<Anchor>
Ahead of the presidential election, the SBS data journalism team arbitrarily analyzes the presidential election data for the past 30 years and delivers continuous reports under the name of 'our neighborhood presidential election story'. Today (13th), in the first order, let's take a look at some of the regions that have tweezed the winner and the vote percentage in the previous presidential election, and how the votes in this region could be similar to the national figure.
I'm Jang Seon-i from the coaching team, and I'm Bae Yeo-woon, a reporter.
<Reporter Seon-i Jang>
After the amendment of the direct system in 1987 to 2017, the presidential election was held a total of seven times.
The SBS data journalism team's errands analyzed all the data of the previous presidential election counting from the 13th to the 19th presidential election.
How many regions have all 7 presidential-elected candidates?
I looked for a neighborhood that is a miniature version of the Korean presidential election.
First, let’s take a look at city, county, and gu units.
15 out of 252 cities, counties, and wards that got all the winners correct.
There are 7 locations in the Chungcheong area, 6 locations in Gyeonggi-do, and 2 locations in Incheon, mainly concentrated in the central area.
This time, let's take a closer look at each eup, myeon, and dong.
There are many eup, myeon, and dong areas whose names have changed over the past 30 years.
The regions that hit all 7 presidents were 146 out of the total eup, myeon, and dong.
Also, there are 75 places in Gyeonggi, 33 places in Chungcheong area, and 21 places in Incheon, which are mainly distributed in the central area.
[Bae Jong-chan/Director of Insight K: The region that can be said to be the place where the integrated character and regional characteristics closest to the national average appear is the tweezers region most similar to the votes of the presidential
election
.]
Especially among the presidential tweezers neighborhoods The area to pay attention to is Gayang 2-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul.
We accurately guessed the winners of the 7 presidential elections in the past, and the national vote percentage of the candidates as well as the elected candidates were the most similar.
[Citizen: I've voted for 30 years so far, and I've got it all right in the presidential election.]
[Citizen: I think I almost never missed it.] It's
not just this.
It was analyzed as a 'tweezers out of tweezers neighborhood' by guessing all the winners of the last 9 local elections and by-elections.
If so, what was the reason?
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<Reporter Bae Yeo-Woon> The
SBS data journalism team's errands took a closer look at the percentage of votes in the neighborhoods that got all the winners.
We analyzed the regions that showed the most similar vote rate to the overall election results by calculating the error between the national vote rate for each candidate and the vote rate for each region.
Guri-si, Gyeonggi-do, was the region that most closely matched the election results at the city, county, and gu level.
The city of Guri selected the elected candidate with a synchronization rate of 96.17%, which is the closest to the overall election turnout.
In other words, there was almost no error in the percentage of votes, which means that the votes of Guri citizens were most similar to the election results.
In addition to Guri-si, 13 of the 15 tweezers cities/guns/gus, including Seo-gu in Incheon and Sangsang-gu in Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, also had a high synchronization rate of over 90%, almost the same as the votes for the presidential election.
If so, what could be the reason that these tweezers towns were able to match the elect in a similar way?
[Jang Seong-cheol / Distinguished Professor, Daegu Catholic University: There are several characteristics of this area.
Older indigenous people and young people came in through new towns and industrial complexes.
It shows the exact average for various demographics in Korea.]
In general, these regions showed a similar trend to the national household composition at the time of the election.
If you look at Guri-si, which had the highest matching rate, it is almost similar to the composition of the national age group.
Also, when we analyzed the moving-in and moving-out status of the neighborhoods with tweezers, it was found that moving-in and moving-out were balanced.
This means that voters with diverse opinions are homogeneously composed.
As the presidential election approaches 50 days away, it will also be a point of observation to pay attention to the votes of these regions.
(Video coverage: Lee Jae-young and Lee Seung-hwan, video editing: Hwang Ji-young and Lee So-young, CG: Kim Jong-un and Jo Su-in, data analysis: Kim Seon-kyung, Joo Young-eun, Kang Dong-yong)