Excessive self-confidence and pathological stubbornness: what can prevent Makhachev and Yan from winning UFC 280

Overconfidence in wrestling and lack of a granite jaw

Over the past few years, Charles Oliveira has managed to make his way from the middle peasant in the lightweight division to the title holder and record holder of the Absolute Fighting Championship in the number of early victories.

Since December 2020, he has taken over the four stars of the category, and if not for the failed weigh-in, he could not only own the belt, but also claim to repeat the achievement in terms of the number of consecutive defenses.

It is all the more remarkable that all these successes do not allow him to be considered a favorite in the main fight of UFC 280. On the eve of the show, bookmakers prefer Islam Makhachev.

Although he had not previously fought with any current representative of the top 5 rating.

The Russian comes to the tournament in Abu Dhabi on a series of ten won fights, six of which were completed ahead of schedule.

And also in the status of the unofficial lightweight leader and his most dominant fighter.

In terms of the percentage of successful passes to the legs, he already ranks first among the current representatives of the division (66.7%), and in the total number of takedowns (24) he is in the top ten.

And this is with living veterans Clay Guide, Frankie Edgar and Jim Miller, each of whom has been fighting in the largest MMA promotion on the planet for over 14 years.

Makhachev himself is well aware of his strengths.

Both during the media day and at the official press conference, he emphasized his advantage in wrestling skills and spoke openly about his intention to finish the opponent on the “zero floor”.

But if in battles, for example, with Dan Hooker or Bobby Green, it would be logical to focus on this, then in a duel with Charles Oliveira it can be reckless.

Indeed, this time he will be opposed by a kickboxer who is not experiencing colossal problems on earth, but by a master of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, who has repeatedly confirmed his status in the octagon.

Previously, Du Bronx has already forced opponents to surrender 16 times and will certainly have another chance.

Makhachev's intention to demonstrate superiority in grappling is understandable.

Judging by his words, he is going to not only take over Oliveira and become the second Russian lightweight champion in history, but also deal with an opponent on his “territory”.

And although the desire to prove to the whole world who is the best fighter in the category is respected, the risks are too great.

Charles is ready to take advantage of any mistake and both instantly throw a guillotine or triangle, and get behind his back in order to choke him from behind.

Previously, more than one athlete suffered a crushing defeat due to the underestimation of Oliveira's abilities in grappling.

Most of them were well aware of his trump cards, but still tried to pass at his feet, which was followed by immediate punishment.

The same Guida and physically powerful Kevin Lee went ahead so imprudently that they literally “flew” into the guillotine that was waiting for them.

Darren Elkins, although he managed to slam Charles into the floor, hesitated for a second and was immediately enclosed in a triangle.

The same fate befell Andy Ogli, and Efrain Escudero and Dustin Poirier allowed the Brazilian to climb onto his back and from there secure the lock around his neck.

Of course, the above-named rivals of Oliveira differed in the level of wrestling skills and were certainly inferior to Makhachev in this aspect.

But all of them were united by inattention to both his physical qualities and grappling skills.

And according to Islam, one might get the impression that he is going to make the same mistake.

Yes, he has many hours of sparring with top opponents and even Khabib Nurmagomedov himself, but this does not guarantee him an advantage on the ground.

Charles is rightfully considered one of the most dodgy fighters and will not miss the chance to take advantage of the misfire of the enemy.

Therefore, some experts believe that an exchange in the standing position will be even more profitable for Makhachev, because in this case he actually neutralizes the strengths of Oliveira.

Although the Brazilian is also extremely dangerous on his feet, he still often acts recklessly and makes many mistakes.

In battles with Justin Gati and Dustin Poirier, he was knocked down once, David Teymur, a participant in The Ultimate Fighter show, sent him to the floor, and Cub Swanson won ahead of schedule.

Islam is unlikely to be able to repeat their achievements, because he is a much more cautious drummer, but he has the ability to systematically interrupt Charles and at the same time not miss himself.

No wonder he earned the title of UFC champion in defense (0.79 hits per minute on average), and also ranks second in hitting accuracy, second only to the same Gaethje.

But in this case, Makhachev also risks.

Firstly, excessive discretion may be an extra reason for the judges to give preference to Oliveira.

Secondly, the former champion is skilled enough in the stand and can get a challenger.

And Islam cannot boast of a granite jaw.

In 2015, he missed a devastating counter and lost to Adriano Martins.

Boxing Skills and Knockout Charge

In the fight between Peter Yan and Sean O'Malley, the situation is diametrically opposite.

In this case, two strongest strikers with excellent boxing skills will meet each other.

But if the Russian has already managed to show them in duels with the top bantamweights, then the American does not yet have such experience.

And although he does not have one of the greatest fighters in the history of MMA behind him, the management continues to give him one advance after another.

And already in Abu Dhabi, the 11th number of the rating can, with the help of one accurate blow, jump over all the stars of the category and become the first contender.

Even Conor McGregor had to work harder and deal with more powerful opponents to get to Jose Aldo.

If you believe the words of both opponents, then in this fight they will also try not to take advantage of each other's weaknesses, but to focus on their strengths.

In recent days, none of them even considered the possibility that the fight could move to the ground.

Although it would be quite profitable for Jan.

Even if he is a basic boxer, but over the years in mixed martial arts he has “pumped over” very well in other aspects.

Suffice it to recall how he threw Algemain Sterling around the cage and easily translated Urijah Faber himself, the founder of the Team Alpha Male gym, who was primarily famous for his wrestling.

The same can't be said about O'Malley.

In his previous ten fights in the UFC, he has missed six takedowns and has a mere 64% defense against leg passes.

And Jan, although infrequently tries to lay his counterpart on the ground (1.48 attempts on average in 15 minutes), he succeeds in this (61.5% of cases).

According to this indicator, he is second only to one current representative of the category - Montel Jackson (75.9%).

But despite all this, the likelihood that Yang will give up the opportunity to kill himself is too small.

After two losses in a row to Sterling, he will certainly want to show an extremely bright and dominant performance to surprise all the critics.

And "staying" the opponent is unlikely to help achieve this goal.

Most likely, Peter will try not only to knock out Sean, but also to take revenge on him for all those rude statements addressed to him that he has allowed over the past years.

And the skirmish at the press conference is another confirmation of this.

However, O'Malley is not a weak drummer.

Although he cannot be called a versatile fighter, he is very good in exchanges.

Due to his long arms, Sean is able to keep his opponent at a favorable distance for himself, and his reflexes and timing make him an extremely skilled counterpuncher.

And in this regard, he seems more dangerous than the same Corey Sandhagen, with whom Ian fought a year ago.

Even though he had a large arsenal, he got lost under pressure and could not respond with emphasis.

O'Malley is good on collision courses and could theoretically create serious problems for Ian.

Peter himself noted his right straight and uppercut, but do not forget about the attacks of the left.

Sean changes stances great and is able to knock out even from an unusual position for himself.

It was this technique that helped him deal with Thomas Almeida, a bright athlete who several years ago was considered one of the main talents of the lightest division.

Of course, if O'Malley fails to act as the first number, then he will most likely lose the opportunity to attack with his feet, in which he has made significant progress.

But even in this scenario, it will have a high chance of success.

Although Jan is extremely strong physically, he has never been famous for impeccable defense.

Sandhagen and Sterling, and even Jimmy Rivera, surpassed him in the number of hits.

And Sean hits better than any of them.