The five years from 2015 to 2019 should be the hottest time ever recorded. This is what the UN reports on Sunday, on the eve of a climate summit attended by about 60 world leaders in New York.
An increase of 1.1 ° C
The average temperature for the 2015-2019 period is expected to be 1.1 ° C higher than the 1850-1900 period, according to the report of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides the most current inventory of the climate of the Earth. The latest data confirm the trend of the previous four years, which was already the hottest ever recorded. July 2019, marked by several heat waves especially in Europe, had broken the absolute record of temperature.
Increasing greenhouse gas emissions
Coal, oil and gas continued to grow in 2018. Greenhouse gas emissions have further increased, and for 2019, they will be "at least as high," say scientists who have worked on this report for the UN . At the end of the year, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is expected to reach a new peak. 410 parts per million according to preliminary data.
A warmer planet of 3 ° C by 2100
In the current state of commitments of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will be warmer by 2.9 to 3.4 ° C by 2100. According to the report, the anti-carbon efforts of countries must be multiplied by five to contain the warming to + 1.5 ° C, as foreseen in the Paris agreement of 2015. Or at least by three to stick to + 2 ° C, the maximum limit stipulated by the text. But the real warming could be even bigger. In a worst-case scenario a team of French scientists predicted a seven-degree rise for 2100.
Another bad news in this WMO report is the acceleration of rising sea levels. In the last decade, the rate has increased to four millimeters a year, instead of three, because of the accelerated melting of the ice caps at the North and South Poles. An observation confirmed by multiple studies and satellite observations.
A gap to be filled
The report warns that "the gap has never been greater" between what the world wants to achieve and the reality of countries' climate plans. A gap that the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, wants to start filling by welcoming some sixty leaders on Monday, on the eve of the UN General Assembly, and three days after the monster demonstrations of young people in the United States. world. According to him, many leaders should promise to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.