The moment of truth: why Nikolic's work at Lokomotiv should be assessed after the games against Zenit and Dynamo

Three rounds before the end of the Russian football championship, Lokomotiv can be safely called the main discovery of the second part of the season. For the winter break, the team went eighth, and its lag from the second place giving a ticket to the Champions League was nine points. However, from February to April, the railway workers won victories in all eight matches and not only bypassed direct competitors for a ticket to the main European Cup, but also practically guaranteed themselves the unofficial title of the winner of the spring segment of the championship. Marko Nikolic's charges have 24 points, six more than their closest pursuer (Rubin).

Moreover, even the fight on two fronts does not prevent Lokomotiv from showing such results. Yes, in the spring part, Russian teams do not have to complain about the schedule, but the fact of additional workload should still be taken into account. Nevertheless, the railway workers not only dominated the championship, but also reached the final of the Russian Cup. Moreover, the only thing that can be called a checkpoint is the meeting with Tambov in the quarterfinals. In the remaining games, Sochi and CSKA were defeated - representatives of the top 6 and contenders for the RPL medals.

Against the background of successful performances, the opinion of fans and experts about the mentor of the red-greens has radically changed. If in December Nikolic had to answer questions about his resignation during press conferences, recently the specialist has received only compliments. This is confirmed by two consecutive awards for the best coach of the month in the RPL. And it's hard to argue with that. Only Leonid Slutsky and Igor Cherevchenko can compete with him, but the Serb's indicators are too impressive.

However, it should be noted that Lokomotiv's results are largely due not so much to high-quality play as to phenomenal implementation. So, in the second part of the season, the railroad workers scored 22 goals - the best result in the league on a par with Zenit. But at the same time, in terms of expected goals (xG), they occupy only seventh place (11.56), yielding not only to the representatives of the leading six, but also to Krasnodar, which is in crisis. The situation is similar with the conceded balls. In the last eight rounds, the red-greens conceded only four times (4.93 less than the predicted xGA), which speaks of the excellent form of Marinato Guilherme.

Recently, such a difference between the number of expected and real goals is usually denoted by the term overperformance (performance higher than expected). A great example of such a team recently served as Atletico Madrid. Until February, Diego Simeone's wards used almost every half-moment and, by a large margin, led the standings of the Spanish championship. So, after the 21st round, “mattress” had 39 goals scored and ten conceded goals in their track record, while xG and xGA were 26.6 and 13.9, respectively.

To summarize: it is almost impossible to achieve such a difference without the fantastic shape of the attackers and some luck.

And if you look at the matches with the participation of Lokomotiv, all this is in abundance.

Suffice it to recall every effective shot by Grzegorz Krychowiak, Fedor Smolov's first goal against Arsenal and a penalty shot in the derby with Spartak, as well as Vitaly Lisakovich's masterpiece in the game with Rotor.

Almost each of these episodes hardly claimed the title of "clear scoring chance", but the ball ended up in the net.

Undoubtedly, all this does not sweep aside the merits of Nikolic at the head of Lokomotiv.

After an indistinct performance in the first half of the season, many expected that it would be difficult for the red-greens to compete even for getting into the European cups.

But the mentor managed to motivate his charges and set them up to continue the struggle for awards.

At the same time, the Serbian specialist showed himself not only as an excellent psychologist, but also as a tactician.

Under him, the team began to play modern football with a bet on counterpressing, and in the spring it became one of the best in this aspect.

If we take into account only the last two months, then the railroad workers rank second in the league in terms of PPDA (the average number of passes an opponent makes before losing the ball), behind only Spartak (6.65 and 6.55, respectively).

If only for this reason, Lokomotiv's successes cannot be attributed solely to luck and the achievements of Nikolic at the head of the team cannot be underestimated. The Serb turned out to be a much more skilled coach than many initially thought, and earned the right to be considered one of the strongest in the RPL. However, the results of the matches of the 28th and 29th rounds of the RPL may well adjust the assessment of his work in the 2020/21 season.

It so happened that meetings with Zenit, Dynamo and Ural will be decisive for Nikolic this season. It's a shame, but eight victories in a row only helped Lokomotiv to get out of a difficult situation and return to the fight for silver, but did not guarantee it. Spartak is just two points behind and is not only in high spirits after the triumph in the derby with CSKA, but also has a much less complicated calendar. For comparison: the red-and-white are waiting for matches with Arsenal, Khimki and Akhmat - an order of magnitude less serious opponents.

Thus, to keep the second place, Lokomotiv may need to score seven points in the remaining rounds. And in the 28th he needs to at least play a draw with Zenit, which seems to be a very difficult task even taking into account the current form of Muscovites and the difficulties of Petersburgers. Sergei Semak's wards, although they have five victories in the last six meetings, they beat outsiders - CSKA and Sochi, which are in crisis. At the same time, the game against Krasnodar could well have ended in defeat, if not for the gross mistake of Matvey Safonov at the exit.

It is worth noting that the railwaymen themselves have been quite successfully competing with Petersburgers in recent years.

At the moment, the unbeaten run in the RPL has already four matches, one of which ended in favor of the red-greens.

In September 2019, Lokomotiv won 1-0 at home (the only goal was scored by Krykhovyak).

True, it cannot be attributed to Nikolic's merits, because then the team was led by Yuri Semin.

In this regard, it will be extremely interesting to observe how Lokomotiv will appear in the match against the reigning champion of the country.

Will Nikolic decide to stick to his own style and put high pressure on the opponent or play it safe and play defensively.

It is also interesting to see if the railway contractors will be able to demonstrate equally impressive performance in terms of implementation.

Even if Lokomotiv succeeds in not losing to Zenit for the fifth time in a row, then in the next round they will face an equally serious test.

Moreover, the red-greens will be pressured not only by the fiasco in the previous match with Dynamo (1: 5), but also by the fact that the meeting will be held in Khimki, and not at the Russian Railways Arena.

The club was punished by playing one championship game on a neutral field following the results of the confrontation with Spartak.

It is difficult to say whether the loss of the home stadium advantage will be an important factor in the Moscow derby.

But it is clear that Lokomotiv's task, albeit a little, is getting more complicated.

And the more honorable it will be for him to come out the winner in this case.

If the red-greens still manage to keep the second place and finish in the Champions League zone, then this season can be safely considered successful, and Nikolic - one of the strongest RPL coaches.