On the 3rd, right after the Korean national soccer team confirmed its advance to the round of 16 at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, data specialist Opta predicted a 14.41% chance for Korea to beat Brazil and advance to the quarterfinals.
At that time, among the teams that qualified for the round of 16, they narrowly beat 13.78% of Australia, who met Argentina, and finished 15th.
Two days after that, today (5th), Opta announced data that raised the probability of Korea's advance to the quarterfinals to 15.99%.
This is an improvement of 1.58 percentage points from the original data of 14.41%, so the probability of Korea defeating Brazil in a penalty shootout after a win or draw has increased by about 11%.
According to Opta's calculations, South Korea has a 6.43% chance of reaching the semifinals, a 1.48% chance of advancing to the finals, and a 0.38% chance of winning.
Sports data start-up company Sports Vivas analyzed the movement of odds by overseas betting companies and calculated that Korea's chance of advancing to the quarterfinals rose from 12% to 15.2%.
The company said Korea had a 7.3% chance of winning against Brazil in regular time, a 1.8% chance of winning in overtime, and a 6.1% chance of winning in a penalty shootout.
An official from Sports Vivas explained, "Brazil lost Alex Tellis and Gabriel Jejus to injuries, and Korea's chances of advancing to the quarterfinals increased as Kim Min-jae's return was predicted."
In addition, the company added that there is a 40% chance of advancing to the next round between Croatia and Japan in the round of 16, adding that there is a 6% chance that the Korea-Japan match will happen in the quarterfinals.
(Photo = Yonhap News)