At UFC Vegas 49, Islam Makhachev was to take his final step towards being the first contender for the lightweight belt.
The victory in the battle with third-ranked Beneil Dariush actually guaranteed him the right to fight for the trophy and gave him a chance to repeat the achievement of his teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov.
However, the Iranian-American fighter injured his ankle and was hastily replaced by Bobby Green, a much less status athlete whose peak was in the mid-2010s.
At the end of 2014, Green was considered one of the most promising lightweights in the UFC.
He was on an eight win streak, one of which was over former Strikeforce belt holder Josh Thompson.
After that, Bobby began to pursue failure.
First, he lost to Edson Barbosa, then tore his anterior cruciate ligament, and then lost twice more - to Dustin Poirier and Rashid Magomedov.
On this, the hype around the fighter, nicknamed the King, ended, and over the next years he alternated successful fights with failures.
In recent years, Green has teetered on the verge of being fired - either he suffered a series of defeats, then he suddenly “rises from the ashes” and resembles himself in his best years.
There has been a surge of activity in the last four months as well.
First, the American knocked out Al Iaquinta, the fighter in the battle with whom Nurmagomedov won the lightweight title.
And then, in a stubborn struggle, he defeated the once promising Nasrat Khakparast.
Moreover, the fight with the latter took place only 11 days ago - at the UFC 271 tournament. However, this did not stop him from agreeing to measure his strength with Makhachev five days later.
Green's motivation is easy to understand.
At the moment, he is not among the 15 strongest lightweight fighters and in the near future he would hardly have had the opportunity to fight with an opponent of the level of Makhachev.
In one fell swoop, he can not only make money, but also return to the leading positions in the division, which in the current conditions would be extremely difficult for him to accomplish.
In the category up to 70.3 kilograms, there is huge competition, and it would be extremely difficult for an older athlete, and even with such gaps in technique, to break even into the top ten again.
Bobby, although he can boast of fast hands and unusual striking technique, misses a lot, and is often untenable on the ground.
In the case of Makhachev, the situation is ambiguous.
On the one hand, the willingness to accept a fight on short notice (changing an opponent also brings some discomfort) has always been highly valued by the UFC leadership.
And Dana White will certainly thank Islam for the decision to "save" the show and not leave it without a single star.
Outside of the main event, the Vegas 49 card can hardly be called outstanding.
And the absence of a Russian could seriously affect the ratings.
On the other hand, a victory over Green is not a 100% guarantee that Makhachev will be elevated to the status of the first contender.
Yes, this will allow him to extend his unbeaten streak to ten fights - an achievement that can hardly be ignored.
However, a possible win in the battle with Dariush demonstrated that he was able to take on the strongest opponents, and confirmed his championship ambitions.
Triumph in a duel with Bobby will not give such dividends.
And this is taking into account the fact that the risk is quite high.
In the stalls, Makhachev is completely superior to Green, which is also noted by experts.
Including former middleweight champion Michael Bisping.
But in the rack, everything is not so clear.
Islam's cautious, counter-attacking style may well help him hold off Bobby, but any missed blow can change the balance of power.
In this regard, the fight evokes associations with the battle between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Michael Johnson, a great wrestler and unpredictable striker, who can create problems for anyone due to his quick hands.
For Nurmagomedov, that fight was the penultimate one on the way to winning the trophy and it was not easy.
The American hit and even shook the Russian several times, but later ended up on the ground and looked absolutely helpless.
The eagle tormented him a bit on the canvas before holding a kimura.
In addition, it is difficult to imagine how Makhachev's performance will be affected by the fact that the battle will take place at a catchweight - up to 72.5 kilograms (160 pounds).
As Green himself admitted on The MMA Hour, this was done at his request.
Since the meeting with Hakparast, he managed to gain almost 20 kilograms and refused to drive up to the prescribed limit.
However, there is reason to believe that Bobby will not be limited to two extra pounds, but will appear harder in a cage.
And this can give him superiority in the fight.
Unlike the newly minted rival, Islam planned to fight within the light category, therefore, he systematically prepared the body for the weight race process.
And it may not be possible to immediately roll everything back.
It is also not known how comfortable a Russian feels in conditions when his body weight is more than usual.
For example,
But even if Makhachev copes with all the difficulties that have arisen and confirms his status as a favorite, two can prevent him from getting a fight for the title - Michael Chandler and Conor McGregor.
The first will fight Tony Ferguson in May and, in the event of a bright victory, may return to the championship race.
No, he is unlikely to be immediately given another fight for the trophy, but they can easily bring him to Islam, arranging for him the last test before the duel for the belt.
As for McGregor, the UFC is unlikely to miss the opportunity to once again capitalize on his big name.
Previously, he had already expressed a desire to fight Oliveira for the title, and the champion himself was not opposed.
And this is not surprising, because for a duel with Conor, he can earn more than in the previous five fights.
And if the Irishman really recovers by the summer, then in the fall he can compete for the belt.
And for Makhachev, this will only mean that his campaign for the trophy will stretch at least until the first quarter of 2023.