Over the next few days, one of the most discussed topics in the world of mixed martial arts promises to be the choice of the next opponent for the newly-minted UFC bantamweight champion Peter Ian. On the “Fight Island”, the Russian crushed the legendary Jose Aldo and became the most desired opponent for the strongest representatives of his division. At the same time, three athletes stand out in the long list of possible candidates, between whom, obviously, the promotion match makers have to make a choice.
Of course, among the stars of the category up to 66 kilograms, it is especially worth noting Marlon Moraes and Aljamain Sterling. The Brazilian and the American occupy a leading position in the ranking of the Absolute Fighting Championship and have at least one victory, if not a series, in the last fights. At the moment, there are no Aldo caliber fighters left in the division who can seriously count on a fight for the title, having one or more defeats in the passive. Therefore, the dispute will obviously go between those who have been successful lately.
On the one hand, Moraes is spoken of as a higher place in the ranking, and the fact that he already had a duel with Ian. They were supposed to fight at the first ever UFC show in Kazakhstan, but because of the pandemic, plans were not destined to come true. In this regard, it was the Latin American who was considered the main candidate for a place in the title battle at the 251st tournament, which ultimately went to the more eminent Aldo. But even now, Marlon’s position does not look strong.
Firstly, the point is an ambiguous victory over Aldo in December 2019. Then two of the three judges preferred Moraes, but not only a number of fans and experts did not agree with this, but also UFC President Dana White. In many ways, this was the reason for the decision to give the chance to fight for the title not to the nominal triumph of that duel, but to Jose. Although it cannot be denied that the great desire at that time, champion Henry Sehudo and the commercial potential of the fight, also played a big role in this. Nevertheless, if the leadership of the championship is really sure that Marlon lost that time, then in his track record there are two failures in a row. And this is clearly not the best base for demanding a battle for the trophy.
Secondly, Moraes was considered as a rival to Jan even before the Russian was named the main contender. But now we can assume that the matchmakers considered him to be the last test, rather than a full-fledged opponent in the battle for this status. Therefore, White no doubt called Peter the main applicant for the belt, but did not even remember Marlon. As a result, the Siberian took his chance and in a dominant style figured out Aldo, which proved himself even more.
In this regard, the first applicant can be called Sterling. A series of five victories speaks for him, four of which were won over representatives of the top 10 bantamweight. Among the defeated are Cody Stamen, Pedro Munoz and Corey Sandhagen, who had never been inferior to the UFC. However, only 88 seconds were enough for Aljamain to “strangle” him and identify claims to the championship.
Apparently, Sterling himself is well aware that there are no more worthy opponents for Jan in the promotion, so he is actively fueling interest in a possible fight. On his Twitter page, the American urged White to give him a fight in his belt and even compared himself to Khabib Nurmagomedov.
“There's nothing to think about, Dana White. I am next in line. Deserved my title duel. It is time for me to fulfill a dream. Enough games ... Sandhagen had a more impressive resume than Ian. And I won the debut. What else do I need to do? Seriously, I'm starting to feel like the most hated guy in the UFC leadership. What have I done wrong? It must be that I am also good at grappling like the king of a division up to 70 kilograms. That makes sense, ”Sterling said.
Of course, the American has excellent skills in the stalls, thanks to which he became famous in mixed martial arts, but he should not compare himself with the Russian. In the struggle, Habib is noticeably superior to him, which is confirmed by statistics. Thus, the Russian holds the UFC record for the number of takedowns per battle (21), and also enters the top 3 in terms of time and percentage of control over opponents, as well as the length of time in the dominant position on the ground.
Algemein, though, takes the third place in terms of control time, but at the same time he is not among the top ten in terms of percentage. The same applies to staying in a dominant position, where he is on the sixth line. Sterling takes quantity, not quality, which perfectly illustrates his record. Unlike Nurmagomedov, in his liability three defeats appear, and not only from the stars of the division. So, in addition to Moraes and Rafael Assunsao, he lost to the middle peasant Brian Caraway. And he surpassed him in the fight, six times transferring to the floor.
Of course, this is not a reason not to give Sterling the right to fight Ian. Five consecutive wins is more than enough to claim a belt fight. Especially when none of the top ten representatives can boast of such. But to exaggerate the power of Aljamain is not worth it. Over his career, he has repeatedly selected the status of the first number, but in the end he was inferior to more skilled craftsmen.
In addition to Sterling, another UFC star is trying to secure a battle for the belt through activity on social networks. We are talking about Cody Garbrandt, who hastened to challenge Jan at the end of the Fight Island tournament. So, the former champion said that in the first two rounds he would break the body of a Russian, and in the third - his spirit.
It is worth noting that Garbrandt is indeed a very bright drummer and can be considered one of the fastest fighters, if not in the history of mixed martial arts, then at least in the UFC. But earlier, he had already repeatedly demonstrated that the unique speed of the arms and legs is adjacent to the inability to act in critical situations.
Caught in a knockdown, Cody continued to move forward and arranged cutting with his rivals, which ended in severe knockouts three times. Two consecutive defeats by TJ Dillashaw and a loss to Pedro Munoz almost put an end to his career, but the athlete managed to return. In June, he sent Assunsao onto the flooring and returned to the top five.
Ian’s battle with Garbrandt would surely be an adornment of any UFC tournament and could well give the audience a candidate for “Fight of the Year”, but the ex-champion clearly does not deserve such an honor. So far, he has closed only one of the three defeats and must conduct at least one fight in order to be considered a full-fledged challenger again.
Even if the promotion again decides to be guided not by sports, but by commercial principles, now the choice will still not be in Cody's favor. The organization probably understands that in the future, from this battle, you can get much more serious dividends if you properly bring both opponents to it. And for this, the American needs to get the upper hand again - either over Moraes or over Sandhagen.
The same can be said about the possible battle of Jan with Sehudo. Not many believed that the Olympic champion in Beijing finally hung his gloves on a nail, so they hope to see the confrontation between the Russian boxer and the American fighter. But even if Henry really decides to return, now is clearly not the best time.
Both the UFC and Sehudo themselves understand that this duel has the potential to become one of the most high-profile in the history of the division. But now it can’t be sold at the maximum price. At the moment, Jan lacks a couple of high-profile and spectacular triumphs to fully be considered a promotion superstar and match a possible counterpart. The victory over the legendary Aldo seriously raised his quotes, but so far this is not enough. For comparison, among the “victims” of Henry are the championship champion in the number of belt defenses Demetrius Johnson, TJ Dillashaw and Dominic Cruz.
The problem is that so far there are practically no rivals on the horizon who can help Jan raise his status so much. Moraes, Sterling and Garbrandt, although they are strong fighters, but only one of them was once considered a superstar. To prevail over any of them is a serious achievement for a fan of MMA, but this event will not cause such a resonance among the general public. Like Habib, Peter needs his Conor McGregor, a duel with which can make people talk about him.
So for him can become the same Sehudo, and Dillashaw. But if the return of the first remains in doubt and seems unlikely, the second should resume his career very soon. At the beginning of 2021, TJ expires in disqualification for the use of illegal drugs, which will allow him to fight again in the UFC. As the athlete himself admitted, the promotion bosses promised to immediately give him a fight for the title.
But given that Ian will probably want to return to the cage before the end of 2020, Dillashaw is unlikely to be his next opponent. Over the past two years, the Russian fought at least three fights per year, so it is unlikely to decide to take a long pause. Now most likely he sees his return in November-December.