The next numbered tournament of the Absolute Fighting Championship is bound to become one of the main events of the month in mixed martial arts.
And not only because of the long-awaited rematch between Amanda Nunez and Julianne Peña, but also because of the performance of two Russians at once in the main card of the show.
And although Magomed Ankalaev will enter the cage before Sergei Pavlovich, it is he who will solve a more serious problem this evening.
A win over Anthony Smith could well earn him first contender status for the light heavyweight title.
In many ways, Ankalaev's path to the belt resembles the one that Islam Makhachev is currently passing.
Like a compatriot, he could not do without defeats in the largest promotion in the world.
But if the lightweight lost in his second fight in the UFC, then failure awaited Magomed in his debut.
It's hard to think of a more offensive way to give in.
For three rounds, the Russian dominated Paul Craig, but in the very end he fell into the “triangle” and knocked a second before the gong.
Even then, many were quick to label him as a weak-willed fighter, but this was extremely premature.
In the next eight fights, Ankalaev did not just take over, but dominated his rivals, thanks to which he climbed to the fourth line of the division rating.
If we take only performances in the UFC, then in terms of the duration of the winning streak, he surpasses all representatives of the category, including the current champion Jiri Prochazka.
Yes, the Czech won 13 fights in a row, but only three of them took place in the famous octagon.
In most cases, such results would have long since guaranteed the fighter the right to fight for the belt.
For example, the same Prochazka was allowed to fight the champion after two successful fights, Jan Blachowicz - after three, Glover Teixeira needed to win five times in a row, and Dominic Reyes - six.
The more unique case of Ankalaev, because he may not get such an opportunity even after the battle with Anthony Smith.
Not the brightest fighting style of the Russian has been repeatedly discussed, but now the situation in the division is also confused to the limit.
If Teixeira had managed to defend the belt in a fight with Prohazka, then Ankalaev's chances of becoming a contender would have been much higher.
In this case, only Blachowicz, who lost to Teixeira in October, remained among the competitors, but the matchmakers would hardly have allowed him to meet the Brazilian twice in such a short time.
However, Glover not only lost to Jiri, but also did it in one of the most spectacular and dramatic battles of the year.
And the refusal of revenge may seem strange.
“I won’t be surprised if Teixeira is given the title fight.
He lost, but the fight was very spectacular and close.
And the authority of the Brazilian allows him to count on revenge.
It would be logical for him to organize a return fight with Prochazka, ”AMC Fight Nights fighter Alexander Grebnev said in a commentary on RT.
As for Ankalaev, in this case he may well be organized a fight with Blakhovitch himself.
On the one hand, this will not be entirely fair, because White himself assigned the status of an eliminator to their duel with Smith.
True, it was even before the meeting of Teixeira with Prochazka.
On the other hand, in the event of a victory over the Pole, the UFC will have no other options but to finally put the Russian on the first line in the category.
Nevertheless, Ankalaev's chances to earn the right to meet with the champion on Sunday still remain.
But for this he needs not only to get the better of Smith, but to do it in a super-bright manner.
And this seems like a daunting task, since Magomed has only received the award for "Performance of the Night" three times before.
The last time this happened was in October 2020, when he knocked out Ion Kutselaba.
“Something outstanding, incredible must happen.
If Ankalaev knocks out Smith with a pinwheel, takes the microphone and demands a fight for the title, then there is a chance.
But I hardly believe in it.
In my opinion, there are fighters who deserve it a little more than him, ”summed up Grebnev.
As for the battle between Pavlovich and Lewis, it initially promised to be one of the most exciting in the tournament.
Two top strikers meet each other, one of which holds the record for the number of knockout wins in the UFC.
During his career, the American laid his opponents on canvas 13 times, among which were domestic athletes.
Since 2016, he has beaten the Russians every two years.
At first, Shamil Abdurahimov was unlucky, and then Alexander Volkov and Alexei Oleinik repeated his fate.
And in order to break this sad tradition, Pavlovich needs to fight as focused as possible and not allow Lewis to use his main weapon - a furious right hand.
According to Grebnev, this time Sergei should focus on the fight and not succumb to the tricks of the enemy.
“Of course, cutting will be much more profitable for Derrick.
In my opinion, Lewis hits more than Francis Ngannou.
At least that's what Curtis Blades said.
In no case should Pavlovich box with him.
In this case, he will act extremely unreasonably.
I think he needs to fight him, because in this aspect the American is very weak.
He has nothing but knockout power,” said the AMC Fight Nights fighter.
Thus, in the upcoming confrontation, it is important for Pavlovich to clearly follow the battle plan and not make mistakes that prevented his compatriots, for example, Volkov.
He had an almost perfect fight with Lewis, but 11 seconds before the end he forgot about caution and ended up in a deep knockout.
Then Alexander not only failed to extend the unbeaten run, but also lost the opportunity to fight for the belt.
“I think that the right plan for the fight will help Pavlovich to take over.
As an athlete, he is stronger than Lewis - better in wrestling, boxing.
Personally, I really like Derrick.
Given his apparent clumsiness, problems with weight, he remains very mobile and plastic.
But as a fighter, Sergey is better.
It's just that the American has a kind of "death touch".
At the same time, I don’t think that the Russian does not have a knockout blow, ”added Grebnev.
True, Lewis himself is trying to do everything possible to unbalance Pavlovich and make him forget about tactics.
During the media day, the American not only said that he still did not know who his rival was, but then allowed himself an extremely offensive statement.
According to him, people in Russia and Germany are “born with the sign of the swastika”
However, Lewis has previously tried to piss off his opponents, and very successfully.
Recall at least the incident at the weigh-in ceremony before the battle with Volkov.
Then the American first came close to the Russian, and then knocked his hat off his head, which almost provoked a fight.
If Pavlovich manages to enter the cage with a cool head and inflict a second defeat in a row on Lewis, then he may be in the same position as Ankalaev is now.
Not only will he break into the heavyweight top 10, but he'll be one or two wins away from a title fight.
And it can be called one of the fastest ascents to the top.
His debut in the promotion took place only in November 2018 and turned out to be even more discouraging than Magomed's.
Then he was immediately put against Alistair Overeem, who dealt with him in less than five minutes.
“Now Pavlovich has grown stronger, gained experience.
When they immediately gave him Overeem, he was surprised: “Why are you breaking the guy’s career?”
As a result, the Dutchman easily passed him.
But it was logical, I don’t know why his team went for it.
It’s one thing for Yana Kunitskaya, who was told: “If you fight Cris Cyborg, you get $ 1 million and a contract with the UFC.”
I understand Sergey's enthusiasm and his desire to take advantage of his chance.
But if I were his coach, then I wouldn’t let him get close to Alistar, ”concluded Grebnev.