Increased competition, revenue growth and a historic chance: what the head of Hypercube said about the reform of Russian football

At the end of August, a truly important event took place in Russian sports.

The head of the research and consulting company Hypercube, Peter Newvenhays, flew to Moscow, who is called upon to radically reform the entire Russian football.

On Tuesday, he held his first meeting with representatives of RPL clubs, which dragged on for several hours.

As a result of the event, no decisions were made, however, the head of the league, Sergei Pryadkin, announced the readiness of all RPL members to carry out reforms.

At the same time, Hypercube was proposed to finalize the proposed format of the Jupiter-16 tournament by October 4, taking into account the objections raised.

Also instructed to create a working group, which will have to provide alternative options "taking into account the observance of a level playing field for the clubs-members of the league."

After a difficult meeting, Newvenhays arrived at the RFU building to personally tell reporters about the results of the negotiations. The press conference began with the Dutch specialist once again describing in detail all the advantages of the Jupiter-16 system: an increase in the number of competitive matches, an increase in the level of football players, a sharp increase in income and attendance, and so on. Of those factors that the head of Hypercube did not voice earlier, the only thing that attracts attention is the radical revision of the cost of the RPL TV rights. The expert believes that they are significantly underestimated.

“Now their cost is 1 billion 700 million rubles. RPL was in talks with several players in the Russian media market. At the same time, Nielsen conducted research and gave its opinion on the league. They estimated the fair price at 6 billion 150 million. We believe that with Jupiter-16 it could reach 10 billion 180 million ... Can you ask where such a large increase comes from? Suppose you are a TV company and receive a conditionally 100 rubles from the sale. Of these, 80 are costs and 20 are profits. Due to the transition to the new format, the number of viewers will grow by 25-50%. And the TV profit is much higher, because the costs will remain the same, ”Newvenhuis emphasized.

He called the meeting itself “difficult”. According to the Dutchman, the meeting turned out to be very emotional. The specialist did not hide the fact that many clubs were critical of Hypercube's proposals. Newvenhays considered this reaction absolutely normal and attributed it to a lack of proper communication, since this meeting was the first in which all interested parties took part.

“I understand people perfectly. It is difficult for them to take on faith what we are talking about. I also need to learn to listen to them, because there are certain doubts and fears. We need to build a dialogue. I have implemented 20 projects of this kind, and what I saw today at the RPL meeting is a typical situation. Not everyone agrees at first. There is nothing wrong with that. Time needs to pass. The main good news is that we have the opportunity to once again communicate with the clubs and, possibly, convince them, ”the expert emphasized.

He also reaffirmed what most fans had guessed and so - most of the big clubs are in favor of change. But the middle peasants and outsiders oppose them. The main reason is a decrease in the number of meetings with strong rivals, including at home, which help to earn serious money on ticket sales. Newvenhays assured that such fights, on the contrary, will only increase in the future, and also pointed out other advantages of the reform for small clubs.

“We predicted ten thousand times how events would develop based on mathematical calculations.

So, even in the conditional “Nizhny Novgorod” the number of matches with the giants will grow, if we take a period of ten years.

When switching to Jupiter-16, the total amount of income will also skyrocket.

The clubs at the bottom of the table will receive a larger share of the larger pie.

As Johan Cruyff said, any flaw has a serious advantage.

RPL receives little money from television.

But with such a low starting base, there is great potential for growth, ”said the head of Hypercube.

According to him, many teams have expressed their readiness to agree to any reforms if they see real money.

However, the Dutchman believes that it is impossible to attract investments without changing the format.

“He offered to invite heads of media companies and announce the amounts that they are willing to pay for Jupiter-16 and the previous format of the tournament.

I am sure the numbers will vary significantly.

A case in point: Belgium's GDP is three times less than that of Russia.

But when they switched to a new format, the cost of TV rights tripled: from € 35 million to € 105 million, ”the specialist said.

Once again, he spoke on the topic of the limit on legionnaires and urged to completely cancel it in the near future.

Otherwise, the results of Russian teams in European competitions can only worsen, the Dutchman believes.

At the same time, he did not see anything wrong with the proposal to introduce the opportunity to buy out the "legionnaire's quota".

“If today it is not possible to form strong teams from Russians, then it is necessary to allow to take foreigners. My position is that the limit must be canceled. But clubs that rely on legionnaires should contribute to the development of young guys. A kind of "luxury tax" should be introduced. This is not our invention. This is what the leading American leagues in various sports do, ”Newvenhays recalled.

During a conversation with journalists, the Dutchman said that the reforms are a unique chance for Russia to raise the quality of football in the country to a new level. The head of Hypercube showed the audience a slide with the RPL decline curve in the UEFA coefficient table. According to his forecasts, in the near future the domestic league may lose its place not only in the top 10, but also in the top 15, which will lead to a significant decrease in income from performing in European competitions. At the same time, “the country has everything to be one of the ten leading football powers in Europe,” the specialist emphasized.

“Reforms are needed, as the performance indicators of Russian teams are deteriorating. I understand that even if we implement them now, it will take time. On the other hand, it is quite realistic that Russia will be eliminated from the top 15 of the UEFA table of coefficients, and the national team will not perform very well at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Then the leaders of the national football will have to answer. I think there is every reason to try and take the risk, ”said the Dutchman.

At this point, a reasonable question arose: why the strongest leagues in Europe do not agree to such changes, but continue to hold the usual "smooth" championship, while mixed formats are mainly accepted in the middle championships of the continent: Belgium, Austria, Scotland, Denmark and so on. Newvenhays attributed this to an excessively busy calendar in the top leagues and countered that the Champions League would soon switch to a scheme similar to Jupiter-16.

“I think that since UEFA has decided on such reforms, there is reason to think about it, because you will not find a more conservative organization in the world.

A scenario is quite possible in which more and more countries will switch to such a system.

Russia has the opportunity to become the first.

Others will surely follow.

The World Cup is coming in Qatar, which will knock out a large chunk of the calendar.

Thanks to Jupiter-16, there is just a chance to play not 24 rounds in the first part, but 20. This will give the team an opportunity to better prepare, ”the expert noted.

“There is a certain risk in taking the first step and introducing changes.

But look where Russian football is today ... There is not much to lose.

There is every reason to try and create something new, ”he added.

In conclusion, Newvenhays reacted positively to Pryadkin's words about the readiness of RPL clubs to carry out reforms and the desire to soften the limit on legionnaires.

“I am glad that we will collectively work on the issue.

A group is being created in which we can work together.

We do not want to impose the Jupiter-16 format at any cost, but we are interested in finding an optimal solution and are open for dialogue, "the specialist suggested.