Half of the stages of the Figure Skating Grand Prix series are over.
After the competitions in the USA, Canada and Italy, it is already possible to draw some conclusions and make cautious forecasts for the near future.
For example, will an event unprecedented in history take place - will six Russian figure skaters take part in the final at once.
The main competitions of the first half of the season are held according to a certain scheme - first, athletes participate in separate tournaments, after which the victors are determined by the six best singles and pairs.
There are always a lot of applicants for medals and a solid prize fund; representatives of various countries are fighting for tickets.
The Grand Prix Final differs from other major tournaments in that it has no national quotas.
No matter how many top-level masters there are in one country, only three can go to the World Championships and the Olympic Games.
But there were no restrictions in the series, and theoretically, as many compatriots as they wanted could get into the top six.
True, so far, at best, four athletes have been selected for the final. In men's single skating, this happened twice: in 1998, four Russians performed simultaneously (Alexey Yagudin, Alexey Urmanov, Evgeni Plushenko and Alexander Abt), in 2012 - four Japanese at once. For women, this record was repeated only by Russians, and five times. This happened for the first time in 1999, and then, with the beginning of their dominance in the international arena, it was repeated in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2019.
Even before the start of the season, suggestions began to appear that Russian figure skaters would clearly not be limited to four quotas. Yesterday's juniors came up to the already experienced and well-formed athletes. When the International Skating Union distributed vouchers to the Grand Prix stages, eight Russian women received two appointments at once, necessary for selection to the final. However, only half of them have already performed in the series.
After the first three stages, the plans of the Russian figure skaters began to come true.
First, Alexandra Trusova and Daria Usacheva took the first two places in Las Vegas.
A week later, Kamila Valieva, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva and Alena Kostornaya occupied the podium in Vancouver.
Then Anna Shcherbakova and Maya Khromykh took gold and silver in Turin.
If it were not for the Japanese Mai Mihara, who managed to perform at two stages, then at once six Russians would now lead in the overall standings.
In addition to the fact that domestic girls perform well themselves, their two main competitors - Rika Kihira and Brady Tennell - have deprived themselves of chances ahead of schedule.
Both competed in the Grand Prix finals two years ago, but have now been forced to withdraw due to injuries.
Not taking part in the North American stages, the Japanese woman and the American woman automatically dropped out of the fight.
True, in recent days, the likelihood that the final will turn into a rehearsal for the Russian championship has noticeably decreased.
Already when Trusova performed in the United States, it was known that health problems had not spared her either.
The student Eteri Tutberidze won, but the question of her trip to Japan hung in the air.
As a result, the 17-year-old skater withdrew, and she will not be able to perform at one of the remaining stages due to the rigid format of the competition.
After that, seven Russians remained in the fight for getting into the Grand Prix finals, and the conditions for six of them to still qualify were tightened.
First of all, this concerns Daria Usacheva, who alone will represent Russia in Tokyo this week.
It is desirable for her to take at least the second place, but first of all it is necessary to perform better than the Korean Yoo Yeon.
In Las Vegas, they already competed with each other, and then the Russian woman won only 0.34 points in the dispute for silver. Yoo Yeon is capable of performing a triple axel, and if she performs this element, then it will be extremely difficult for Usacheva to adequately respond. In case of victory, the Korean figure skater will bypass both Tutberidze's ward and Ksenia Sinitsyna, who took only fifth place in the United States.
In a week, Kostornaya, Shcherbakova and Sinitsyna will perform in France. If Yoo Yeon takes a place below the second, then all three Russians will have a chance to qualify. Sinitsina, however, for this it is imperative to become the best, which is hard to believe. Much more realistic is the scenario in which the first two places will be played by Shcherbakova and Kostornaya. If it comes to fruition, both will be able to book tickets to Osaka for the finals. Perhaps the only one who can stop them will be the Japanese woman Wakaba Higuchi. This season she mastered the triple axel, and this is not good news for Kostornaya.
The last opportunity to qualify will be provided by the Russian stage of the Grand Prix.
Khromykh, Valieva and Tuktamysheva will perform in Sochi.
There can be only two reasons why one of them will not achieve their goal: injury or disaster during the performance.
None of their rivals will perform ultra-si elements, so even with one or two falls, all three will score the necessary points.
As a result, it turns out that the transformation of the Grand Prix finals into an all-Russian competition depends mainly on the successful performance of Daria Usacheva.
But even if she becomes the second after Yoo Yeon, which will be a great success, most likely, five domestic skaters will pass the selection.
By doing so, they will establish a historic achievement that can be improved later.