After the final is before the final: The one in Rome on Friday is followed by the one in Belfast this Monday.

Even before the game against Switzerland in the domestic Olympic Stadium, the Italian media had been talking about the final for qualifying for the World Cup finals.

A victory over the Swiss would in fact have guaranteed the ticket to Qatar.

But after the arduous 1: 1 against the rebellious Swiss, another final is ahead of the European champions in Belfast Windsor Park, in a sense the final (8.45 p.m. at DAZN).

Against the Northern Irish, the Azzurri need a victory, because everyone expects the Swiss to beat the Bulgarians at the same time on their home turf in Lucerne.

Matthias Rüb

Political correspondent for Italy, the Vatican, Albania and Malta based in Rome.

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And even then, group victory and direct qualification for the Azzurri would only be assured if Italy successfully defended their current lead of two goals in goal difference over Switzerland. But if the Swiss defeat the Bulgarians 3-0 and the Italians only win 1-0 in Belfast, Switzerland would win the group if they were tied on points and goals because of the minimal advantage in a direct comparison. The away goal scored by Swiss Silvan Widmer in Rome on Friday would be the decisive factor because the Italians went goalless in the 0-0 draw in Basel on September 5 on foreign soil.

This is a calculation example that puts every Tifosi in a bad whiplash.

As with qualifying for the 2018 World Cup in Russia, the four-time world champion would have to go to the play-offs again.

And that ended on November 13, 2017 with the "Apocalypse of Milan", when a powerless and unimaginative Squadra Azzurra failed to score a goal against the Swedes, who had won the first leg 1-0 in Stockholm three days earlier.

In 2018, the World Cup finals took place for the first time in 60 years without Italy.

There is fear in Italy

It is no coincidence that the Italian newspapers headlines before the game against Northern Ireland of the “grande paura”, of the “muro irlandese”, the great fear of the Irish wall. Italy have never won three international matches in Northern Ireland. There was a defeat and a draw in 1957, and the last time they met in October 2010, Italy couldn't get past a goalless draw in qualifying for the European Championship. In addition, the Northern Irish have not yet allowed a single goal in their three home games in the current World Cup qualifying round.

Should the double-walled Irish wall withstand the onslaught of the Italians on Monday evening and the Swiss beat the Bulgarians at the same time, then Italy would fear a post-apocalyptic apocalypse: two failures in the play-offs of the World Cup qualification.

This closes the circle of decline, ascent and decline. As is well known, the humiliated Squadra Azzurra came back faster than hoped after the disgrace of the missed World Cup finals in Russia. And at the EM 2020, which was postponed by a year due to the pandemic, she not only conquered the hearts of all European football fans with courageous offensive football, but also won the title with the necessary luck. National coach Roberto Mancini, the father of this resurrection, duly became the national saint: santo subito.

The reasons for the troubles at the level of the World Cup qualification after the summit storm at the EM are quickly told. Especially since young players like goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and the offensive forces Federico Chiesa, Nicolò Barella and Manuel Locatelli see themselves confronted in the club as in the national team with the fact that it is easier to climb a mountain peak carelessly than to preserve the maximum performance afterwards.

In addition, there are injuries to regulars such as captain Giorgio Chiellini, ball distributor Marco Verratti and center forward Ciro Immobile and left-back Leonardo Spinazzola. The multiple workload for the players in their respective national leagues, in UEFA club competitions as well as with the national team in the UEFA Nations League and World Cup qualification takes its toll - if not through injury, then through physical and mental exhaustion.

It is no coincidence that the record series of 37 games without a loss under Mancini with the 1: 2 against Spain in the semi-finals of the Nations League on October 6 in Milan broke.

Since the European Championship, Italy has only achieved two wins in six international matches.

The third must come in Belfast, coach Mancini agrees with his squadra.

And there is also agreement that midfielder Jorginho should not play again for a possible penalty in Belfast: After two consecutive penalties against Switzerland, someone else has to try from the ominous point.