Premier League: Manchester City - Arsenal, a shock for the title

Europe 1 with AFP / Photo credit: Oli SCARFF / AFP 23:25 p.m., April 25, 2023

With a five-point lead, but two games ahead, Arsenal are a fragile leader when they go to challenge runners-up Manchester City on Wednesday for the 33rd matchday of the Premier League. And there are many reasons to worry for the Gunners. The London players are in a bad spot. Recovered from the score after leading 2-0 at Liverpool and West Ham before coming close to a home defeat against the red lantern Southampton (3-3), Arsenal let slip points at the worst time.

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Imperative success

Only a victory at the Etihad would give the Londoners, whose last title dates back to 2004, control of their destiny. And yet, even with an eight-point lead, City would still have their two games less and a less challenging schedule. After City, Arsenal will have to go to Newcastle where Manchester United (2-0) and Tottenham (6-1) were largely beaten, and receive Brighton, a surprise team in the race for Europe that it plays without complex.

As a result, the computers of the statistics specialist Opta give only a 22% chance of being champion to Arsenal against more than 55% two weeks ago. City arrive unbeaten in the last 16 games in all competitions and with eight wins and a draw in the league. Accustomed to playing decisive matches for the title at this time of year, Pep Guardiola's men have for them the experience against Arsenal who had let slip a qualification in the Champions League that stretched his arms last year, including losing to Tottenham and Newcastle on the 36th and 37th matchdays.

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A workforce still fair

The confirmation of William Saliba's withdrawal from central defence is very bad news for the Gunners who are not even sure to get him back this season. The Frenchman, injured in the back, was incredibly valuable in the implementation of the game wanted by Mikel Arteta by his defensive rigor, but also his offensive contribution in terms of recovery and ability to play in the opposing camp.

Without him, Arsenal take on average twice as many goals per game as with him and by the time Erling Haaland comes up against you, it's a dark omen. Arteta will also have to hope that able-bodied starters return to their level of the beginning of the season. City defector Oleksandr Zinchenko, midfielder Thomas Partey or winger Bukayo Saka have not looked 100% in their recent games, while Granit Xhaka was ill against Southampton. Eliminated early in both domestic cups and in the eighth round of the Europa League, Arsenal, despite its two days of Premier League in addition, has played only 43 games against 49 at City, but its squad is much less fleshed out in quality.

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Precedents that do not work in Arsenal's favour

Whichever way you look at it, the past brings no comfort to Arsenal and its supporters. This season, the two teams have already met twice for two victories for the Citizens. The first, in the FA Cup and at home (1-0), at the end of January, had been encouraging for Arsenal who had turned a lot.

The second, two weeks later at the Emirates and in the league, (3-1), had allowed City, who then had one game more than the Londoners, to regain the lead on goal difference, one of the only three days this season where Arsenal have not been first. Arsenal have lost 14 of the last 15 encounters, including the last 11 in the Premier League, and their last win at the Etihad was in January 2015, before Guardiola arrived at City.