current fashion.

Here is a summary of the dangers of Omicron.

"Omicron mutation is not as dangerous as the previous COVID-19, but it is also not mild enough to be dismissed as the flu."

- Numerous family members, colleagues, and acquaintances around you may be infected for the next two months.

But now, for those who are healthy and have been vaccinated, and those who are receiving oral treatment, the omicron mutation is not as dangerous as the previous Corona 19.

However, it is not a mild infectious disease that can be dismissed as the flu.

This would be an accurate representation.

As always, infection is no one's fault.

Instead, it is still important to check your symptoms and infection so that people around you can quickly identify the infection and high-risk groups can receive appropriate treatment.

- Now, measures to protect yourself from COVID-19 remain personal hygiene practices such as wearing a mask and washing hands, and vaccinations that do not guarantee complete safety from infection, but virtually prevent the possibility of progression to severe disease.

At least until the peak of the epidemic has passed and our medical system and society are confirmed to be an acceptable disease, we need to be as careful as we used to. 

The government's forecast is 130,000 to 170,000 people, but Lee Ki-il, the first chief of the Central Division, said, "At the beginning, the peak was expected at the end of February, but now it is moving over to March. As the forecast is revised, the maximum number of confirmed cases is 100,000. From 130,000 to 170,000 people,” he said.

The National Institute of Mathematical Sciences predicted that there could be up to 360,000 confirmed cases per day at the beginning of next month.

Things to prepare before easing social distancing 

In order to shift the quarantine policy to relaxed distancing, etc., a system to respond to the epidemic must be in place before that.

Rapid antigen test kits, oral treatments, home treatment systems, etc.

Prime Minister Bu-gyeom Kim sought out rapid antigen test kit manufacturers and encouraged them to increase production.

However, it is a problem that a lot of things go back and forth related to home treatment in the field. Since yesterday (10th), while changing the management system for home care workers, the guidelines have been overturned or delayed several times, and even the officials informed the wrong facts with official answers. It also happened.

While the policy was radically changed to 'self-quarantine', it was not prepared for it.

It is unavoidable to point out that it has instigated confusion and exposed the difficulties of quarantine.

There are many things to prepare for each field, such as education or care.

In November last year, 'With Corona' was implemented, but the implementation of With Corona was postponed as the number of new confirmed cases surged and the medical response reached its limit.

However, it is clear that we must go on the path of daily recovery, and there are many things to be prepared so that there is no confusion along the way.

If we loosen the distance this time, it will be difficult to tighten again, so we need to prepare more carefully.

a piece of the day

Ahead of the New Year's Day Daeboreum, the National Folklore Museum is holding a customs experience program.

The photo is a scene from the experience program.

It is said that events such as traditional games, moon-lit LED screens, and wish trees will be held.