"The main hypotheses have been formed": the Russian expert commented on the conclusions of the WHO mission on the origin of the coronavirus

- The World Health Organization released a report on the results of the trip of a group of experts to China, the purpose of which was to establish the source of the origin of the coronavirus infection.

The lack of unequivocal conclusions in this document caused some bewilderment, a number of countries expressed concern about this.

Are you satisfied with the results of the study?

Or did they expect more concrete conclusions to be drawn?

- For some reason, people somehow imagine it this way: a group of experts comes in a year, comes to the market, and there is still this hypothetical animal.

It doesn't work that way.

Our mission was originally called "Phase One".

No one expected that we would find answers to questions right away.

This was preparatory work, the accumulated data were analyzed, summarized, conclusions were drawn, hypotheses were formed in order to plan further work.

It was clear that we would not get any answers right away.

This is the preliminary stage of a long journey that has yet to be traversed.

- How long can this path take?

When can we get some kind of answer?

- As luck would have it, this is research.

The faster the better.

It can take quite a long time, a lot of work is needed.

It will depend on what forces and means are attracted.

There are nuances here.

We do not know from which animal the virus passed to humans.

We assume they were bats.

We do not know where the virus came from geographically, we can only assume.

It may be that the virus in the animal population has not fixed itself as a natural focus.

And we can find it only when the natural focus has been formed.

There may be such a story that a virus, once formed, went into the human population and remained in it, but was eliminated in nature.

And we will look for it for a long time and with feeling, but we will not find it.

It is very difficult to say how long it will take and how it will end.

However, this must be done.

- During the mission, were there any restrictions on the part of the official Beijing?

Or did you get access wherever you wanted to go?

- Where they wanted to go - they got everywhere.

It is clear that the list of objects to which the visit will be organized was discussed and approved.

• Municipal Market in Wuhan is currently closed and disinfected

• Reuters

• © Aly Song

We were on the market, at the Institute of Virology and in other laboratories of the CDC, this is an analogue of our Rospotrebnadzor.

They showed us everything.

But, in fact, it was not very important for obtaining results.

Say, what is the use of a trip to the market?

We do not see the situation that was at the time of the beginning of the epidemic.

We see a closed market, no people, everything is taken out, disinfected.

Much more interesting was the communication with the Chinese colleagues, the acquaintance with the data that they provided.

- You can in several theses

to formulate the essence of your mission report?

So far, what have you learned about the origin of the virus?

- We assume that the virus originated between mid-November and early December 2019.

However, we do not know exactly where it originated.

Most likely, this is China, but this is from my point of view.

We do not know who was the first to fall ill.

It is unlikely that the outbreak started from the market.

Most likely, someone sick has already entered the market and infected everyone there en masse.

There were patients who had nothing to do with the market, there are a lot of them.

About 40% of people who fell ill in December had no relation to the market.

We also do not know who the source of the virus is in nature.

Based on the body of knowledge about coronaviruses, we can assume that it was a bat.

That is, we know that closely related SARS-Cov-2 coronaviruses are found in bats.

• The main versions of the origin of the coronavirus are associated with bats.

  It is assumed that they transmitted the virus to humans directly or through an intermediary animal.

• Reuters

• © Nir Elias

At least four are known.

The closest one has 96% homology in genome structure.

But this is a different virus, not the same one.

So, we can assume that this one, being a relative, most likely also lives in a bat.

Source

SARS-CoV-1 had a bat in 2002-2003.

In the history of MERS, too.

Therefore, we are talking about a bat, although no one found this particular virus in it.

- Many were worried about the version of the origin of the coronavirus from a laboratory in Wuhan.

Is it considered the least likely?

- Coronaviruses circulate in nature, there are a lot of them.

Not only in bats, but also in each of us, there will certainly be a coronavirus.

Sometimes there are several varieties in one organism.

Therefore, there is nothing surprising for specialists in this field.

Personally, I know at least four respected scientists from different countries who said ten years ago: ten years later, there will be an epidemic from the coronavirus all over the Earth.

Are they fortunetellers?

No, it's just that the ecology of viruses is such that such a scenario is quite likely.

Of course, this story is politicized, everyone is trying to blame each other.

For me, the laboratory leak has never been a priority hypothesis.

All our work has been to analyze scientific facts.

Is there scientific or documentary evidence that there was a leak?

No.

We saw a well-organized laboratory with well-trained personnel, in which all the necessary regulations are carried out when working with pathogens of this hazard class and above.

The Institute of Virology in Wuhan has permission to work with especially dangerous viruses.

That is, they can work with more dangerous viruses.

The audit is carried out regularly, representatives of international organizations come to watch.

• Wuhan Institute of Virology, PRC

• Reuters

• © Stringer

Therefore, based on the data that we have to date, we cannot say that this was possible.

But we still do not reject this hypothesis completely.

Suddenly there will be some new information, scientific facts, something documented - then the priority will change.

- Tell us about the most priority, probable versions.

- Now the US is attacking, the PRC is defending itself.

The Chinese side is trying to show that they have nothing to do with it, it came from outside.

As an argument, they cite a local outbreak documented during the epidemic already on the market in Beijing.

It shows that the infection occurred through frozen food.

It is a fact.

The second fact is that a virus was also found in frozen foods on the market in Wuhan.

But the selection of materials took place not in December 2019, but in the middle and at the end of January 2021.

It could well be that already sick people processed these products.

• Briefing by Chinese experts of the WHO mission on the study of the origin of the coronavirus

• Reuters

• © Thomas Suen

The strange thing is that these products were from different suppliers and from different countries.

In my opinion, there are about 20 states.

Different types of food - fish, meat, something else.

And all this for some reason came together in one single municipal market in the city of Wuhan.

If it really came from somewhere, we would see it in other places too.

But we didn’t see that.

So this theory is also not discounted, but proofs are needed.

This version is slightly more likely than the lab leaked version.

And the leading versions, as I said, are related to the bat.

Based on our knowledge of coronaviruses, there was most likely some other intermediate animal.

Where do we proceed from?

The MERS virus, for example, passed from a bat to a person through a camel, and the SARS-CoV-1 virus through an animal, a civet.

It is logical to assume that there may be something similar here, but not necessarily.

Again, this is a theory based on the information we have.

The second leading version is the direct transfer of the virus from a bat to a person.

All four main hypotheses were formed at the final conference at the end of the visit to China, they have not changed.

- Also, the report contained a recommendation to expand the geography of search.

At the expense of what territories, countries, can it be expanded?

- How it is specifically supposed to be done, I cannot say, it is not planned yet.

But why should we expand?

Based on our knowledge of the ecology of coronaviruses.

At least four coronaviruses have been found in bats.

These mice live in Southeast Asia.

That is, this is the south of China and the adjoining countries.

Also, further study of the variety of viruses that are in these interesting animals can help to understand the processes of the emergence of new infections.

If we were engaged in a thorough study of this part of the animal world, we could understand where the danger may come from, prepare in advance.

Of course, I would like this story not to repeat itself.