Omicron variant: give scientists time to analyze the phenomenon
Thailand, Bangkok airport, November 29.
Due to fears of contagion to the new variant Omicron, Thailand has prohibited access to its territory to flights from 8 countries in southern Africa.
© REUTERS / Chalinee Thirasupa
Text by: RFI Follow
4 min
The Omicron variant has gradually arrived in Europe since it was discovered in Southern Africa.
Many countries, in Europe and elsewhere in the world, are closed to flights from southern Africa and the announcements of discoveries of positive cases are increasing as in Portugal on Monday morning.
These announcements generate anxiety concerning a variant of Covid-19 on which we ultimately still have little information.
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In the space of ten days, the number of new daily cases in South Africa rose from 270 to more than 1,800. A multiplication by 7 which would be responsible for the new variant Omicron.
An impressive figure that makes the whole world tremble, but which unfortunately does not teach us much.
Indeed, despite this increase, the number of contaminations remains relatively low: it is therefore difficult to determine if it is a greater transmissibility of the variant which is responsible for it or if it has simply benefited from some kind of effect. windfall.
For the same reason, it cannot yet be determined whether Omicron causes
more or less severe
Covid-19
than Delta.
Especially since the first cases detected concerned students.
An age group not very prone to severe forms.
Finally, concerning the effectiveness of immunity, whether acquired after vaccination or infection, the problem is the same: there is a lack of data and hindsight ...
So why this wind of global panic?
Well, the reason lies on the side of genetics: analysis of the mutations carried by Omicron shows that they are very numerous and could theoretically make it more contagious.
But again, for now, no one can tell, only time will provide the answer.
►
To read also
: the first cases of the Omicron variant are multiplying in Europe
Close the borders?
It’s in vain ...
South Africa, where the new variant of Covid-19 called Omicron was detected, deemed this Monday “sad” and “regrettable” that some African countries are following the wind of panic and imposing travel restrictions on the continent.
If closing the borders can make it possible to slow down the diffusion of this variant, that will not prevent it from circulating, according to Patrick Berche, microbiologist and former director of the Institut Pasteur de Lille, at the microphone of
Marine Salaville
of the science desk.
“
If this variant has an epidemiological future, in some way, nothing will stop it.
People can cross other borders and reach European territory or France.
So he won't be stopped that way.
But we do not see how a government could escape this measure without being very strongly criticized.
"The closing of the borders is always an
"
illusory measure ",
continues Patrick Berche, who
" thinks that it is already established in Europe
".
Closing the borders slows down its circulation, however.
►
To read also
: Variant Omicron: South Africa requests the lifting of travel restrictions
“
You shouldn't have too anxious speeches either.
For the moment, it is a virus that seems to be circulating quite quickly, in a South African population which is poorly vaccinated and which has many immunocompromised people.
So we cannot know, for the moment, what will be the epidemiological future of this strain
”.
Mutating is in his nature
Especially since while it is normal for viruses to change their genetic information, not all mutations give rise to new variants. "
By definition, this virus mutates constantly,"
continues Patrick Berche
. So it's not at all surprising that we have many mutations. Most have no consequences. They are supplanted by a variant which is in advance, in a way. And so it is an evolutionary, "Darwinian" process - as we say in our jargon - which allows the strongest to supplant the others. "
Certain conditions, such as a higher viral load, must be observed.
“
The virus will try to survive at all costs.
So when we vaccinate, we will prevent the virus from circulating and therefore the virus will try to find new ways to infect people.
And for this it will, for example, in the case of the Delta variant, increase the infecting dose.
In other words, if there is a lot more virus in the saliva, you will be much more contagious and therefore this variant will be able to survive
”.
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