Before the start of the St. Petersburg national championship, the leaders of the FFKKR managed to announce that all final decisions on the composition of the Olympic team would be made only in mid-January after the European Championship. In fact, the likelihood of any January reshuffles is extremely low for a purely technical reason: mid-January is the very time when all sports must submit their final squad entries to the Beijing Olympic Organizing Committee. That is, if we assume that someone from the list of lucky ones announced on Sunday will fail the European championship, there will be no time left for castling.
Was the decision of the FFKKR fair to replace Andrey Mozalev with Evgeny Semenenko in the male team? At first glance, no. In St. Petersburg, Mozalev became the second in the free program (Semenenko showed the fifth result there), and in the overall standings Andrei was four points ahead of the fourth place. In other words, I honestly earned the right to go to Tallinn, and it would be logical to send him to the European Championship. And after that, in case of failure, to make changes to the Olympic application. The fact that the athlete was removed from the national team already now confirms the version about the impossibility of January replacements and suggests that the federation, announcing the composition, has already made its Olympic choice. It, alas, did not work out in favor of Kirill Davydenko's ward.
On the other hand, the position of the FFKKR can also be understood. In it, in the joking words of the writer Venedikt Erofeev, "there is a whim, an idea, and pathos, and, moreover, there is also a metaphysical hint." Semenenko has very bright, memorable programs this year, he is charismatic, and if Alexei Mishin manages to bring the athlete to peak form in the time remaining before the main starts, all this can play a very powerful chord. Not to mention the fact that if the Russian national team has a divine beginning in the form of the image of Mark Kondratyuk in the free program, there must also be a devilish one - in the form of Woland - Semenenko.
In the other three disciplines, the choice of federation is predictable and understandable. No matter how weak links Evgenia Tarasova and Vladimir Morozov look in pair skating and Anna Shcherbakova in women's singles, there is simply no one to change them for. Even if you take the position that Daria Pavlyuchenko and Denis Khodykin were not lucky in St. can add Tarasova and Morozov.
The situation is similar for women. In St. Petersburg, it was quite obvious that Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (she is still in the status of the first reserve, like Pavlyuchenko - Khodykin) objectively falls out of the leading cage even in the case of perfect execution of all elements. In the same way, Shcherbakova falls out of it. But there are more bonuses on Anna's side: she, like no other skater, is capable of pulling out the program even in the most hopeless situation, and such athletes are not scattered about. Moreover, in the Olympic year.
Oddly enough, the current world champions Sinitsina and Katsalapov are in the most difficult situation.
Having refused to perform in a free dance due to the risk of exacerbating a partner's back injury, the skaters, thereby, opened the green street to Alexandra Stepanova - to Ivan Bukin.
And they took the chance enormously - they skated in such a way that it became clear: there is no tangible difference, judging by the estimates, between the first and second Russian pair.
From the point of view of the Olympic strategy, this plays into the hands of the Russian national team: in dancing, we will almost absolutely have to make a substitution in the Olympic team tournament.
Otherwise, there is a big risk that Katsalapov simply will not stand four starts in a row - his back will not allow.
It is great happiness that the replacement turns out to be equivalent, although a month and a half ago it did not seem so at all.
But from the point of view of personal interests, Sinitsina and Katsalapov have some zugzwang, that is, a situation in which there are no good moves yet.
If they go to Tallinn to defend their title of reigning European champions, then, taking into account the injury of a partner, it is possible that they will be defeated not only by the four-time world champions Gabriela Papadakis and Guillaume Sizeron, but also by their compatriots, who are now on a very high rise and continue to progress. ...
If you take a break and do not go to the European Championship, you will have to go all-in already during the Olympic Games, leaving the international arena for a whole month.
And who knows how many additional bonuses can rivals on both sides of the ocean earn during this time?