Three boats at the start of the Vendée Globe, in Les Sables d'Olonne on November 8, 2020. -

Sebastien SALOM-GOMIS / SIPA

  • The Vendée Globe will soon be over, with an estimated finish on Wednesday afternoon in Les Sables-d'Olonne

  • Many skippers will be arriving in a very short time, which promises great suspense

  • The risk is also that the third or fourth at the finish wins the race thanks to the bonuses

For the past few days, we've only been talking about a skipper in the Vendée Globe.

Charlie Dalin?

No.

Louis Burton then?

No more.

Boris Herrmann?

!

Nein.

The current sailor is called Yoann Richomme and he has his feet on the ground for the moment, behind his computer.

Thanks to several weather files, the (double) winner of the Solitaire du Figaro and the Route du Rhum performs various routing calculations at the end of the Vendée Globe which make it possible to give estimates of arrival times.

And all those who have taken a passion for this hallucinating end of race feverishly await each of its updates.

In the last, dating from this Monday morning, he planned a Wednesday arrival for Charlie Dalin, first to cross the Sables d'Olonne line, between 4:30 p.m. and 9:30 p.m.

Louis Burton would finish barely 1h10 behind him, Boris Hermann at 2:21 am, Thomas Rouillard at 4:48 am and Yannick Bestaven at 5:54 am.

More than tiny gaps after three months of racing.

"These calculations include a part of theory, he adds," the weather conditions must be exactly the same as in reality, which is never the case.

And there may be errors on the boats.

So there are still unknowns beyond this calculation, but on their boat, the skippers do the same calculation.

"

Screenshot of Yoann Richomme's forecasts - Twitter Yoann Richomme

Which roughly means to say that except for damage, we are heading straight for a final sprint scenario with boats almost in the same image at the photo-finish.

“It's quite possible, and that's what will be great, continues Richomme.

We are going to witness a real race finish, with a lot of suspense.

“All the more so as Richomme is planning, for the day of Tuesday, a“ compression of the fleet ”because of a fairly slow day, which would therefore tend to bring the leaders even closer.

And if they all arrive in the same half-day - or half-night, it's up to you - the question of bonuses will play a major role.

To put it clearly, the scenario where the Vendée Globe winner is not the one to cross the line first is almost inevitable.

As a reminder, Boris Herrmann will benefit from a 6-hour sentence reduction on arrival for having diverted his boat during the rescue of Kevin Escoffier, Yannick Bestaven from 10 hours.

Thus, if Richomme's routing were precise to the nearest second, the current fourth Yannick Bestaven would finish 5h54 after Dalin, but would win the Vendée Globe thanks to the bonus ahead of Boris Herrmann, himself third in the last score.

“I'm pretty sure it's going to end like this,” says Richomme.

Unfortunately, the bonuses will play a major role even if they are justified.

That the victory is played between the 3rd and the 5th, it's crazy, almost inconceivable.

It will be an imperfect scenario.

There may be two classifications, a moral winner and a technical winner in corrected time.

It's like that, it's not very serious.

We run with rules that everyone has accepted before leaving.

“Even if none of them had planned a sprint at the finish.

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