Two title fights, the battle of the knockouts and the battle of the kings of ju-jitsu: why UFC 249 will go down in history without Nurmagomedov

Tony Ferguson - Justin Gagey

UFC interim lightweight title fight

The main fight of the UFC 249 tournament promises to be one of the most spectacular in 2020 and may well be swung at the title of “Fight of the Year”. Ferguson and Gatzy are bright drummers and love to arrange uncompromising cutting in the cage. It’s enough to recall Tony’s meetings with Anthony Pettis and Lando Vannata, as well as Justin - with Dustin Porier and Michael Johnson. Even the president of the Absolute Fighting Championship, Dana White, has no doubt that his compatriots will give heat and delight fans during the coronavirus pandemic.

In addition, the excitement around the fight only reinforces the fact that his triumph will become Khabib Nurmagomedov’s next rival. The Russian champion was unable to appear on the show, but is ready to hold the third title defense in July. In the UFC, Habib only fought in the summer, in connection with which such statements speak of his increased motivation. The situation with the refusal to speak out caused a flurry of criticism of him, so it is not surprising that the athlete hopes to silence the ill-wishers as soon as possible.

The favorite of the duel for the interim title is Ferguson. They say in his favor both a series of 12 consecutive victories and a full-fledged training camp. Yes, the transfer of UFC 249 for three weeks went to the advantage of Gatgy - after all, he was able to at least get a little prepared, but he hardly changed the balance of power. Tony must be in good shape, which can be one of the decisive factors.

With current baseline data, there are doubts that Justin will be able to take full advantage of wrestling skills that require perfect physical fitness. Perhaps he will manage to transfer Tony to canvas, but whether he can keep him there is a big question. If not, the underdog will have to rely on a crushing blow from the right, which brought him more than one victory. Given the fact that Ferguson cannot be called the most persistent athlete, Gathey could well inflict his first knockout defeat.

Against Tony speak also his not the hardest jaw and age. Representatives of light weight categories rarely remain successful after reaching 30 years, which is confirmed by the examples of BJ Penna, Eddie Alvarez and Jose Aldo. So far, Ferguson manages to remain the exception to the rule, but the unexpected powerful blow of Gathey could well put an end to this. Nevertheless, in his arsenal there are enough tricks to exhaust vis-a-vis and gain the upper hand in the late rounds. If El Kukuy holds the starting pressure, he will win the 13th victory and become the first two-time interim champion in UFC history.

Henry Sehudo - Dominic Cruz

The battle for the title UFC bantamweight

In the second most important match of UFC 249, the representatives of the bantamweight will converge - the current title holder Henry Sehudo and two-time champion Dominic Cruz. On paper, it is this battle that can be considered the loudest and most expected at the tournament, if not one but. The case is in the applicant who last appeared in the octagon in December 2016.

In general, the selection of rivals for the next defense Sehudo was more like a farce. Initially, he was named ex-featherweight champion Jose Aldo, who had a series of two consecutive defeats in the passive. And this despite the fact that the Russian Peter Peter Jan and the Brazilian Marlon Moraes were ready to enter the cage. And after Aldo was forced to withdraw, his place was taken by Cruz. Yes, in his liability there is one less failure, but due to the colossal downtime, his prospects in battle seem more than vague.

Yes, Dominic probably has not completely squandered his skill and is able to demonstrate amazing possession of his legs in a cage, but this is clearly not enough. For the past three years he worked as a commentator, while Sehudo regularly fought and defeated the strongest. It was he who interrupted the record unbeaten run of Demetrius Johnson and crushed TJ Dillashaw, with whom the same Dominic had a very equal five-round match at the time. Undoubtedly, the return of the lightweight legend is a landmark event, but it can turn into a huge disappointment. It is possible that the battle will end with the humiliation of the illustrious veteran and draw a line under his career.

Francis Ngannu - Jairzinho Rosenstrike

If in the Sehudo-Cruz match it is hardly worth expecting a knockout, then this duel is simply obliged to end ahead of schedule. At least because it will meet some of the brightest punchers of the heavy division at the moment. So, nine out of ten career victories were won by Rosenstrike with the help of the hardest blows, and although Ngannu has a slightly lower percentage (10 out of 14), he always won ahead of schedule. In the remaining four cases, he gained the upper hand by surrender.

If you believe the bookmakers, then Ngannu is considered a favorite, which is quite reasonable. They speak for him as much more experience and an advantage in anthropometry. Despite the same growth, in the span of his hands he exceeds Jairzinho by 13 cm. The Surinamese will be forced to move closer, which will only increase the risk of being on the floor. In addition, the December battle with Alistair Overeem probably affected Rosenstrike's chances. He had to spend almost all the allotted time in the octagon with the Dutchman - five rounds, while in December 2017, Francis had 102 seconds to force him to capitulate.

In view of the coronavirus pandemic, the situation in the difficult category was finally confused, and the third fight between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier was postponed indefinitely. But success in the upcoming battle will certainly bring one of the fighters closer to the title. By and large, only Curtis Blades will remain on the path of Ngannu or Rosenstrike, who has a successful series of three fights.

Anthony Pettis - Donald Cerrone

This fight is of particular interest to fans of mixed martial arts with experience, because it is a long-awaited revenge. In January 2013, Pettis and Cerrone argued for the right to become a lightweight title contender, which Benson Henderson owned at that time. Then Anthony demonstrated that it is not in vain that he owns a black belt in taekwondo, and with a crushing blow to the body he sent his vis-a-vis to the ground. Subsequently, he became a champion and held two successful defenses.

From that moment in the career of both fighters there were no serious achievements. After losing the title, Pettis lost seven of 11 fights and from a superstar MMA turned into a middle peasant, known for one-sidedness and lack of willpower. Cerrone, however, won 17 victories in nine defeats, but did not become a champion. And this despite the fact that in the UFC they treated him more than loyally because of his willingness to answer the call at any time. At key moments, Donald suffered a fiasco and gave experts an occasion to discuss his psychological problems.

Despite all the disadvantages, the return match between Pettis and Cerrone promises to be a vivid spectacle that can become one of the best in 2020. Athletes are unlikely to decide to fight in the stalls, but clash in the rack, which is what fans like. It is also noteworthy that the battle will take place in the welterweight, where the more lanky Cowboy may have a slight advantage. However, Showtime has already proven that sometimes it can shine in the division up to 77 kg, as evidenced by the result of his duel with Stephen Thompson.

Alexey Oleinik - Fabrizio Werdum

Like the battle of Pettis with Cerrone, the battle of Oleinik with Werdum had every reason to be included in the main card of UFC 249. But because of the huge number of bright fighters, the matchmakers decided to evenly distribute the iconic confrontations throughout the program, so both fights were open. However, this fact is unlikely to affect the level of expectations of fans, because they have to see a real master class in wrestling on the ground.

At the moment, Oleinik and Werdum can be safely called one of the main experts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at the UFC. Both have black belts and a huge number of victories in painful and suffocating tricks. So, a Russian 46 times forced opponents to surrender, and often did this with the help of Ezekiel's strangulation. Fabrice ended his fights four times less ahead of schedule, but at the same time took on quality. Among the “victims” of the Brazilian are the legendary Anthony Rodrigo Nogueira, Alistair Overeem and Kane Velazquez, as well as both brothers Emelianenko. And for Fedor, that defeat was the first in almost ten years.

For Werdum, this fight will be the first since March 2018. In the last fight, he lost to Alexander Volkov, after which he was disqualified for using illegal drugs. Fabrice is currently 42 years old (like Oleinik, by the way), so his physical form in a duel with Alexei raises many questions. But in favor of the Brazilian speak not only his skill in jujitsu, but also excellent skills in percussion technique. In the second half of the 2010s, he significantly increased in the rack and could compete on equal terms with UFC top athletes. If Oleynik manages to survive the assault and transfer the fight to the floor, he will have chances.