Up to 13.2 billion won over 7 years.

This is the money that Gu Chang-mo, who succeeded in signing a non-FA long-term contract with his team NC on the 17th, will earn in the future.

Since the first prize in the lottery lottery that was drawn on the same day was about 2 billion won, it means that you have to win the first prize in the lottery every year for 7 years to earn the money you can receive.


Even in the KBO League, where large-scale contracts have recently been pouring in, Gu Chang-mo's contract is the sixth largest overall, and as a player who is not a free agent (hereinafter referred to as FA), it is the second largest amount after Kim Gwang-hyun, who made a comeback after playing as a starter in the major leagues.



In fact, in 2020 and 2022, you can immediately notice the basis for the super-large contract from the performances that Chang-mo Koo showed.

In 2020, despite missing half of the season due to an injury, he recorded 4.62 wins compared to substitutes (WAR) with 9 wins, 1 hold, 1.74 ERA in 15 games, and in 2022, 11 wins and 5 losses in 19 games He posted a 2.10 earned run average and a 3.96 WAR.


Gu Chang-mo in 2020 was a pitcher who left an unparalleled impact in Korean baseball history, except for Seon Dong-yeol, and in 2022, Koo Chang-mo also had no one beyond him, except for major leaguer Ryu Hyun-jin.

In the end, it is a part where you can easily guess how great the value of Gu Chang-mo is in the current KBO league.



The problem is that Koo Chang-mo has been injured several times since his debut and has never filled the regular innings (144 innings), and he is a player who has not even solved his military problems.


Overpay in NC?

Koo Chang-mo, who made his first-team debut in 2016, recorded a WAR of 14.54 over seven years.

Simply put, he added 14.54 wins to NC over 7 years.

From the point of view of NC, which signed a 7-year contract with Gu Chang-mo, of course, it would be nice to do better, but it would be reasonable to see that they invested money in the expectation that they would at least do what they have shown so far.

Roughly speaking, NC decided to spend 13.2 billion won, believing that Gu Chang-mo would add 14.54 wins to the team over the next 7 years, and spent about 900 million won per win.



Was the investment in NC really reasonable?

In a similar way, if you compare Gu Chang-mo's contract with other players' FA contracts, your head will be tilted.

The price per win changes slightly every year, but since 2015, it has generally stayed around 500 million won.



▶ Read related articles: What is the price of victory?



To buy something that could have been bought with 500 million won at 900 million won, 1.8 times higher... To a player who doesn't mind getting injured or leaving for the military anytime.

In vulgar terms, I wonder if NC has been caught, but this is not a problem that can be concluded so easily.

This is because the possibility of a pitcher named Chang-mo Koo being replaced is virtually zero.


Reason for premium: lack of substitutes

'Even if the impact is a bit weak, if there is a more consistent player, wouldn't it be enough to replace Gu Chang-mo?'

Now, let's take a look at some similar players.


Among the young pitchers picked after the 2014 draft, after the 10-team system, Koo Chang-mo accumulated a cumulative WAR equivalent to second place.

Even with Ko Young-pyo, who is in first place, the difference is only 0.3 wins, and he is 4 years younger.

Besides, if you look closely, you can realize one more fact.

The point is that Gu Chang-mo is the only left-hander among the top 10 players.


If you look at only left-handed pitchers, the value of Gu Chang-mo stands out even more.

Looking at the league environment where left-handed hitters are increasing, the value of Gu Chang-mo, the 'exclusive left-handed pitcher', is naturally proven. 



▶ View related article: Can teenagers become the 'right wing' of Korean baseball?


Last objection: Is there a possibility that the second Gu Chang-mo will appear belatedly?

At this point, I would like to applaud NC's reasonable investment decision, but I will still consider one last possibility.

What if Koo Chang-mo is a player of a similar age and 'a player who accidentally blossomed quickly', and another player who can perform similarly at any time can emerge.



This is because there can be enough players whose skills are in full bloom belatedly after serving in the military in their mid-20s.

If so, wouldn't it be possible to say that NC's decision to give a large amount of money to an unfinished player living with an injury was a bit hasty?

But again, that's not the case.

This is because Gu Chang-mo's players of the same age are the so-called 'valley generation'.



As is well known, in Korea, the total amount of youth talent entering a particular event tends to be proportional to their performance in major sporting events.

The case of Samsung Won Tae-in, a 'Beijing Kids' born in 2000 who started baseball riding the boom of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, would be a representative case.



For sports prospects born in the mid-1990s, the legend of the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup semifinals did just that.

If they were the same price, there was a greater incentive to flow into soccer, and fewer prospects flow into baseball compared to other eras.


The ratio of WAR to all players under the age of 25, who can be called real prospects, reached 51.6% of the total in 1994 and 32.4% in 2008. ’.



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