Climate: 5 years after the Paris Agreement, results are long overdue
The president of COP21, Laurent Fabius, December 10, 2015. REUTERS / Stephane Mahe
Text by: Agnès Rougier
8 min
Five years ago to the day, the hammer of the president of COP21 resounded from the rostrum: the Paris Agreement had been validated by the 196 stakeholders of the conference.
This agreement validated the common objective of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the increase in global temperature to a maximum of 2 ° (if possible 1.5 °), at the end of the century.
Yet 2020 is shaping up to be one of the hottest years since the industrial revolution.
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COP21 at French time
The 21st United Nations climate conference, COP21, was held at Le Bourget near Paris in December 2015: 15 days of long discussions behind closed doors between representatives of the 195 countries plus the European Union, to
reach an agreement
.
The president of the COP, Laurent Fabius, and the French ambassador for the climate, Laurence Tubiana, have therefore spared no efforts to persuade countries that emit high greenhouse gases - the major industrialized countries and oil-producing countries - to get involved in this fight, even if an agreement concluded within the United Nations is necessarily the result of consensus, the requirements have been reduced.
The Paris Agreement, ratified by 55 countries representing 55% of greenhouse gas emissions,
entered into force
on November 4, 2016 - replacing the Kyoto Protocol, which expired in 2012 -: it is the most quickly implemented from History.
However, the 17 pages of the agreement, if they are legally binding, do not impose any means of coercion: no sanction mechanism in the event of non-compliance with commitments;
this is the main criticism addressed to him by the NGOs.
A pivotal agreement
In the ears of the delegations of the small islands, particularly exposed to global warming without being responsible for it, the signing of the agreement nevertheless resonated as a hope: "
We have concluded an agreement that changes the world, we are convinced that we have saved Tuvalu. … And we saved the world,
”said the representative of the Tuvalu Islands - an archipelago in the South Pacific.
The Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili, who was an environmental member at the time, remembers: “
I was one of the people who no longer believed in it, but this moment, when everyone pledged to make efforts , will remain etched in my memory.
"
For Corinne Le Quéré, climatologist at the University of East Anglia (GB) and president of the
High Council for the Climate (HCC)
: “
The Paris agreement is a giant step, since emissions have bent in response policies put in place before, and many countries have put the commitments made into law (…) but things are not going fast enough.
"
5 years, it goes quickly
For the past 5 years, the countries that emit the most greenhouse gases have been dragging their feet to reduce their consumption of fossil energy and their greenhouse gas emissions.
In response to government inaction, civil society mobilizes, protests and civil disobedience are launched.
On September 23, 2018, at the opening of the UN summit on the climate emergency,
Greta Thunberg
, initiator of the “Friday for Future” school strike movement, was invited to the rostrum: “
People are suffering, people are dying , entire ecosystems are collapsing, we are at the start of mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and the fairy tale of eternal economic growth.
How dare you ?
"
In France, NGOs are organizing
stalls of portraits
of President Macron in town halls to denounce the government's climate inaction.
Félix, student, activist of Non Violent Action COP 21 and dropout of portraits: “
The reality of climate change is documented, today people see the sea at their doorstep and have to leave their homes.
We will continue to mobilize because we have no choice, we must protect the habitability of Earth and France.
"
Too many emissions and bad trajectory
In 5 years, governments have failed to place the planet on the trajectory of the Paris Agreement.
Greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 1.5% on average every year for the past 10 years (in 2019, all records were broken: 59.1 billion tonnes emitted), and we are moving instead towards a warming of +3 to + 4 ° by the end of the century.
The annual report of the United Nations Environment
Program
(
UNEP
) tells us that to maintain any hope of limiting global warming to 1.5 ° by 2100, greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced. of 7.6% per year every year until 2030… we are far from it.
► Also to listen: The Paris climate agreement celebrates its 5th anniversary: what is the outcome?
In France, the National Low Carbon Strategy (
SNBC
) which gives, in 4-year increments, the emission reduction trajectory to be followed in order to comply with the Paris Agreement, was revised upwards by decree on April 21, 2020 and efforts of the first tranche postponed until 2023. For Corinne Le Quéré, president of the High Council for the Climate: “
This is a bad signal for companies and investors.
»To
Greenpeace
, Jean François Julliard denounces the delay of France on all the objectives that it has set itself, in particular in the thermal renovation of buildings, transport, and agriculture.
What to expect from COP 26
?
The next COP, which was to be held in 2020, has been postponed due to the health crisis, it will finally be held in Glasgow, Scotland, at the end of 2021.
The members of the Paris Agreement will all have to produce their national voluntary emission reduction contributions (NDCs) by then, and major countries have already made announcements: Great Britain is committed to a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030, and the
27 countries of the European Union
have agreed to reduce their emissions by 55% by the same deadline.
But the NGOs deem this commitment insufficient, they demand a reduction of 65%.
China pledged in September to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which would reduce global warming, according to the NGO
Climate Action Tracker
, from 0.2 to 0.3 ° in 2100.
Joe Biden having announced the return of the United States to the Agreement upon his inauguration, this could further remove 0.1 ° from global warming.
In total, 127 countries, responsible for 63% of greenhouse gas emissions, have already committed to a zero emissions target or are considering doing so.
Keep hope, there is no choice
On December 12, 2020, at the opening of the virtual summit for climate ambition, set up at the initiative of the UN and chaired by Great Britain (COP 26) and France, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom announces the end of direct international fossil fuel subsidies as soon as possible.
Pushed by their civil societies, one has the impression that the major emitting countries are racing for announcements.
But is this sufficient?
The Paris Agreement is not binding, however, Greenpeace spokesperson Jean-François Julliard assures us that: "
the commitments must be known to all and that the company exercises a balance of power and citizen pressure, so that political leaders are forced to make a maximum effort and respect them (…) But countries will have to arrive at COP26 with action plans, so far that is what is lacking
”.
For Pauline Boyer, from the NGO
Alternatiba,
it is the economic model that is in question: “
If we remain in the dogma of growth, on a finite planet, it will not work, we have to get out of it.
The liberal model does not make it possible to find a solution, we need to take a step back on our functioning to allow for a sustainable future.
"
► Also to listen: Paris Agreement: 5 years later, things are heating up for the climate
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