The protracted perestroika: why Vitoria should not be fired from Spartak even in the event of a defeat at Sochi

“Spartak” is clearly not in the best condition for the last round of the Russian football championship before the pause for the national teams' games. The team has only seven points to its credit and occupies only ninth place in the standings, five points behind the leader - Dynamo. And although her problems are based on a number of objective factors, many blame only one person for the failures of the team - the new head coach Rui Vitoria. And it is not excluded that the Portuguese will leave his post after the match with Sochi.

From the point of view of the result, the initial stage of Vitoria's reign at Spartak can hardly be called successful. The vice-champion of Russia was unable to compete with the former Portuguese team - Benfica - in the Champions League qualification, losing with a total score of 0: 4, and at the same time allowed misfires in the RPL. In five rounds, the red and white won only two victories, and this despite the fact that at the start of the season they met only once with an opponent of about their own level. We are talking about Rubin, whom they lost with a minimum score in the opening round. As a result, only the Premier League debutant Wings of the Soviets and the Ural, which is going through a deep crisis, managed to gain the upper hand. In the confrontation with Tula "Arsenal" there was a draw, and in the meeting with "Nizhny Novgorod" - a sensational defeat.

On the one hand, Spartak's failures at the start of the season are quite understandable. In the offseason, the team went through a change of coach and was forced to adapt to new requirements. The differences turned out to be radical in many ways. Vitoria changed the alignment according to which Muscovites have acted over the past one and a half seasons. Instead of the usual formation with three central defenders, a more classic formation with two defensive players in the center was chosen. In such conditions, some time for adaptation is required even for such experienced performers as Georgy Dzhikia and Samuel Zhigot.

This also led to a change in the offensive play model.

Although Spartak is still trying to use the free zones and not miss the chances to carry out a counterattack, they began to act more horizontally, trying to control the ball in the other side of the field.

Building a combinational game takes a lot of time and it is obvious that while the red and white are very far from perfect in this aspect.

All this was overlaid with personnel problems, which also largely limited the capabilities of both Spartak in general and Vitoria in particular.

If we take exclusively field footballers, then at the moment Pavel Maslov, who played the role of the right central defender in the three-player system, as well as Georgy Melkadze, Victor Moses and Quincy Promes are in the infirmary.

The latter two are among the leaders of the team and would clearly add some creativity to the front.

And this is not counting external factors, such as the unhealthy atmosphere around the club, largely created by the wife of its owner - Zarema Salikhova, difficult negotiations on the extension of contracts with leaders, as well as the possible departure of Gigot. It has long been known about the desire of the defender to return to his homeland and be closer to his son, who is currently living with his mother.

It should be noted that even in these conditions, Spartak was not so bad in terms of the game. If we take into account the key indicators, then according to them, Muscovites are in the group of leaders of the RPL. So, in terms of expected goals against someone else's goal, they occupy the fourth place (7.21), behind only Krasnodar, Dynamo and Zenit, and in their own - the last, 16th (2.23). The problem is that their opponents used not even the most obvious moments, while Alexander Sobolev and the company experienced serious problems with implementation. As a result, the difference between goals scored and conceded is 4: 4.

Undoubtedly, Vitoria can be reproached for the fact that under his leadership the team plays rather unsuccessfully at the set standards, as evidenced by the accurate shots of Arsenal and Nizhny Novgorod. But in the remaining goals, the key factors were either the individual mistakes of the players, or the luck of the opponents. Ilya Samoshnikov's ball in the first round was scored thanks to an incredible hit in the near nine, and Alexei Kozlov in the third - due to the inconsistency of Alex Kral, Ayrton and Zhigo. As a result of a series of unsuccessful actions, the former defender of the Russian national team was left without cover and irresistibly struck his head.

Leaving aside the individual oversights of both forwards and defenders, Vitoria's men are good in many other ways. So, they still put great pressure and take the second place in PPDA - the number of passes that the opponent managed to make up to the loss of the ball. For "Spartak" it is 8.31, and only Krasnodar is better - 7.65. All this indicates that after the departure of Domenico Tedesco, Muscovites have not become a less modern collective and are still trying to meet European standards. Yes, it seems difficult to reach the level of the conditional Leeds (6.54) or Betis (5.19), but at the RPL level such figures look impressive.

In this regard, the logical question will be: why Spartak can think about dismissing Vitoria? As history shows, in the course of the season, the expected and real indicators of goals scored and conceded are usually equalized, therefore, the team that is clearly lower than expected should soon begin to gain the points that belong to it. Experiencing obvious problems with implementation, Alexander Sobolev and Jordan Larsson will get in shape and again begin to score with their usual consistency, and opponents will stop using every half-moment, which will instantly affect the set of points. But the problem is that the leadership of the ten-time champion of Russia has never been patient, and there is no reason to hope for positive changes.

And such a development of events seems especially likely in the conditions of the atmosphere that has reigned in "Spartak" over the past months. Yes, the closure of Zarema Salikhova's Telegram channel slightly eased the pressure on the players and the team's coaching staff, but there is no reason to believe that criticism of Vitoria is not voiced directly to Fedun. His wife did not initially support this candidacy and it is possible that a series of failures of the Portuguese only made her become more active.

Fedun's impulsiveness has been talked about for a long time, but in conditions when Salikhova is also opposed to the mentor, Vitoria's dismissal can occur at any time. And it is possible that the reason for this could be a possible defeat in the match against Sochi - the second serious opponent of Spartak this season. In fact, this meeting should show whether the Portuguese coach's ideas can work against stronger opponents than Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod, or this time he risks losing both in terms of score and game.

From a strategic point of view, even a failure in the sixth round will not mean the collapse of the Muscovites' hopes for a successful performance in the championship. Yes, the gap from the conditional Dynamo runs the risk of growing to eight points, but it is unlikely that such a handicap cannot be won back in the remaining 24 meetings. Suffice it to recall how stormy Lokomotiv was last season. After the same six meetings, he had only six points in the asset and was in eighth, and after the first round he was eight behind the leader. However, this did not prevent Marko Nikolic from retaining his position, and in the spring to help the wards organize a spurt and win not only bronze, but also the Cup of Russia.

But Vitoria is in a more difficult situation. This is due to both the high expectations and impulsiveness of the management, and the fact that the last time Spartak lost half of the starting six matches of the championship 11 years ago. In the 2010/11 season, the red and white under the leadership of Valery Karpin lost to Rostov (0: 4), Kuban (1: 3) and Anji (1: 2), and in the end finished only fourth, lagging behind Zenit is almost 20 points (49 - 68). But it is unlikely that the Portuguese was given the same credit of trust as one of the most famous players of the club of the 1990s, who combined the posts of head coach and general director.

The fact that the matches of the national teams will take place immediately after the match against Sochi is also unfavorable. In case of defeat, Vitoria will simply not have the opportunity to rehabilitate in the shortest possible time, but the management will have enough time to think about his professional suitability. And against the backdrop of negative emotions, a rather illogical decision can be made.