Global warming could be much stronger than expected. The worst case scenario foresees up to +7 degrees by 2100, according to the new alarming climate models of a hundred French researchers and engineers, including the CNRS, the Atomic Energy Commission and the Meteorological Department. France. For the record, in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the worst-case scenario projected a temperature increase of "only" 4.8 degrees.
"The worst-case scenario is never ruled out because it depends on our actions and our inaction - if we continue to do nothing or not be effective enough, we risk very big disasters," Matthew's microphone said. Belliard, in the morning of Europe 1, Alain Grandjean, economist specializing in energy transition and adaptation to climate change. The objective set by the Paris Agreement on Climate to limit to 2 degrees the average increase in temperatures seems therefore more and more difficult to maintain. "Physically, it is still quite accessible.In practice, that is to say taking into account the equipment installed in the world and which consume fossil energy, we can be a little more pessimistic ..."
"It's about moving our production and consumer devices quickly," says Alain Grandjean. "France has developed a low-carbon national strategy, which at this stage is still a roadmap, but which says well what to do", namely: reduce our current energy consumption and move towards carbon-free energies.
>> READ ALSO - Yann Arthus-Bertrand: "We must have the courage to admit that we have lost the battle against climate change"
Break the fiscal dogmas to build a "survival plan"
But it is still necessary to give oneself the financial means for such a transition. For our economist, the climate emergency must take precedence over fiscal discipline. "It is out of the question to consider that a budget constraint is more important than an investment plan that would be a survival plan," he insists. "Today, we have a great chance: interest rates are almost negative.European debt is very easy to place.It is very urgent to shift budgetary dogmas to invest.
And the stakes are all the more crucial as a planet with temperatures rising by 7 degrees would become largely uninhabitable. "It's a very hostile world, where billions of people live in unbearable conditions because there are areas that are both too wet and too hot for the human body to survive," explains Alain Grandjean. "For part of the population, it will not be possible to adapt, because not everyone can afford a fan or an oxygen mask ..."