Our reporter Gong Mengze

　　In the context of repeated epidemics in some overseas regions, the domestic economic situation continues to improve, exports are strong, and automobile consumer demand continues to maintain steady growth.

The China Automobile Dealers Association estimates that the domestic auto market sales in May this year were 1.725 million vehicles, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year and an increase of 5.0% month-on-month; at the same time, due to the weakening of the epidemic in the same period last year, retail sales gradually recovered and the base rebounded. It is predicted that cars will be in May this year. Sales growth will slow down, and June and July will enter a seasonal decline adjustment phase.

　　The "Securities Daily" reporter observed that recently Henan, Shanghai, Hainan and other places have introduced relevant policies to promote automobile consumption.

Among them, Henan proposed to implement the comprehensive abolition of the restriction on the removal of second-hand cars; Shanghai formulated and released the implementation rules for subsidies for retiring old cars to promote consumption of new cars; Hainan released measures to stabilize and expand car consumption in 2021.

　　However, entering June, the off-season effect of the auto market has gradually emerged.

According to the analysis of the China Automobile Dealers Association, during the busy wheat harvest season, the rainy weather continued in parts of southern and southeast China, consumers went to shops to see cars and purchased cars, and market demand dropped; in addition, the impact of chip shortages spread to more models and manufacturers' production slowed down. , The order delivery time is extended.

　　In this regard, Qiu Kai, director of the Industry Coordination Department of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told reporters that overall, the auto market's operating conditions in May were relatively stable, but they did not meet the desired expectations.

"Moreover, the problem of chip shortage will also cause the extension of vehicle delivery, cause the loss of customers, and adversely affect the overall operation of dealers."

Auto market sales in May fell short of expectations

　　According to the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealers Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" VIA issued by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in May 2021 was 52.9%, a year-on-year and a month-on-month decline, down 1.3 percentage points and 3.5 points respectively. Percentage points, the inventory warning index is above the line of prosperity and decline.

　　In May, the inventory warning index declined year-on-year and month-on-month, which means that the pressure on dealers has been released to a certain extent.

But looking at the estimated sales volume in May alone, there was no expected increase.

　　According to Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, there are two main factors affecting the changes in sales in May: First, the market was relatively stable in May, but it did not meet the desired expectations.

"The sales of the auto market are divided into small and large months. April is the traditional off-season, and May is the big month." Lang Xuehong told a reporter from the Securities Daily that according to past laws, sales in May will be greater than or equal to the annual average monthly sales.

　　Second, the May Day holiday partly replaced the Spring Festival holiday, and people returned to their hometowns to travel, which affected the number of shop visits and transactions.

After the holiday, due to repeated epidemics in some areas and busy farming in some areas, market demand was insufficient, and sales were basically the same month-on-month.

　　Specifically, regarding dealer operations in May, the China Automobile Dealers Association pointed out that the shortage of chips caused manufacturers to implement production reduction plans. Some dealers said that there was a shortage of supply for hot-selling models. The extended delivery cycle of vehicles led to unstable sales and funds. Trapped in vehicles on the road, the turnover is tight.

At the same time, the cost of raw materials has risen, and manufacturers have tightened their promotional policies.

In May this year, car shopping festivals were held in many places across the country, but the intensity of the activities has been reduced compared with the same period last year.

　　In Qiu Kai's view, although the previous Shanghai Auto Show helped release demand, it still requires a certain process to convert it into actual purchasing power.

　　Looking forward to June, the China Automobile Dealers Association judges that the auto market will enter the traditional off-season in June, and dealers will also face a sprint in sales in the second quarter and the first half of the year, and the pressure will not decrease.

In addition, due to insufficient supply caused by the shortage of chips, dealers are expected to focus on insured sales, and the intensity of the price war will be lower than that of the same period in previous years.

The shortage of raw materials drives up car prices

　　The reporter noticed that due to the superposition of multiple unfavorable factors such as "core shortage", "steel shortage", and "copper shortage", manufacturers and dealers cannot bear all of them. Therefore, the prices of some new cars and second-hand cars of various levels on the market are in May. There has been an overall increase, among which SUV models have increased even more.

　　According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the price of high-end brand second-hand cars has risen the most, and even the price of the "marginalized" DS brand has also risen.

In contrast, Tesla's price decline is due to the declining reputation on the one hand, and on the other hand the limitations of electric vehicles determine that it still has a gap with the first-tier high-end brands.

　　The value retention rate of joint venture brands rose overall, with Volkswagen brands rising the most, with Lavida and Magotan rising by 2 points; for independent brands, Lynk & Co and Roewe brands rose significantly.

Among them, Roewe's new i5 sedan has been remodeled and replaced, and the price of used cars has risen; the gap between the Besturn brand and other leaders has widened, and no new models have appeared in the used car market for the time being.

　　In terms of new energy vehicles, in May, the three-year maintenance rate of pure electric models exceeded 40%, reaching 41.1%, which is a relatively high level in the near future; the three-year maintenance rate of plug-in hybrid models reached 48.8%, compared with the previous month. Promoted.

In terms of specific models, the price of imported models remains high among the rankings of the three-year-old car's retention rate.

Among domestic models, BYD has a certain scale advantage.

In the ranking of one-year vehicle age retention rate, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is second only to Tesla Model X.

　　It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Public Security, and the General Office of the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Notice on Promoting the Registration of Second-hand Car Transactions to facilitate cross-provincial transactions in second-hand cars."

Li Xin, director of the Information Department of the China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that this will be one of the specific measures to promote the prosperity and development of the second-hand car market this year. Macroeconomic and policy support will make the second-hand car market full of expectations.